馬琳?勒龐不再是黑馬政治家

The most distinctive characteristic of the French presidential election campaign so far has been its dramatic challenge to the French establishment. Former conservative leaders Nicolas Sarkozy and Alain Juppé were soundly defeated in the Republican primary, while the abysmally unpopular François Hollande was forced to withdraw from the race — the first time a sitting president has been too weak to stand for re-election. To complete the rout, prime minister Manuel Valls was pushed out of the Socialist primary by the more radical Benoît Hamon.

目前為止，此次法國總統(tǒng)大選最與眾不同的特征，是它給法國建制派帶來的巨大挑戰(zhàn)。前保守派領(lǐng)導(dǎo)人尼古拉•薩科齊(Nicolas Sarkozy)和阿蘭•朱佩(Alain Juppé)在法國共和黨(Republican)初選中徹底落敗，而極不受歡迎的弗朗索瓦•奧朗德(François Hollande)被迫退出角逐——現(xiàn)任總統(tǒng)弱勢到不競選連任的地步，這是頭一次。讓建制派的潰敗成為定局的是，前總理曼努埃爾•瓦爾斯(Manuel Valls)在社會黨(Socialist)初選中敗給了更激進(jìn)的伯努瓦•阿蒙(Benoît Hamon)。

This anti-incumbent surge echoes the Anglo-American insurgencies that recently produced the Brexit vote and the election of Donald Trump. But it also expresses a widespread French distrust of political parties, itself part of an older anti-establishment populist tradition. “Sortez les sortants” (“Kick the bums out”), the slogan of the 1950s populist politician Pierre Poujade, could well serve as the motto of the 2017 campaign.

這股反現(xiàn)任浪潮呼應(yīng)了在英美出現(xiàn)的反叛——最近造就了英國退歐的公投結(jié)果以及唐納德•特朗普(Donald Trump)當(dāng)選美國總統(tǒng)。但這也反映了在法國普遍存在的對政治黨派的不信任——這種不信任本身是過去反建制派民粹主義傳統(tǒng)的一部分。上世紀(jì)50年代民粹主義政客皮埃爾•布熱德(Pierre Poujade)的口號——“把混子踢出局”(Sortez les sortants)，同樣很適合作為2017年大選的座右銘。

Turbulence has now become the defining feature of the campaign. The Republicans’ candidate, François Fillon, who at the end of 2016 looked like he was coasting to an easy victory, has become mired in a scandal after the satirical newspaper Le Canard Enchaîné uncovered how he allegedly turned his parliamentary allowances into family benefits over a period of more than two decades.

如今動蕩已經(jīng)成了此次大選的決定性特征。在2016年底時看似會輕松取勝的法國共和黨候選人弗朗索瓦•菲永(François Fillon)，在諷刺性報道見長的報紙《鴨鳴報》(Le Canard Enchaîné)曝光其涉嫌在長達(dá)20多年的時間里，把議會津貼轉(zhuǎn)為家庭福利后，陷入丑聞之中。

Although Mr Fillon survived the revelations, and offered a (grudging) apology, the scandal has damaged his position in the polls. The affair also revealed the underlying frailty of his campaign, widely perceived as unimaginative, lacking a presidential grand narrative and incoherent: for all his claims to represent fundamental change, Mr Fillon was, after all, Mr Sarkozy’s prime minister for five years.

盡管菲永挺過了那次曝光并(勉強(qiáng))作了道歉，但這一丑聞?chuàng)p害了他在民調(diào)中的地位。此次事件也暴露了他的競選的潛在弱點(diǎn)：盡管他聲稱自己代表著徹底改革，但畢竟他給薩科齊當(dāng)了5年的總理。菲永的競選也被普遍認(rèn)為缺乏想象力、缺少總統(tǒng)應(yīng)該具備的宏大敘事并且前后不連貫。

The immediate beneficiary of Mr Fillon’s misfortunes was Emmanuel Macron, Mr Hollande’s former economy minister, who is running as an independent centrist. Mr Macron’s appeal lies in his youthful energy, intelligence, cosmopolitan outlook and his belief that the French people are tired of the hackneyed debates between left and right.

菲永丑聞的直接受益者是奧朗德的前經(jīng)濟(jì)部長埃馬紐埃爾•馬克龍(Emmanuel Macron)——目前以獨(dú)立的中間派身份參加競選。馬克龍的吸引力在于他的朝氣蓬勃、才智、國際化的視野、以及他相信法國民眾已經(jīng)厭倦了左右翼之間陳腐的辯論。

Borrowing from the Poujadiste playbook and pitching himself as an outsider, he saw his ratings surge as he briefly overtook Mr Fillon in the polls. But Mr Macron, too, has now become embroiled in controversy: his description of the French colonial era in Algeria as a “crime against humanity” provoked an outcry among conservatives.

馬克龍借鑒了布熱德主義(Poujadiste)的劇本，把自己定位成局外人，從而支持率飆升，曾在民調(diào)中短暫超越了菲永。但眼下馬克龍也陷入了爭議之中：他把法國在阿爾及利亞的殖民時期形容為“反人類罪行”，這引發(fā)了保守派的強(qiáng)烈抗議。

Interesting in itself as a measure of the continuing incapacity of French elites to address France’s colonial legacy, the row also underscores Mr Macron’s greatest frailty: his vulnerability to attack as soon as he offers specific pronouncements (so far, his campaign has been decidedly thin on detail). More fundamentally, as a graduate of the École Nationale d’Administration, the cocoon for the French elite, a former banker at Rothschild’s and close adviser to the president, his claims to represent renewal are unsustainable.

這場反映了法國精英持續(xù)無法應(yīng)對法國殖民遺產(chǎn)的爭論本身很有意思，同時也突顯了馬克龍最大的弱點(diǎn)：他一提出具體聲明，就容易受到攻擊(目前為止，他的競選在細(xì)節(jié)上明顯十分薄弱)。更根本的是，作為法國國家行政學(xué)院(École Nationale d'Administration)——法國精英的孵化器——的畢業(yè)生、洛希爾銀行(Rothschild & Cie Banque)的前銀行家、以及法國總統(tǒng)的親密顧問，他聲稱自己代表革新的說法站不住腳。

The misfortunes of Messrs Fillon and Macron should have provided a perfect opportunity for the two main candidates of the left, Mr Hamon and Jean-Luc Mélenchon, who both espouse a form of progressive populism. Their programmes overlap in a number of significant respects — notably on the need for a new constitutional settlement in the form of a “Sixth Republic”, the abolition of controversial labour laws and higher taxes on the wealthy.

菲永和馬克龍二人的霉運(yùn)本應(yīng)該為剩下的兩名主要左翼候選人帶來天賜良機(jī)——伯努瓦•阿蒙和讓-呂克•梅朗雄(Jean-Luc Mélenchon)，兩人都支持某種進(jìn)步民粹主義。阿蒙和梅朗雄的方針在很多重要方面都存在重合——特別是主張需要代表“第六共和國”(Sixth Republic)的新的憲法，廢除具有爭議的勞工法并對富人增稅。

These convergences could have provided the basis for a common platform, thereby energising the leftwing rank and file who have been in a catatonic state during the Hollande presidency. But it appears that negotiations between the two men have broken down, with the abrasive Mr Mélenchon declaring that he had “no intention of going and hitching myself to a hearse”.

這些共通點(diǎn)本可以為建立共同的政治綱領(lǐng)奠定基礎(chǔ)，從而促使那些在奧朗德任期內(nèi)死氣沉沉的左翼普通成員活躍起來。但二人之間的談判似乎破裂了，梅朗雄不客氣地宣稱，他“無意搭上一輛靈車”。

With a neutered right, a flaky centre and a divided left, the only beneficiary has been Marine Le Pen — fittingly, as her far-right National Front is the inheritor of the Poujadiste tradition. She is now clearly the frontrunner, and though the polls predict that she would lose to any mainstream candidate in the second round of the presidential election, the margins of her projected defeats are getting thinner.

在右翼沒戲、中間派地位不穩(wěn)、左翼存在內(nèi)部分歧的情況下，唯一的受益者是馬琳•勒龐(Marine Le Pen)——她領(lǐng)導(dǎo)的極右翼黨派國民陣線(National Front)繼承了布熱德主義傳統(tǒng)的衣缽。眼下她明顯成了領(lǐng)跑者，盡管民調(diào)預(yù)測她會在第二輪總統(tǒng)競選中輸給主流候選人，但對于她會以多大差距落敗的預(yù)測值正變得越來越小。

Until now, the prevailing view has been that it is inconceivable that France could elect a National Front president. Yet we have heard that before, closer to home. If French political elites do not get their act together soon, a Poujadiste “Frexiter” and admirer of Mr Trump could well find herself in the Elysée Palace in May.

目前為止，普遍觀點(diǎn)是法國選出一位國民陣線領(lǐng)導(dǎo)人擔(dān)任總統(tǒng)是一件不可思議的事。不過我們之前聽到過同樣的話，就在我們自己的國家。如果法國政治精英不快點(diǎn)采取有效行動的話，一位崇拜特朗普的布熱德主義“法國退歐派”可能會在5月發(fā)現(xiàn)自己已經(jīng)入主愛麗舍宮(Elysée Palace)了。

The writer is a lecturer in politics at Balliol College, Oxford and author of ‘How the French Think’

本文作者為牛津大學(xué)貝利奧爾學(xué)院(Balliol College, Oxford)政治學(xué)講師，著有《法國人如何思考》(How the French Think)一書