中國(guó)為何小車(chē)企眾多？

More than 250 miles south-east of Beijing lies Zibo, home to one of China’s newest carmakers, Sinogold.

淄博市地處北京東南方向250英里以外，中國(guó)新成立的車(chē)企之一國(guó)金汽車(chē)(Sinogold)就坐落在該市。

Its new plant, built on a greenfield site and costing more than $1bn, is filled with the latest car-assembly robots, ready to produce hundreds of thousands of vehicles a year.

國(guó)金汽車(chē)耗資逾10億美元，在一個(gè)未開(kāi)發(fā)過(guò)的地塊上建起了新工廠(chǎng)，廠(chǎng)子里到處是最新款的汽車(chē)組裝機(jī)器人，預(yù)計(jì)每年可生產(chǎn)數(shù)十萬(wàn)輛汽車(chē)。

The state-owned company did not exist two years ago and its entry into the market adds to the list of more than 100 companies in China with a licence to make cars.

這家成立不到兩年的國(guó)有企業(yè)進(jìn)入市場(chǎng)，標(biāo)志著中國(guó)擁有汽車(chē)制造牌照的100多家企業(yè)名單上再添一家。

“There are many Sinogolds sprouting up in cities across China,” says Michael Dunne, a consultant who has specialised in the factors affecting China’s automotive industry.

著重研究中國(guó)汽車(chē)業(yè)影響因素的咨詢(xún)顧問(wèn)鄧凱(Michael Dunne)表示：“中國(guó)各地的城市如雨后春筍般出現(xiàn)了許多‘國(guó)金汽車(chē)’。”

“Every province and city wants to have its own auto company,” he says.

他說(shuō)：“各省市都想有自己的汽車(chē)企業(yè)。”

There are already indications, however, that change is coming, driven not by local or central government initiatives but motoring consumers. 然而，已經(jīng)有跡象顯示，變化正在來(lái)臨，這種變化不是受地方政府或者中央政府的舉措推動(dòng)，而是由汽車(chē)消費(fèi)者推動(dòng)。

“As the market demand has slowed down people have become more picky,” says Robin Zhu, an analyst at Bernstein, a research and brokerage firm in Hong Kong. “Better brands have grown.”

香港研究和經(jīng)紀(jì)公司——伯恩斯坦研究公司(Bernstein Research)的分析師Robin Zhu表示：“隨著市場(chǎng)需求放緩，人們變得更加挑剔。比較好的品牌已經(jīng)發(fā)展了起來(lái)。”

The quality of the vehicles is also improving. The standard of Chinese-built vehicles is fast approaching those of cars sold by international brands in China, according to a survey by JD Power, a car rating company.

汽車(chē)質(zhì)量也在改善。據(jù)汽車(chē)評(píng)級(jí)公司JD Power的調(diào)查顯示，中國(guó)造汽車(chē)的標(biāo)準(zhǔn)正在迅速趕上那些國(guó)際品牌在華銷(xiāo)售的汽車(chē)。

In 2000, Chinese cars had 834 problems per 100 vehicles, which was double the international average.

2000年，中國(guó)汽車(chē)的百輛車(chē)故障數(shù)是834個(gè)，這是國(guó)際平均水平的兩倍。

By this year the gap had narrowed sharply, with Chinese groups being given a score of 112, while international groups registered 99.

到了今年，這個(gè)差距急劇縮小，中國(guó)汽車(chē)的百輛車(chē)故障數(shù)是112個(gè)，而國(guó)際水平是99個(gè)。

At the same time, the MG GS has become the first Chinese car to achieve the highest crash safety score of five stars from Ancap, an assessment agency based in Australia.

與此同時(shí)，名爵銳騰(MG GS)成為首款在澳大利亞評(píng)級(jí)機(jī)構(gòu)Ancap的安全碰撞測(cè)試中獲得五星評(píng)級(jí)的中國(guó)汽車(chē)。

Behind much of the improvement is western know-how. The listed carmaker, Geely, benefits from the fact that Zhejiang Geely, its Chinese owner, also owns Volvo. This allows it access to the Swedish company’s designs and standards as well as the opportunity to develop joint manufacturing systems.

這種改善很大程度上歸功于西方技術(shù)。上市車(chē)企吉利(Geely)受益于如下事實(shí)，即其中國(guó)所有者浙江吉利(Zhejiang Geely)也擁有瑞典的沃爾沃(Volvo)。這讓它可以接近沃爾沃的設(shè)計(jì)和標(biāo)準(zhǔn)，而且還有機(jī)會(huì)開(kāi)發(fā)聯(lián)合制造系統(tǒng)。

The six largest carmakers are almost entirely state-owned and there are several joint ventures with international carmakers such as Volkswagen and General Motors, allowing them an insight into overseas manufacturing practices.

中國(guó)六大汽車(chē)制造商幾乎都是國(guó)有企業(yè)，還有幾家是與大眾汽車(chē)(Volkswagen)和通用汽車(chē)(General Motors)等國(guó)際車(chē)企組建的合資企業(yè)，這讓它們能夠了解海外的制造方法。

The Shanghai Automotive Industry Corporation-VW partnership and First Auto Works-VW partnership each produced more than 1.2m cars in the first eight months of 2017, while the SAIC-GM joint venture made 1.17m, according to Bernstein.

伯恩斯坦的數(shù)據(jù)顯示，在2017年頭8個(gè)月，上汽(Shanghai Automotive Industry Corporation)與大眾組建的合資企業(yè)以及一汽(First Auto Works)與大眾的合資企業(yè)分別生產(chǎn)了逾120萬(wàn)輛汽車(chē)，上汽通用合資企業(yè)生產(chǎn)了117萬(wàn)輛汽車(chē)。

Mr Dunne says the six largest state-owned groups and their respective joint ventures account for about three quarters of the cars produced in China.

鄧凱表示，六大國(guó)企和它們各自的合資企業(yè)加起來(lái)占到中國(guó)汽車(chē)產(chǎn)量的四分之三。

There are then private groups, from Great Wall and Geely to BYD, the company backed by Warren Buffett.

接下來(lái)是民營(yíng)汽車(chē)制造商，從長(zhǎng)城(Great Wall)和吉利到沃倫•巴菲特(Warren Buffett)支持的比亞迪(BYD)。

After these, the list of carmakers tails off significantly in scale, with a multitude of stragglers, some verging on insignificance.

除此之外，還有許多規(guī)模很小的汽車(chē)制造商，很多落后于業(yè)內(nèi)水平，一些企業(yè)近乎無(wú)足輕重。

In the first eight months of the year, Zhejiang Feidie in Hangzhou City made only 350 vehicles while GAC Gonow, a subsidiary of GAC based in the coastal city of Taizhou, Zhejiang, has made just four, says Bernstein.

伯恩斯坦表示，在今年頭8個(gè)月，杭州市的浙江飛碟(Zhejiang Feidie)只生產(chǎn)了350輛汽車(chē)，而位于浙江臺(tái)州的廣汽吉奧(GAC Gonow)僅生產(chǎn)了4輛汽車(chē)。廣汽吉奧是廣汽(GAC)旗下的子公司。

The reason behind this unusual and thoroughly uneconomical set-up lies in China’s power structure. While central government exercises huge control, local authorities and regions also have large amounts of autonomy. “The governments behind these things will only give up when the cash burn becomes very painful,” says Mr Zhu.

創(chuàng)立這種異常且極其不經(jīng)濟(jì)的車(chē)企的背后原因是中國(guó)的權(quán)力結(jié)構(gòu)。盡管中央政府掌控著巨大的控制權(quán)，但地方政府和地區(qū)也有很大的自主權(quán)。Robin Zhu表示：“推動(dòng)這種浪潮的地方政府只有在燒錢(qián)燙手的時(shí)候才會(huì)放棄。”

Mr Dunne says efforts by central government to encourage consolidation have failed because of local opposition. “China is still home to so many dozens of automakers. The local powers have clearly had their way.”

鄧凱表示，中央政府鼓勵(lì)整合的努力由于地方政府的反對(duì)而失敗。“中國(guó)仍然有好幾十家汽車(chē)制造商。地方權(quán)力顯然在一意孤行。”

Even if the carmakers are owned by central rather than regional government, there will still be serious opposition to combining centrally owned groups.

即便是中央所有、而非地方政府所有的汽車(chē)制造商，整合也會(huì)遭遇強(qiáng)大阻力。

Projects that would struggle to raise financing in a normal market can be made to happen with political backing.

在一個(gè)正常市場(chǎng)中很難融資的項(xiàng)目可能會(huì)在政治支持下融到資金。

In the case of Sinogold, local authorities instructed banks to make the loans that allowed the construction of the 200,000-per-year vehicle factory.

拿國(guó)金汽車(chē)來(lái)說(shuō)，當(dāng)?shù)卣椭甘俱y行放貸，讓國(guó)金能夠建設(shè)年產(chǎn)20萬(wàn)輛汽車(chē)的工廠(chǎng)。

Two of the largest players are SAIC and Beijing Automotive Industry Corporation. In a normal market, they would combine to use their enlarged scale to cut costs and produce better vehicles, says Mr Dunne.

在中國(guó)最大的汽車(chē)制造商當(dāng)中，有兩家是上汽和北汽(Beijing Automotive Industry Corporation)。鄧凱表示，在一個(gè)正常的市場(chǎng)中，它們會(huì)合并以利用擴(kuò)大后的規(guī)模來(lái)削減成本并制造更好的汽車(chē)。

“For the city of Shanghai that’s a powerful enterprise,” he adds. “They would push back hard against any efforts to consolidate with the city of Beijing. It’s impossible to overstate the power of local authorities.”

他補(bǔ)充稱(chēng)：“對(duì)上海市來(lái)說(shuō)，這是一家實(shí)力強(qiáng)大的企業(yè)。他們會(huì)強(qiáng)烈反對(duì)與北京市整合的事情。地方政府的權(quán)力之大難以言表。”