金融英語泛讀:美國買房正當時

所屬教程:英語漫讀

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2022年05月14日

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The Current Situation of Buying a House in the US美國買房正當時

If you can borrow at 4. 5%or 5%over 30 years, many purchases start to look appealing.Especially if we get a hefty dose of inflation down the line.

If that happens, your monthly payments will be low and you'd get to repay the principal over time with devalued dollars. That's a double win.

Inflation isn't guaranteed：The bond markets are only predicting about 1. 4%inflation over the next 10 years, and BCA Research recently reminded clients that deflation, or falling prices, remains a danger.Unemployment is still rising and recent wages actually fell.

Yet if you had to bet from here, you'd bet on inflation in due course. The government is running massive deficits and has the printing presses at full throttle.That's the classic recipe.

When it comes to house prices, it's true they may not have fallen as far as you might expect.

A recent analysis in the Financial Analysts Journal suggested prices nationwide still weren't cheap by historical standards in relation to household incomes.

Homes were much cheaper, say, as recently as the 1970s. Furthermore:the bigger the bubble, the bigger the bust.Considering how sharply home prices climbed from 2002 to 2006，one might expect real estate to end up really, really cheap before bottoming out.And you wouldn't expect a quick rebound either.Japan still hasn't recovered from 1989.

But if you are thinking of buying a home, here's the more positive news：While overall market averages may not be as cheap as you might have expected, you can probably ignore them.

There are plenty of deals taking place far below the official average levels. The indices are masking a huge disparity in prices.Even the National Association of Realtors concedes distressed sales including foreclosures and short sales are closing about 20%below“normal”market rates.

Aggressive buyers are finding some simply terrific deals. And they're paying with cheap debt, too.

Default rates are rising. Lots of sellers are forced.

如果你能以4.5%或5%的利率獲得30年的貸款的話，那么，許多購房計劃看上去立刻就有了吸引力。如果接下來會出現較高的通貨膨脹的話，就更是如此了。

如果發(fā)生這種情況，你的月度供款就會比較低，你可以在一定時間內用貶值的美元逐漸償還掉本金。這真是兩全其美。

通貨膨脹不一定會發(fā)生：債券市場對未來10年的通貨膨脹率預期只有1.4%，而BCA 研究機構最近提醒客戶，通貨緊縮的危險依然存在。失業(yè)率仍在上升，近期的工資水平實際在下降。

不過，如果你現在必須打個賭，你應該預計到一定時候會發(fā)生通貨膨脹。政府現在有大量赤字，印鈔機正在全速運轉。這是傳統(tǒng)的應對方法。

至于房價，的確，它跌得可能不像你期待的那么多。

《金融分析師》最近的一個分析顯示，以房價與家庭收入比來衡量，與歷史水平相比，全美國范圍內的房價仍不便宜。比如在20世紀70年代，住房價格要便宜得多。

此外，泡沫越大，破裂時的破壞也越大?？纯?002—2006年房價的攀升速度吧，人們很可能預計房地產最終觸底前會非常、非常便宜。而且你也不要指望能夠迅速出現回升。日本到現在也沒從1989年的泡沫破裂中恢復過來。

但是，如果你在考慮購買住房，這里有一個較激勵人的消息：雖然總體市場平均水平或許并不像期望的那么便宜，但你可以忽略它。

有大量交易是以遠低于官方平均水平的價格成交的。房價指數掩蓋了具體價格上的巨大差異。

就連全美房地產協(xié)會也承認，廉價銷售——包括止贖房和債務減免房銷售——的銷售價格比“正?！笔袃r低約20%。