黃金泡沫已經(jīng)有4000年的歷史了，現(xiàn)在還不會結(jié)束

黃金泡沫已經(jīng)有4000年的歷史了，現(xiàn)在還不會結(jié)束

After rising for years, the price of gold is now falling sharply. Lots of people are saying the gold bubble is over. It isn't.

黃金價(jià)格在上漲了幾年之后，現(xiàn)在正急劇下跌。很多人說黃金泡沫已經(jīng)結(jié)束了。并沒有。

I have no idea whether the price of gold will rise or fall. But even if gold loses half its value tomorrow, the gold bubble won't be over.

我不知道黃金價(jià)格是漲是跌。但是，即使黃金明天貶值一半，黃金泡沫也不會結(jié)束。

Defining a bubble can be surprisingly tricky, but here's a working definition: when the price of an asset rises to a point that can't rationally be justified by fundamentals. (In that sentence, "asset" basically means anything people buy and sell as an investment. "Fundamentals" basically means the stream of payments the investment generates.)

給泡沫下定義可能非常棘手，但這里有一個(gè)有效的定義:當(dāng)一種資產(chǎn)的價(jià)格上升到一個(gè)無法用基本面合理證明的水平時(shí)。(在這句話中，“資產(chǎn)”基本上是指人們作為投資買賣的任何東西。“基本面”基本上是指投資產(chǎn)生的付款流。)

In real estate, for example, you can compare the price of a house to how much you could get if you rented the house out. This ratio has been pretty steady over the long run. But during the housing bubble, the ratio of home prices to rents shot way, way up. During the bust, it fall back toward its historic norm.

例如，在房地產(chǎn)領(lǐng)域，你可以把房子的價(jià)格和你把房子租出去后能得到多少錢相比較。長期來看，這一比率相當(dāng)穩(wěn)定。但在房地產(chǎn)泡沫期間，房價(jià)與租金的比率大幅上升。在蕭條時(shí)期，它又回到了歷史的常態(tài)。

In the stock market, you can compare stock prices to corporate profits (also known as earnings). During the dot com bubble, the price-to-earnings ratio of the stock market rose sharply, then fell back to normal levels during the bust.

在股票市場上，你可以比較股票價(jià)格和公司利潤(也稱為收益)。在互聯(lián)網(wǎng)泡沫期間，股市的市盈率急劇上升，然后在泡沫破滅時(shí)回落到正常水平。

Gold is different. Unlike real estate or stocks or other traditional investments, gold doesn't produce a stream of income — no dividends, no interest payments, no rent. There are some industrial uses for gold. But, unlike other other commodities such as copper, gold's price isn't driven by its industrial uses.

黃金是不同的。與房地產(chǎn)、股票或其他傳統(tǒng)投資不同，黃金不產(chǎn)生收入流——沒有股息、沒有利息支付、沒有租金。黃金有一些工業(yè)用途。但與銅等其他大宗商品不同，黃金價(jià)格并不受其工業(yè)用途的驅(qū)動。

For a very long time, gold has been a safe haven in times of political and economic crisis. It is still widely seen as something to buy for the worst of times, and as a hedge against high inflation. To some extent, the recent fall in the price of gold may reflect a decline in fears of imminent crisis and inflation.

很長一段時(shí)間以來，黃金一直是政治和經(jīng)濟(jì)危機(jī)時(shí)期的安全避風(fēng)港。人們?nèi)云毡檎J(rèn)為，在最壞的情況下買入黃金，并將其作為對沖高通脹的工具。在某種程度上，最近黃金價(jià)格的下跌可能反映出人們對即將到來的危機(jī)和通貨膨脹的擔(dān)憂有所減輕。

As the economist Tim Harford told us a few years back:

正如經(jīng)濟(jì)學(xué)家蒂姆•哈福德幾年前告訴我們的那樣:

... it's just not clear what the fundamental value of gold is. It's worth something because people have always thought it's worth something. And that's really weird, because what it tells you is gold is in a 4,000-year-old bubble. And if it's lasted 4,000 years, maybe it will last another 4,000 years. Who am I to say?

…黃金的基本價(jià)值是什么并不清楚。它有價(jià)值是因?yàn)槿藗兛偸钦J(rèn)為它有價(jià)值。這很奇怪，因?yàn)樗嬖V你黃金處于一個(gè)4000年前的泡沫中。如果它持續(xù)了4000年，可能還會再持續(xù)4000年。我該對誰說呢?