巴西：世界自由秩序危機的一個縮影 ?

Fernando Henrique Cardoso has seen the bad times, the boom times, and now the crisis. As president of Brazil from 1995 to 2002, he consolidated the country’s democracy and reformed its economy. In the following decade the surge in Brazil’s fortunes caught the world’s attention, and the country was awarded both the World Cup and the Olympics.

費爾南多•恩里克•卡多佐(Fernando Henrique Cardoso)見證了巴西的糟糕時期、繁榮時期和如今的危機。擔任巴西總統(tǒng)期間(1995年至2002年)，卡多佐鞏固了巴西的民主制度，改革了國內(nèi)經(jīng)濟。在接下來的10年，巴西國內(nèi)財富的激增引起了全世界的關注，它還獲得了世界杯(World Cup)和奧運會(Olympics)的主辦權(quán)。

But sitting in his office in São Paulo last week, Mr Cardoso, now 86, calmly acknowledged that Brazil faces “a moral and economic crisis”. The economy shrank by almost 8 per cent in 2015 and 2016. President Dilma Rousseff was impeached and removed from office last year. The current president, Michel Temer, and some 40 per cent of the members of Congress are under investigation over corruption.

然而，坐在圣保羅的辦公室里，現(xiàn)年86歲的卡多佐坦然自若地承認，巴西正面臨“一場道德和經(jīng)濟危機”。巴西經(jīng)濟在2015、2016兩年萎縮了近8%?？偨y(tǒng)迪爾瑪•羅塞夫(Dilma Rousseff)去年遭到彈劾，被迫下臺?，F(xiàn)任總統(tǒng)米歇爾•特梅爾(Michel Temer)和國民議會約40%的議員都在接受腐敗調(diào)查。

This Brazilian crisis has global implications. In the good times, the country became a symbol of the triumph of liberal politics and economics around the world. In the bad times, however, Brazil’s plight has become a symptom of a global crisis in the liberal order.

巴西面臨的這場危機具有全球性意義。繁榮時期，巴西是世界各地自由的政治和經(jīng)濟理念取得偉大成就的象征。然而，艱難時期，巴西遭遇的困境又成了全球性自由秩序危機的征候。

By cutting subsidies, controlling inflation, pursuing privatisation and opening the economy up to competition, Mr Cardoso laid the foundations for a long economic expansion. His successor as president, Luiz Inácio da Silva, known as “Lula”, was a leftist who built on the liberal reforms that he had inherited. In the Lula era, Brazil’s notorious inequality was attacked through social programmes that attracted global praise.

通過削減補貼、控制通脹、推行私有化并在經(jīng)濟中引入競爭，卡多佐為巴西長期經(jīng)濟增長奠定了基礎。繼任者路易斯•伊納西奧•達席爾瓦(Luiz Inácio da Silva)——“盧拉”(Lula)——是一名左翼，其政績建立在自己繼承的自由主義改革的基礎上。盧拉時代，巴西通過推行一些社會項目改善了本國嚴重的社會不平等，贏得了全球贊譽。

As a country with a population of 207m — roughly half of South America — Brazil became an informal spokesman for the continent and an emerging world order. Through the Brics group of Brazil, Russia, India, China and South Africa, Brazil pushed for a global rebalancing of power, in a way that seemed both overdue and unthreatening. Former US president Barack Obama publicly embraced Lula, saying: “I love this guy.”

作為一個擁有2.07億人口的國家(約占南美總?cè)丝诘囊话?，巴西已成為南美大陸及新興世界秩序的非正式發(fā)言人。通過金磚國家集團(巴西、俄羅斯、印度、中國和南非)，巴西以一種看似慢了半拍但又毫無威脅的方式推動了全球力量再平衡。美國前總統(tǒng)巴拉克•奧巴馬(Barack Obama)當眾擁抱盧拉，并稱：“我喜歡這個家伙。”

But this year, Lula was convicted of corruption, and may now be barred from seeking re-election in next year’s presidential poll. His downfall is a symbol of the disappointed hopes of many poorer Brazilians. With the economy in crisis, inequality rising again, and the “car wash” corruption scandal in full flow, the Brazilian political class is widely despised. Voters are increasingly cynical and deeply polarised.

但就在今年，盧拉被判犯有貪污罪，可能被禁止在明年的總統(tǒng)選舉中尋求再任。他的倒臺象征著眾多赤貧的巴西人落空的希望。隨著經(jīng)濟陷入危機、社會不平等重新加劇以及“洗車”(Car Wash)腐敗丑聞全面爆發(fā)，巴西的政治階層受到了廣大民眾的鄙視。選民們越來越憤世嫉俗，日益陷入嚴重分化。

In a pattern now familiar in the US and Europe, populist politicians are using the crisis to move into the mainstream. An early opinion poll for the 2018 presidential election show Jair Bolsonaro, a far-right nationalist, in second place behind Lula. Mr Bolsonaro, a former military officer, has a political style that makes Donald Trump seem gentle. He dedicated his vote to impeach the president to Colonel Brilhante Ustra, who ran a squad that tortured Ms Rousseff when she was a political prisoner during Brazil’s military dictatorship.

民粹主義政客正在利用當前危機進入主流政治，這是一種如今在美國和歐洲慣見的模式。早先一項針對2018年總統(tǒng)選舉的民意調(diào)查顯示，極右翼民族主義者雅伊爾•博爾索納洛(Jair Bolsonaro)的支持率居盧拉之后，位列第二。軍人出身的博爾索納洛嚴厲的政治風格讓唐納德•特朗普(Donald Trump)都顯得遜色。博爾索納洛投票支持彈劾總統(tǒng)羅塞夫，附和布里良特•烏斯特拉上校(Brilhante Ustra)，后者領導的機構(gòu)在巴西軍事獨裁時期折磨過當時作為政治犯的羅塞夫。

Like Rodrigo Duterte, the wild-man president of the Philippines, Mr Bolsonaro is building his popularity by promising to get tough on crime. The fact that Rio de Janeiro is in the grip of a violent crime wave make his appeals for a restoration of “order” widely popular. In Brazil last week, most pundits saw Mr Bolsonaro as too extreme to win. But the reassurances I received in well-appointed offices reminded me uncomfortably of conversations in Washington in 2015, when a Trump victory was deemed inconceivable.

就像菲律賓性格張狂的總統(tǒng)羅德里戈•杜特爾特(Rodrigo Duterte)一樣，博爾索納洛正在通過承諾嚴厲打擊犯罪積聚聲望。里約熱內(nèi)盧正發(fā)生一波暴力犯罪浪潮的事實，使他發(fā)出的恢復“秩序”的呼吁受到了廣泛歡迎。在巴西，目前多數(shù)學者都認為博爾索納洛太過極端，不能贏得勝選。但坐在精心布置的辦公室里聽到這樣的話，讓我不安地想起了2015年在華盛頓的一些對話，當時特朗普勝選也被看作是不可思議的。 無論博爾索納洛勝選與否，他作為一個重要政治人物的出現(xiàn)，標志著巴西政治嚴重的兩極分化。許多左翼人士認為，盧拉與羅塞夫都是右翼勢力發(fā)動的非法政變的受害者。保守派的回應是，他們領導的勞工黨(Workers’ party)依靠腐敗行為、裙帶關系和揮霍性開支擴大了權(quán)力，拖累了巴西經(jīng)濟下滑。雙方的罵戰(zhàn)讓人不由地聯(lián)想起在特朗普治下的美國和決定退歐后的英國那種根深蒂固的黨派偏見。

Whether Mr Bolsonaro wins or not, his emergence as a serious political figure is a sign of the bitter polarisation of Brazilian politics. Many on the left argue that both Lula and Dilma are victims of an illegitimate coup by a rightwing establishment. The conservative response is that their Workers’ party built its power on corruption, patronage and wasteful spending, which dragged the economy down. The invective on both sides is strongly reminiscent of the partisanship gripping Trump’s America and Brexit Britain.

巴西面臨的危機有其內(nèi)部原因和邏輯。但它也反映了一種全球模式?？ǘ嘧舻母母锇l(fā)生在一個自由的經(jīng)濟政治理念在世界各地占據(jù)支配地位的時代。他在柏林墻倒塌六年后、巴西軍人統(tǒng)治結(jié)束10年后成為總統(tǒng)。當時，中國、印度、墨西哥、波蘭等其他處于中等收入水平的發(fā)展中國家也正在踏上自由和經(jīng)濟改革的道路。而且，當時坐鎮(zhèn)白宮的是比爾•克林頓(Bill Clinton)——一個驕傲的“全球主義者”。

Brazil’s crisis has its own internal causes and logic. But it also fits a global pattern. Mr Cardoso’s reforms took place in an era when liberal economic and political ideas were in the ascendancy around the world. He became president six years after the fall of the Berlin Wall and 10 years after the end of military rule in Brazil. Other developing and middle-income countries, such as China, India, Mexico and Poland, were also following the path of liberal, economic reform. And Bill Clinton, a proud “globalist”, was in the White House.

但2008年金融危機引發(fā)了對“新自由主義”的反彈。美國現(xiàn)任總統(tǒng)如今譴責全球主義，宣揚保護主義。北京、德里、莫斯科、安卡拉掌權(quán)的都是奉行民族主義的鐵腕人物?？ǘ嘧?mdash;—一名會講多種語言的教授——屬于另一個不同的時代，那個時代掌權(quán)的是技術(shù)官僚和學界人士。

But the financial crisis of 2008 sparked a backlash against “neoliberalism”. The current US president now denounces globalism and preaches protectionism. Nationalist strongmen are in power in Beijing, Delhi, Moscow and Ankara. Mr Cardoso, a multilingual professor, belongs to a different era when technocrats and academics were in charge. And yet Brazilian liberals are far from ready to admit defeat. The corruption scandal has turned politics upside down, but many hope it will be the basis for a more just and efficient Brazil. The depth of the current economic crisis may also force Brazil to return to the path of economic reform, with a renewed attack on subsidies and clientelism. And Mr Cardoso is adamant that the political progress of the previous decades will endure. In the past, he says, “Brazilians all knew the names of the top generals . . . But now everybody knows the names of the judges and prosecutors. That’s progress.”

然而，巴西的自由主義者遠沒有打算承認失敗。腐敗丑聞已經(jīng)把巴西政壇攪得天翻地覆，但許多人希望這將促使巴西轉(zhuǎn)變?yōu)橐粋€更公正、更有效率的國家。當前經(jīng)濟危機的嚴重程度可能還會迫使巴西回到經(jīng)濟改革的道路上，再次對補貼和裙帶關系進行打擊?？ǘ嘧魣孕?，此前幾十年的政治進程將延續(xù)下去。在過去，他說，“巴西人只知道高級將領的名字……但現(xiàn)在大家都知道法官和檢察官的名字。這就是進步。”