海平面上升的驚人事實(shí)

海平面上升的驚人事實(shí)

The ocean is coming for us. Global sea levels are now rising by 3.6 millimeters per year, up from an average rate of 1.4 mm per year last century. In just 80 years, the ocean could be more than 1 meter (3.3 feet) taller than it is today.

大海在向我們逼近。目前，全球海平面正以每年3.6毫米的速度上升，而上個(gè)世紀(jì)的平均速度為每年1.4毫米。僅僅在80年內(nèi)，海洋的高度就可能超過(guò)今天的1米(3.3英尺)。

Up to 216 million people currently live on land that will be below sea level or regular flood levels by 2100. (Photo: Shutterstock)

To help put things in perspective, here's a deeper dive on rising seas:

為了幫助我們正確看待問(wèn)題，我們來(lái)深入研究一下海平面上升:

1. Global sea levels have already risen by 8 inches (200 mm) since 1880.

自1880年以來(lái)，全球海平面已經(jīng)上升了8英寸(200毫米)。

NASA's Earth Observatory

Most of those historical data come from tide-gauge measurements, which are now complemented by satellite observations.

這些歷史數(shù)據(jù)大多來(lái)自潮汐測(cè)量，現(xiàn)在衛(wèi)星觀測(cè)補(bǔ)充了這些測(cè)量數(shù)據(jù)。

2. Not only are sea levels rising; the rate of their rise is rising.

海平面不僅在上升;他們的增長(zhǎng)速度正在加快。

This chart shows the rate at which sea-level rise is increasing from year to year. (Image: NASA GSFC)

On average, sea levels rose by 1.4 mm from 1900 to 2000. The yearly pace had surpassed 3 mm by 2010, and now it's up to 3.6 mm per year, according to the IPCC.

從1900年到2000年，海平面平均上升了1.4毫米。政府間氣候變化專門(mén)委員會(huì)(IPCC)的數(shù)據(jù)顯示，到2010年，中國(guó)每年的溫室氣體排放量已經(jīng)超過(guò)了300萬(wàn)立方米，現(xiàn)在已經(jīng)達(dá)到了3.6萬(wàn)立方米。

3. Every vertical inch of sea-level rise moves the ocean 50 to 100 inches inland.

海平面每垂直上升一英寸，海洋就會(huì)向內(nèi)陸移動(dòng)50至100英寸。

Rising seas worsen regular flooding — like this 2015 high tide in Miami Beach — for many coastal cities. Miami is in the midst of a five-year, $400 million effort to upgrade its stormwater pump program. (Photo: Joe Raedle/Getty Images)

One inch may not sound like much, but it's an extra inch of ocean, not water in a rain gauge. Earth's oceans hold about 321 million cubic miles of water, and are generally more like a bowl than a beaker, with sloping sides. According to NASA, every vertical inch of sea-level rise covers 50 to 100 lateral inches (1.3 to 2.5 meters) of beach.

一英寸可能聽(tīng)起來(lái)不多，但它是額外的一英寸海洋，而不是雨量計(jì)中的水。地球上的海洋擁有大約3.21億立方英里的水，通常更像一個(gè)碗而不是一個(gè)燒杯，有傾斜的邊。據(jù)美國(guó)宇航局稱，海平面每垂直上升一英寸，就會(huì)覆蓋50到100英寸(1.3到2.5米)的沙灘。

4.Sea levels could rise another 1.3 meters (4.3 feet) in the next 80 years.

未來(lái)80年，海平面可能再上升1.3米(4.3英尺)。

This map shows areas that would flood (marked in red) due to 1-meter sea-level rise. (Image: NASA)

In its September 2019 report, the IPCC raised its upper projection for sea levels at the end of this century, warning the ocean could rise by 1.1 meters (3.6 feet) before 2100. Some projections go even higher — a 2016 study, for example, suggested global sea levels will likely rise 0.5 to 1.3 meters (1.6 to 4.3 feet) by the end of this century if greenhouse gas emissions aren't rapidly reduced. Even if the 2015 Paris Agreement does spur ambitious climate policy, sea levels are still projected to rise 20 to 60 cm (7.8 to 23.6 inches) by 2100. Taken with the longer-term effects from melting ice sheets in Greenland and Antarctica, that means any strategy to endure sea-level rise must involve adaptation plans as well as efforts to slow the trend.

在2019年9月的報(bào)告中，IPCC提高了對(duì)本世紀(jì)末海平面的最高預(yù)測(cè)，警告稱2100年前海平面可能上升1.1米(3.6英尺)。一些預(yù)測(cè)甚至更高——例如，2016年的一項(xiàng)研究表明，如果溫室氣體排放不迅速減少，到本世紀(jì)末全球海平面可能會(huì)上升0.5至1.3米(1.6至4.3英尺)。即使2015年的《巴黎協(xié)定》確實(shí)刺激了雄心勃勃的氣候政策，到2100年，海平面預(yù)計(jì)仍將上升20至60厘米(7.8至23.6英寸)?？紤]到格陵蘭島和南極洲冰蓋融化的長(zhǎng)期影響，這意味著任何忍受海平面上升的戰(zhàn)略都必須包括適應(yīng)計(jì)劃以及減緩這一趨勢(shì)的努力。

5.Up to 216 million people currently live on land that will be below sea level or regular flood levels by 2100.

到2100年，將有多達(dá)2.16億人生活在低于海平面或正常洪水水位的土地上。

Higher sea levels can exacerbate storm surges, like this 2013 flood in Wenzhou, China. (Photo: STR/AFP/Getty Images)

The situation is also urgent for low-lying island nations like Kiribati, the Maldives, the Marshall Islands and the Solomon Islands, where land is already so close to sea level that a few inches make a world of difference. Some are even mulling mass relocations — the government of Kiribati, for one, has a web page outlining its strategy for "migration with dignity." A town on Taro Island, the capital of Choiseul Province in the Solomon Islands, is also planning to move its entire population in response to rising seas. The small community of Newtok, Alaska, has already begun the difficult process of transplanting itself away from the encroaching coast.

對(duì)于基里巴斯、馬爾代夫、馬紹爾群島和所羅門(mén)群島等地勢(shì)較低的島國(guó)來(lái)說(shuō)，情況也很緊迫。這些國(guó)家的陸地已經(jīng)非常接近海平面，只要幾英寸高，就會(huì)造成天壤之別。有些人甚至在考慮大規(guī)模搬遷——比如基里巴斯的政府，就有一個(gè)網(wǎng)頁(yè)概述了它的“有尊嚴(yán)的移民”戰(zhàn)略。所羅門(mén)群島喬瑟爾省首府塔羅島上的一個(gè)小鎮(zhèn)也計(jì)劃遷移全部人口，以應(yīng)對(duì)海平面上升。阿拉斯加紐托克的一個(gè)小社區(qū)已經(jīng)開(kāi)始了將自己從不斷侵蝕的海岸移植出去的艱難過(guò)程。