如何投資于轉(zhuǎn)型中的“新中國”？
兩年前，中國股市引起全球驚慌。由于交易員們對(duì)全球第二大經(jīng)濟(jì)體的增長前景感到擔(dān)憂，中國股市暴跌。
The rout soon spread across US and European markets, causing such mayhem that Apple’s stock momentarily plunged 13 per cent. About half of the stocks listed on the Chinese market were temporarily suspended from trading.
這場(chǎng)大跌很快蔓延到了美國和歐洲市場(chǎng)，兵荒馬亂之下，蘋果(Apple)股價(jià)頃刻間下跌了13%。中國市場(chǎng)上大約一半的股票停牌。
Today, China’s fortunes have improved dramatically in the eyes of international investors. Chinese equity funds have been the best-performing asset class for UK investors in the year-to-date, and plenty of emerging market and global equity managers are excited about the market’s long-term growth prospects.
如今，在國際投資者眼中，中國的形勢(shì)已大為好轉(zhuǎn)。今年迄今為止，對(duì)英國的投資者們來說，中國股票基金是表現(xiàn)最好的資產(chǎn)類別;許多新興市場(chǎng)和全球基金公司都對(duì)中國市場(chǎng)的長期增長前景感到興奮。
“Basically we’ve gone from alarms and blue lights flashing that China is about to crash, to thinking it’s pretty much steady as she goes,” says Gary Greenberg, head of global emerging markets at Hermes, the asset manager.
“預(yù)示中國即將崩盤的警報(bào)和藍(lán)燈算是熄滅了，我們開始認(rèn)為她運(yùn)行得相當(dāng)平穩(wěn)，”資產(chǎn)管理公司Hermes的全球新興市場(chǎng)主管加里•格林伯格(Gary Greenberg)表示。
That is not to say that all fund managers are rushing back in. According to research by Goldman Sachs, global and emerging market fund managers are still underweight in China against their broader indices — although they have been gradually increasing their exposure over the year.
這不是說所有的基金管理公司都趕緊重返中國市場(chǎng)了，高盛(Goldman Sachs)的研究顯示，全球及新興市場(chǎng)的基金管理公司在中國的配置比例仍然偏低——盡管今年他們逐漸加大了在中國市場(chǎng)的敞口。
Goldman says Asian markets are up 25 per cent since the start of 2017 — their best performance since the post-financial crisis recovery in 2009. Funds investing in China returned nearly 19 per cent to investors on average over the six months to June 30, according to separate data from Morningstar.
高盛稱亞洲市場(chǎng)自2017年初以來上漲了25%——這是自2009年金融危機(jī)過后市場(chǎng)展開復(fù)蘇以來的最佳表現(xiàn)。另外，晨星(Morningstar)的數(shù)據(jù)顯示，在中國投資的基金今年前6個(gè)月平均為投資者贏得近19%的回報(bào)率。
It all sounds like good news for investors — but have the blue flashing lights really gone away? FT Money examines the long-term case for investing in China, the likely risks and rewards, and the best ways into this fast-changing market.
對(duì)于投資者來說這些都是好消息——但是藍(lán)色警示燈真的不見了嗎?FT Money分析了從長遠(yuǎn)來看投資中國的理由、可能的風(fēng)險(xiǎn)和回報(bào)，以及進(jìn)入這個(gè)瞬息萬變的市場(chǎng)的最佳途徑。
Playing chicken
考驗(yàn)勇氣
For all the country’s recent good performance, investors still have plenty of concerns about China’s economy. Rather than a roaring dragon, James Kynge, the FT’s emerging markets editor, likens it to a “Chicken Licken economy”.
即便中國市場(chǎng)近來表現(xiàn)良好，投資者對(duì)中國經(jīng)濟(jì)仍有頗多擔(dān)憂。FT新興市場(chǎng)編輯金奇(James Kynge)認(rèn)為，與其說它是一條咆哮的巨龍，不如將它比喻成“小雞里肯式的經(jīng)濟(jì)”(Chicken Licken economy，來源于英國童話故事《小雞里肯》，一只小雞被樹上掉下來的果子砸到了，她就以為天要掉下來了——譯者注)。
“What investors are worried about is whether the sky is going to fall in,” he says. “Two years ago a lot of them thought it would. Now, very few of them do.”
“投資者們擔(dān)心的是，天會(huì)不會(huì)塌下來，”金奇說。“兩年前，很多投資者都認(rèn)為會(huì)。而現(xiàn)在，很少有人會(huì)這么想。”
In 2016, China grew at its slowest pace since 1990, as its manufacturing and construction industries slowed and fears abounded about its debt levels.
2016年，隨著中國的制造業(yè)和建筑業(yè)增長放緩，債務(wù)水平引發(fā)廣泛擔(dān)憂，中國的經(jīng)濟(jì)增長速度降至1990年以來最慢。
According to the Bank of International Settlements, China’s total debt has grown from $6tn at the end of the financial crisis to almost $28tn at the end of 2016. This means its total debt is equivalent to 260 per cent of its GDP, while the debts of Chinese companies are about 170 per cent of GDP.
根據(jù)國際清算銀行(Bank for International Settlements)的數(shù)據(jù)，2016年底，中國的債務(wù)總額已從經(jīng)濟(jì)危機(jī)結(jié)束時(shí)的6萬億美元，增長到將近28萬億美元。這表示中國的債務(wù)總額相當(dāng)于其國內(nèi)生產(chǎn)總值(GDP)的260%，而中國企業(yè)的債務(wù)約為GDP的170%。
Standard & Poor’s, the credit rating agency, downgraded the country’s sovereign debt by one notch this week, following a similar move by Moody’s in May.
信用評(píng)級(jí)機(jī)構(gòu)標(biāo)準(zhǔn)普爾(Standard & Poor's)近日將中國的主權(quán)信用評(píng)級(jí)下調(diào)了一個(gè)等級(jí)，今年5月穆迪(Moody’s)就采取了同樣做法。
In August, the International Monetary Fund warned that the Chinese government was not doing enough to rein in the country’s “dangerous” debt levels, which it said would make it more difficult for policymakers to react to a potential “loss of confidence” in asset and wealth management products.
今年8月，國際貨幣基金組織(International Monetary Fund)警告說，中國政府沒有采取足夠的措施遏制中國“危險(xiǎn)的”債務(wù)水平，稱這將使政策制定者更難應(yīng)對(duì)這種局面——投資者對(duì)資產(chǎn)和理財(cái)產(chǎn)品可能“喪失信心”。
The products, which have underpinned the expansion of China’s shadow banking sector, are generally sold to Chinese retail investors by its banks — but investors have been buying under the illusion that the banks are guaranteeing their returns.
這些助長了中國銀子銀行業(yè)擴(kuò)張的投資產(chǎn)品，一般由各家銀行銷售給中國的散戶投資者——但投資者購買這些產(chǎn)品時(shí)一直存在一種錯(cuò)覺，認(rèn)為銀行能保障他們的投資回報(bào)。
Julian Evans-Pritchard, China economist at consultancy Capital Economics, says banks have been willing to stand behind these products so far because selling them has proven so lucrative. However, the size of the exposure could prove costly.
凱投宏觀(Capital Economics)的中國經(jīng)濟(jì)學(xué)家朱利安•埃文斯-普里查德(Julian Evans-Pritchard)稱，到目前為止，銀行一直很樂意為這些產(chǎn)品站臺(tái)，因?yàn)殇N售這些產(chǎn)品帶來的利潤非?？捎^。然而，巨大的敞口規(guī)模意味著可能要付出高昂代價(jià)。
He warns that if the banks’ implicit guarantee unravels, households might rush into withdrawing funds. This would force down revenues at Chinese asset managers and cause problems for smaller banks which rely on asset managers as a funding source.
他警告說，如果銀行的這種隱性擔(dān)保不靈了，散戶們可能會(huì)蜂擁撤資。這將令中國資產(chǎn)管理公司的收入縮水，并給依賴這些資產(chǎn)管理公司作為資金來源的小銀行帶來麻煩。
Concerns about high debt levels and the shadow finance sector have caused some fund managers to steer clear of China altogether. Others point to recent efforts by local regulators to tighten financial conditions. In July, China’s central bank — the People’s Bank of China — announced it would do more to regulate the sale of investments by banks.
對(duì)中國的高債務(wù)水平及影子金融業(yè)的擔(dān)憂，讓一些基金經(jīng)理對(duì)中國市場(chǎng)敬而遠(yuǎn)之。另一些人則指出，中國監(jiān)管機(jī)構(gòu)最近采取舉措收緊金融狀況。今年7月，中國的中央銀行——中國人民銀行——宣布要對(duì)銀行銷售的投資產(chǎn)品加大監(jiān)管力度。
“We are structurally worried about the level of debt, of course,” says Nadège Dufossé, head of asset allocation at French fund manager Candriam. “But the Chinese government is tightening financial conditions — it is trying to manage the risk, so for the time being, I’m less worried.”
“誠然，從債務(wù)結(jié)構(gòu)上來說，我們很擔(dān)心中國的債務(wù)水平，”法國基金管理公司Candriam資產(chǎn)配置部負(fù)責(zé)人娜代治•迪福斯(Nadège Dufossé)說。“但中國政府正在收緊金融狀況——正在試圖管理風(fēng)險(xiǎn)，所以就目前而言，我不那么擔(dān)心了。”
Karine Hirn, chief executive officer at fund house East Capital Asia, agrees: “The regulator has shown it wants to do something about it, and is tackling the most problematic parts of the sector.”
基金公司East Capital Asia的首席執(zhí)行官習(xí)卡琳(Karine Hirn)對(duì)此表示贊同：“中國的監(jiān)管機(jī)構(gòu)已表現(xiàn)出希望對(duì)此采取一些舉措，并正在解決該行業(yè)中問題最嚴(yán)重的部分。”
The Wild East “東方蠻荒之地”(Wild East)
The Chinese government has shown it is willing to intervene in markets when it feels it is necessary — but this can be bad news where investors are concerned.
中國政府已經(jīng)表明，愿意在它認(rèn)為有必要的時(shí)候出手干預(yù)市場(chǎng)，但就投資者來說，這可能是壞消息。
This year, China’s foreign exchange reserves fell to below $3tn as ambitious companies made a series of large overseas acquisitions. This prompted a crackdown from Beijing, which has accused some of its larger companies of posing “systemic risk” — which, in turn, resulted in the high-profile detention of Chinese businessman Wu Xiaohui, the head of insurance group Anbang.
今年，由于一些雄心勃勃的企業(yè)在海外進(jìn)行了一系列的大手筆收購，中國外匯儲(chǔ)備下降至3萬億美元以下。這招致北京方面的打擊，后者指責(zé)一些大公司帶來“系統(tǒng)性風(fēng)險(xiǎn)”，從而導(dǎo)致了一起引人注目的事件——中國商人、保險(xiǎn)集團(tuán)安邦(Anbang)董事長吳小暉被有關(guān)部門帶走。
Mr Greenberg of Hermes says he thinks about Chinese companies’ “social licence to operate” when looking at whether to invest. “They are very aware of it,” he says. “You play the game and you fund a school and a reservoir, and you are a good citizen. The amount of work Alibaba has done in its home city [Hangzhou] is phenomenal,” he adds. Conversely, says Mr Greenberg, companies that take “lots of money” out of the country soon learn the consequences. “In China, nobody will let you get away with that.”
Hermes的格林伯格表示，他在權(quán)衡是否投資的時(shí)候會(huì)考慮中國公司的“社會(huì)運(yùn)營牌照”。他說：“他們顯然清楚這一點(diǎn)。”他補(bǔ)充稱，“你遵守游戲規(guī)則，為學(xué)校和水庫提供資金，你是一個(gè)好市民。阿里巴巴(Alibaba)在其總部所在地杭州做了大量的工作。”格林伯格表示，反過來，那些將“大量資金”帶出中國的公司很快明白了后果。“在中國，沒有人會(huì)讓你這么做卻不受懲罰。”
Corporate governance is another issue. Chinese companies are not subject to the same accounting and legal rules as those in Europe or the US. Broadly, though, fund managers argue that companies in emerging markets will always run the risk of having weaker corporate governance structures than those in developed markets.
公司治理是另一個(gè)問題。中國企業(yè)不受歐洲或美國那套會(huì)計(jì)和法律準(zhǔn)則的限制。然而，普遍而言，基金經(jīng)理們辯稱，新興市場(chǎng)公司的企業(yè)治理結(jié)構(gòu)總是可能比發(fā)達(dá)市場(chǎng)的公司弱一些。
“Admittedly, corporate governance standards overall are not up to developed market standards,” says Jennifer Wu, fund manager at JPMorgan. “I’d say we are pragmatic in how we incorporate governance views and considerations — we won’t purely exclude if there are governance issues, but we work with management to see how they could do things differently.”
摩根大通(JPMorgan)的基金經(jīng)理Jennifer Wu表示：“誠然，中國公司治理標(biāo)準(zhǔn)總的來說比不上發(fā)達(dá)市場(chǎng)的標(biāo)準(zhǔn)。我想說，我們?cè)诓杉{有關(guān)治理方面的意見和考量時(shí)會(huì)抱著務(wù)實(shí)態(tài)度——如果有治理問題，我們不會(huì)完全排除，而是會(huì)與管理層合作，看看他們能否改變做法。”
Is there a risk that the chief executive of a Chinese company you have invested in will disappear? “Yes,” says Mr Greenberg. “It’s a risk that the corporate chiefs get too big for their breeches. The requirement in China is that you stay out of politics and you co-operate.”
你投資的中國公司的首席執(zhí)行官有失蹤的風(fēng)險(xiǎn)嗎?“有的，”格林伯格表示，“有的企業(yè)首席執(zhí)行官可能變得妄自尊大。在中國，你絕不能介入政治并且要保持合作。”
A-shares A股
Despite these potential problems, Chinese markets are becoming increasingly open to overseas investors. While several major Chinese companies are listed in Hong-Kong or New York and already available to overseas investors, those listed in mainland China are much harder to access.
盡管有著這些潛在的問題，但中國市場(chǎng)對(duì)境外投資者越來越開放。數(shù)家大型中國公司在香港或者紐約上市，境外投資者已經(jīng)可以投資，但如果他們要投資那些在中國內(nèi)地上市的公司則會(huì)困難得多。
This summer, MSCI, the emerging markets index provider, decided it would include mainland Chinese shares denominated in renminbi — so-called A-shares — in its global and emerging market indices for the first time from next year.
今年夏天，新興市場(chǎng)股票指數(shù)提供商MSCI明晟決定，從明年起首次將人民幣計(jì)價(jià)的中國內(nèi)地股票(所謂的A股)納入其全球和新興市場(chǎng)指數(shù)。
This will automatically funnel more of the world’s wealth into China’s stock markets — every passive fund tracking an MSCI index featuring Chinese shares will be duty bound to buy them from next year. It is estimated that about $1.6tn of assets in funds globally follow MSCI’s emerging markets index.
這將自動(dòng)讓更多的全球財(cái)富進(jìn)入中國股市——每個(gè)追蹤包含中國股票的MSCI明晟指數(shù)的被動(dòng)基金從明年開始都將必須買入A股。據(jù)估計(jì)，全球基金大約有1.6萬億美元資產(chǎn)在追蹤MSCI新興市場(chǎng)指數(shù)。
Many brokers and investors say this heralds an enormous victory for globalisation and cross-border investment. “This is the start of internationalisation,” says Ms Hirn, of asset manager East Capital. “Everyone is excited for good reason.”
許多經(jīng)紀(jì)商和投資者表示，這預(yù)示著全球化和跨境投資的重大勝利。資產(chǎn)管理公司East Capital的習(xí)卡琳表示：“這是國際化的開始。所有人都有理由感到興奮。”
Ms Hirn says the inclusion of A-shares has already brought new interest from overseas investors — even though the portion of the Chinese stock market that will be included is very small. “You cannot ignore this market any more,” she says. “My colleague is just back from Shenzhen and he said he wasn’t the only foreigner any more.”
習(xí)卡琳表示，將A股納入MSCI明晟指數(shù)的決定讓海外投資者產(chǎn)生了新的興趣——即便A股所占的比例非常小。她說：“你不能再忽視這個(gè)市場(chǎng)。我的同事剛剛從深圳回來，他說自己不再是那里唯一的老外了。”
Others are less excited, and point out that even MSCI is being cautious. To begin with, only about 5 per cent of the weight of each Chinese company’s full market value will be included in the index, and only 222 large-cap companies will be eligible.
其他人則沒有那么興奮，他們指出，即便是MSCI也保持謹(jǐn)慎。MSCI最初僅以流通市值的5%納入所選A股，而且只有222只大盤股有資格被納入。
This has left some investors shrugging their shoulders. “Really, it’s not going to make a huge difference to flows and valuations of A-shares, given the percentage inclusion in the index we’re talking about,” says Patrick Thomas, investment manager at Canaccord Genuity Wealth Management. “There’s a lot of hype about it, but it’s less than 1 per cent of the index.”
這讓一些投資者不以為然。Canaccord Genuity財(cái)富管理公司的投資經(jīng)理帕特里克•托馬斯(Patrick Thomas)表示：“真的，鑒于A股被納入我們正在談?wù)摰闹笖?shù)的比例，它不會(huì)對(duì)A股的資金流入和估值產(chǎn)生重大影響。關(guān)于這件事有很多炒作，但它在MSCI指數(shù)中的比例不足1%。”
MSCI has argued that including Chinese stocks in its indices will help the country bring its markets into line with western standards. “Future inclusion will be subject to a greater alignment of China with international accessibility and trading standards,” Sebastien Lieblich, MSCI’s global head of index management research, told the FT in June.
MSCI辯稱，納入A股將有助于中國市場(chǎng)與西方標(biāo)準(zhǔn)接軌。今年6月， MSCI指數(shù)管理研究部門全球主管塞巴斯蒂安•利布利希(Sebastien Lieblich)向英國《金融時(shí)報(bào)》表示:“今后的納入進(jìn)程將取決于中國能否更大程度地符合國際準(zhǔn)入和交易標(biāo)準(zhǔn)。”
Tomorrow’s multinationals?
明日的跨國公司?
A troublesome financial system and slowing growth mean investors in China have to be watchful. “Everyone agrees China is the biggest story for the global economy — but it’s not an easy story for your investments,” says Markus Stadlmann, chief investment officer of Lloyds Private Bank, the bank’s wealth management arm.
金融體系存在問題以及經(jīng)濟(jì)增長放緩意味著，在中國的投資者必須要當(dāng)心。“所有人都認(rèn)為，在全球經(jīng)濟(jì)中，中國是最大的故事——但就你的投資來說，它不是一個(gè)簡單的故事，”勞埃德私人銀行(Lloyds Private Bank，即勞埃德旗下的財(cái)富管理部門)首席投資官馬庫斯•施塔德爾曼(Markus Stadlmann)說。
The Chinese government wants to move the economy towards one powered by home consumers, referred to by fund managers as the “new China”. It is here, investors say, that the best investment prospects can be found.
中國政府希望將經(jīng)濟(jì)轉(zhuǎn)型為由國內(nèi)消費(fèi)者驅(qū)動(dòng)，這被一些基金經(jīng)理稱為“新中國”。投資者表示，在這個(gè)領(lǐng)域，可以找到最好的投資前景。
“Investors tend to focus too much on macro concerns, which prevents them from looking at the companies that are doing well,” says Jian Shi Cortesi, Asian equities portfolio manager at Swiss fund house GAM.
“投資者往往過于關(guān)注宏觀問題，這使他們看不到那些表現(xiàn)良好的公司，”瑞士資產(chǎn)管理公司GAM的亞洲股票投資組合經(jīng)理Jian Shi Cortesi說。
Ms Cortesi points to two high-growth technology companies whose names are familiar around the world — Alibaba (think China’s answer to Amazon — only much bigger) and Tencent, the internet giant whose app-driven business spans social media, gaming and e-commerce.
Cortesi提到了兩家高成長的中國科技公司，它們的名字在世界各地為人熟知——阿里巴巴和互聯(lián)網(wǎng)巨頭騰訊(Tencent)，前者可以說是中國的亞馬遜(Amazon)，只是規(guī)模比亞馬遜大得多，后者以應(yīng)用(app)為支柱，業(yè)務(wù)范圍覆蓋社交媒體、游戲和電子商務(wù)。
Tencent and Alibaba — listed in Hong Kong and New York respectively — are the largest and third-largest constituents of MSCI’s emerging markets index. Ms Cortesi says that among China’s mainland listed shares, there are more companies with their potential.
分別在香港和紐約上市的騰訊和阿里巴巴，是MSCI明晟新興市場(chǎng)指數(shù)中的第一大和第三大成分股。Cortesi表示，在中國內(nèi)地掛牌的上市公司中，還有更多公司具備類似這兩家公司的潛力。
“Alibaba and Tencent both started in the late 1990s or early 2000s, and over the past 10 years they’ve grown into billion-dollar companies,” Ms Cortesi says. “My job is to find these attractive companies.”
“阿里巴巴和騰訊成立于上世紀(jì)90年代末或本世紀(jì)初，過去10年里，它們都已成長為10億美元級(jí)別的公司，”Cortesi說，“我的工作就是物色這類有吸引力的公司。”
Technology stocks are part of what Ms Cortesi sees as the unfolding consumer story in China. Since 2013, she has avoided holding manufacturing stocks in her portfolios and has focused more on what ordinary Chinese people are buying.
在Cortesi看來，中國正在上演著消費(fèi)故事，而科技股正是這個(gè)故事中的一部分。自2013年以來，她一直避免在自己的投資組合中持有制造業(yè)股票，并且更多關(guān)注中國老百姓在買什么。
“We look at where people spend their salaries,” she says, noting the desire to spend more on experiences. “People are eating better quality food and drinking more expensive beverages, and people are spending more on intangible things like travel and education.”
“我們關(guān)注人們把工資花在哪里，”她說。她指出，人們?cè)敢庠隗w驗(yàn)型消費(fèi)上花更多的錢。“現(xiàn)在人們吃更優(yōu)質(zhì)的食物，喝更貴的飲料，并且把更多的錢花在旅游和教育等無形的東西上。”
Growth stocks focused on these areas are what fund managers are looking for — and what they are not finding in the manufacturing and construction sectors that used to dominate the Chinese markets. “The growth is more stable for the new economy [shares],” says Ms Dufossé of Candriam.
聚焦于這些領(lǐng)域的成長股，是基金經(jīng)理們正在尋找的東西——在曾經(jīng)在中國市場(chǎng)占據(jù)主導(dǎo)地位的制造與建筑行業(yè)，他們沒有找到這些東西。“新經(jīng)濟(jì)(股票)的增長更穩(wěn)定，”Candriam的迪福斯說。
Even investors who dislike other parts of China’s ecosystem love their tech and internet companies.
就連討厭中國生態(tài)系統(tǒng)中其他部分的投資者，都喜歡中國的科技和互聯(lián)網(wǎng)公司。
“Although people love to hate China, they love to love internet stocks in China,” says Josh Crabb, head of Asian equities at Old Mutual. “Investors are often very inconsistent,” he says, pointing out that it doesn’t make sense to buy China’s technology companies “if you think the banking system is going to implode”.
“盡管人們對(duì)中國愛恨交加，對(duì)中國互聯(lián)網(wǎng)股票卻喜愛得無以復(fù)加，”Old Mutual亞洲股票市場(chǎng)主管喬希•克拉布(Josh Crabb)說，“投資者經(jīng)常反復(fù)無常，”他說。他指出，“如果你認(rèn)為中國銀行體系會(huì)內(nèi)爆的話”，那么買入中國科技公司股票就是不合理的。
The four largest Chinese “internet” stocks — Baidu, Alibaba, Tencent and JD.com — are already popular across global equity funds, which has led to some fund managers worrying about excessive valuations — just as they do with the US technology “Fang” stocks of Facebook, Apple, Netflix and Google.
中國四大“互聯(lián)網(wǎng)股票”——百度(Baidu)、阿里巴巴、騰訊和京東(JD.com)——已頗受全球股票基金的青睞，這讓一些基金經(jīng)理們擔(dān)心這些公司的估值過高，正如他們擔(dān)心被稱為“Fang”的4家美國科技股Facebook、蘋果、Nexflix和谷歌(Google)那樣。
“Comments have been made by a number of fund managers recently [around] the sheer valuation levels of these companies,” says Patrick Thomas, investment manager at Canaccord Genuity Wealth Management. “If people think Apple and Netflix, et cetera are expensive, the same is definitely true of Alibaba and Tencent.”
“近來，很多基金經(jīng)理談?wù)摰囊粋€(gè)焦點(diǎn)是這些公司的估值水平，”Canaccord Genuity財(cái)富管理公司的托馬斯說，“如果說人們認(rèn)為蘋果和Netflix等等太貴了，那么他們對(duì)阿里巴巴和騰訊也肯定是這么認(rèn)為的。”
Cyrique Bourbon, portfolio manager at Morningstar, says whichever way you view it, China is to be viewed as a “high-risk opportunity”, partly because of corporate governance issues and a lack of transparency.
晨星投資組合經(jīng)理西里克•波旁(Cyrique Bourbon)表示，無論你如何看待中國，中國都將被視為一個(gè)“高風(fēng)險(xiǎn)的機(jī)遇”，部分原因在于公司治理問題和透明度不足。
But the upside for risk-taking investors is potentially large, says Mr Greenberg of Hermes. In an inefficient market, careful stockpickers could win big. As the country’s market opens its doors to overseas investors, today’s unheard-of stocks could turn into tomorrow’s multinationals.
但Hermes的格林伯格表示，對(duì)于敢于冒風(fēng)險(xiǎn)的投資者而言，好處可能很大。在一個(gè)效率不太高的市場(chǎng)上，懂得謹(jǐn)慎挑選個(gè)股的投資者有可能獲得高回報(bào)。隨著中國市場(chǎng)對(duì)境外投資者打開大門，今天一些默默無聞的股票可能成長為明天的跨國公司。
side bar: Gaining exposure to China
附：增加對(duì)中國股票的配置
If you are going to make the leap and allocate some of your portfolio to China, you need not buy a specialist China fund — though this might give you access to some of the smaller companies and sectors in the country. Plenty of Asia ex-Japan, emerging market, or even global equity funds allocate a portion of their capital to China.
如果你想向前邁出一大步，把自己投資組合中的部分資金配置到中國市場(chǎng)，那么你不一定要買入一只專門投資中國的基金——盡管這也許會(huì)讓你的投資覆蓋中國一些更小的公司和行業(yè)。很多除日本外亞洲、新興市場(chǎng)、甚至全球的股票基金都會(huì)配置部分資金買入中國股票。
“There’s a huge opportunity here for active management,” says Mr Stadlmann of Lloyds. “The best opportunities are there for global and emerging markets equities funds, because they have the entire playing field, and can invest in companies benefiting from Chinese growth sector by sector, but also they can invest in China if they want.”
“主動(dòng)管理策略在這里大有機(jī)會(huì)，”勞埃德的施塔德爾曼說，“對(duì)全球和新興市場(chǎng)股票基金來說，中國存在最好的機(jī)遇，因?yàn)樗鼈儠?huì)擁有整個(gè)競(jìng)技場(chǎng)，可以投資于各行各業(yè)受益于中國增長的公司，而且如果它們?cè)敢獾脑捯部梢灾苯油顿Y于中國。”
Over three and five years, the best-performing specialist China equity funds for sterling investors have all been active funds, according to figures from data provider Morningstar. These funds hold a mixture of A-shares, shares in Chinese companies listed in Hong Kong or the US, and shares listed in mainland China but trading in overseas currencies.
數(shù)據(jù)提供商晨星的數(shù)據(jù)顯示，在三到五年的時(shí)間段內(nèi)，面向英鎊投資者、專業(yè)投資中國的股票基金中表現(xiàn)最好的都是主動(dòng)型基金。這些基金同時(shí)持有中國A股、在香港或美國上市的中國公司股票，以及在中國內(nèi)地上市但以外幣交易的中國公司股票。
For retail investors, the top performing sterling-denominated funds over a three-year period have been GAM’s China Evolution, Fidelity China Focus and Henderson China Opportunities — which have returned between 77 per cent and 83 per cent over that time.
對(duì)零售投資者而言，過去3年里業(yè)績最好的英鎊計(jì)價(jià)基金是GAM的China Evolution、富達(dá)的中國聚焦基金(Fidelity China Focus)，以及亨德森(Henderson)旗下的遠(yuǎn)見中國躍升基金(Henderson China Opportunities)——它們的3年回報(bào)率都在77%至83%之間。
GAM’s fund holds Tencent and Alibaba as its largest constituents, and its biggest sector weighting is information technology. It also has a large tilt towards consumer discretionary stocks (more than a fifth of the fund is dedicated to them), and an ongoing charge figure (OCF) of 1.05 per cent.
GAM的基金對(duì)騰訊和阿里巴巴持倉最多，權(quán)重最大的行業(yè)是IT行業(yè)。該基金也持有很大比例的非必需消費(fèi)品行業(yè)股票(占資產(chǎn)比例高于五分之一)，其經(jīng)常性開支比率(OCF)是1.05%。
Henderson’s fund invests about two-thirds of its assets in Hong Kong listed Chinese companies, with only around a tenth of the fund buying A-shares. The largest holdings are Alibaba and Tencent, which make up about a fifth of the fund, and its OCF is 1.72 per cent.
亨德森的那只基金把其大約三分之二的資產(chǎn)配置于在香港上市的中國公司股票，投資于A股的比例僅為約十分之一。持股最多的是阿里巴巴和騰訊(約占基金資產(chǎn)的五分之一)，其OCF是1.72%。
Fidelity’s China Focus, run by manager Jing Ning, takes a slightly different approach. While technology and consumer cyclicals are among its top three sector weightings, it also devotes around a third of its assets to financial services. The fund has an OCF of 1.91 per cent.
富達(dá)旗下由寧靜(Jing Ning)管理的中國聚焦基金，采取了略微不同的手法。盡管科技股和周期性消費(fèi)類股是其三大重倉行業(yè)中的兩個(gè)，但該基金也用約三分之一的資產(chǎn)配置在金融服務(wù)類股票。其OCF是1.91%。
Alongside its China Focus fund, Fidelity also offers the only specialist China-focused investment trust, Fidelity China Special Situations. Formerly run by star manager Anthony Bolton, the fund hit trouble soon after its launch in 2010 when the Chinese market slumped. Unlike open-ended funds, investment trusts can use gearing to boost returns — although this can also potentially magnify losses, as it did during Mr Bolton’s early stewardship.
除了其中國聚焦基金，富達(dá)還有一只專注于中國市場(chǎng)的投資信托產(chǎn)品——富達(dá)中國特殊情況基金(Fidelity China Special Situations)。該基金此前由明星基金經(jīng)理安東尼•波頓(Anthony Bolton)管理，但在2010年發(fā)行后不久，因中國市場(chǎng)大幅下挫而遇到麻煩。跟開放式基金不同的是，投資信托可以使用杠桿來增加回報(bào)——盡管這也可能會(huì)放大虧損，正如波頓早期管理基金時(shí)發(fā)生的情況那樣。
The manager managed to turn the fund around — when he stepped down in 2014 the trust had beaten the wider Chinese stock market, but was only trading slightly above launch value. During his last day in the office, Mr Bolton admitted he had been “wrong about the market in China”.
波頓努力扭轉(zhuǎn)了該基金的頹勢(shì)——當(dāng)他于2014年卸任時(shí)，該信托已戰(zhàn)勝了中國股市大盤，但價(jià)格僅僅略高于發(fā)行時(shí)的水平。在該基金任職的最后一天，波頓承認(rèn)，他一直以來“看錯(cuò)了中國市場(chǎng)”。
Now run by Dale Nicholls, the fund has achieved a share price total return of 84.3 per cent over the past three years, and its gearing is currently 25 per cent of assets. About 40 per cent of its assets are in consumer discretionary stocks, and a further 35 per cent in information technology. Up to 10 per cent of its assets can be invested in unlisted companies — among its 20 largest holdings is Xiaoju Kuaizhi, an unlisted taxi booking app which operates across 400 cities in China. The trust’s OCF is 1.15 per cent.
該基金如今由戴爾•尼科爾斯(Dale Nicholls)管理，過去3年的總回報(bào)率為84.3%，目前的杠桿水平為資產(chǎn)的25%。其大約40%的資產(chǎn)配置于非必需消費(fèi)品行業(yè)股票，另有35%投資于IT股。不超過10%的資產(chǎn)可投資于非上市公司——其持股最多的20家公司中包括小桔快智(Xiaoju Kuaizhi)，這是一家在中國400座城市運(yùn)營的未上市的打車應(yīng)用公司。該基金的OCF為1.15%。
