“強人世界”的投資生存指南

So Brexit was not a historical accident after all. The Trump victory seals it. A complacent, mainly urban liberal class, has been undone by a revolt. Nationalists are in charge of Washington and London now. These “strongmen” and “strongwomen” will control borders, restrict the movement of labour and subject cross-border M&A to ever tighter public scrutiny tests. Security will come first. The twin freedoms of capital and labour movement are fading, secular relics from a passing liberal age.

到頭來，英國退歐被證明不是一個歷史意外。特朗普在美國大選中獲勝提供了確鑿證據(jù)。自滿的、主要居住在城市的自由派階層被一場暴動搞得措手不及。民族主義者如今控制著華盛頓和倫敦。這些“強人”和“女強人”將控制邊境、限制勞工流動、讓跨國收購接受更嚴(yán)苛的公共審查測試。安全將被列在第一位。資本流動自由和勞動力流動自由，成了正在落幕的自由派時代漸漸淡出的殘留物。

For those of us who have been investing professionally for the past 30 years, this new creed feels alien. That, of course, is part of the message, and we have no choice but to adapt to it. The rules of the game are changing, and we have to change with it.

對于我們這些過去30年一直從事專業(yè)投資的人來說，這種新信條感覺十分陌生。當(dāng)然，這種陌生感是時代信息的一部分，我們別無選擇，只能適應(yīng)。游戲規(guī)則正在改變，我們不得不與時俱進(jìn)。

The tendency of “strongmen” to use the state apparatus to conjure up growth will set our new course. The tedium of recent years, slow but steady growth, looks set to be dislodged by the seductive alchemy of a fiscally induced boom-bust cycle beloved by populists.

“強人”利用國家機器拔高增長的傾向，將決定我們的新路線。最近幾年的沉悶——緩慢但穩(wěn)定的增長——似乎將被民粹主義所鐘愛、基于財政刺激的盛衰周期的誘人魔力趕走。

Supply-siders will happily urge us to believe it will be all self-funding, while an explosion in fiscal indebtedness looks the most immediate outcome of Trump economics. Spending on infrastructure, defence, with cuts in corporate and personal income tax, without any corresponding cuts in entitlements, will make everyone feel good for a while, apart from bond investors. Trump has rarely had much time for them anyway.

供給學(xué)派政策的倡導(dǎo)者將拍拍胸脯讓我們放心：這一切將完全可持續(xù)，而與此同時財政負(fù)擔(dān)出現(xiàn)爆炸性增長看起來將是特朗普經(jīng)濟(jì)學(xué)的最直接后果。在基礎(chǔ)設(shè)施和國防上增加開支、同時削減企業(yè)和個人所得稅，而又不相應(yīng)削減福利，這將使除債券投資者以外的所有人暫時感覺良好。特朗普向來沒把債券投資者放在眼里。

So a US economic boom is almost certainly on its way. Tight labour markets can become tighter. Household incomes can hopefully start to grow again after years of stagnation.

因此，美國經(jīng)濟(jì)繁榮差不多肯定會降臨。勞動力市場緊張可能會愈演愈烈。在經(jīng)歷了多年停滯后，家庭收入有望再次開始增長。

Markets can fret about wage inflation, but general price increases will be slower to respond. There is ample spare capacity in markets for traded goods and services in the US and elsewhere. Temporary dollar strength, salted with data-inspired Fed rate increases, will further temper the inflationary push.

市場可能會因為工資通脹而不安，但是整體價格上漲將以較慢步伐跟上。美國及其他地區(qū)的可貿(mào)易商品和服務(wù)市場有充足的富余產(chǎn)能。美元暫時走強、外加美聯(lián)儲(Fed)以經(jīng)濟(jì)數(shù)據(jù)為依據(jù)的加息行動，將進(jìn)一步緩和通脹壓力。

Trump’s promise of a free lunch will devour the savings glut that has suppressed real interest rates over the past two decades. Lunch can last longer than many will think. The repatriation of offshore US corporate balance sheets will help finance the good times. The recycling of corporate balance sheets towards households is well overdue.

特朗普承諾的免費午餐將吞噬過剩儲蓄，過去20年過剩儲蓄一直抑制著實際利率。午餐持續(xù)時間會超出很多人預(yù)期。海外美國企業(yè)資產(chǎn)負(fù)債表回歸本土將為美好時光提供資金支持。企業(yè)資產(chǎn)負(fù)債表早就應(yīng)該循環(huán)流入家庭負(fù)債表。

“Trump’s triumph” heralds the early verdict. Real interest rates will need to adjust to a new equilibrium, a sign of success. Equities, especially US equities, rally. Wall Street bankers do quite well under Trump’s anti-establishment banner.

“特朗普的勝利”預(yù)示著初步裁決。實際利率將需要適應(yīng)一種新的平衡狀態(tài)，這是成功跡象。股市、特別是美國股市，大漲。華爾街銀行家在特朗普反建制的旗幟下日子過得相當(dāng)滋潤。

Meanwhile, the slow decay of the US fiscal position will take its time. It can await the company of an old friend: the trade deficit. The twin-deficit problem that troubled fiscal conservatives so in the 1980s can make its comeback.

與此同時，美國財政狀態(tài)的緩慢惡化將需要很久才會變得明顯。它可以期待一位老友的陪伴：貿(mào)易赤字。在上世紀(jì)80年代令財政保守派不安的雙重赤字問題，可能會卷土重來。

Dr Henry Kaufman is poised for an Oscar-nominated return. Dr Doom, as he is fondly known, will remind us what this all ultimately means for interest rates and the dollar. The monthly trade data which once dominated the newswires, since usurped by the monthly employment report, can once again unnerve the dollar bulls.

亨利•考夫曼博士(Dr Henry Kaufman)勢將像一個明星那樣閃亮回歸。被親切稱為“末日博士”(Dr Doom)的他將提醒我們，這一切最終對利率和美元意味著什么。曾經(jīng)占據(jù)新聞頭條的月度貿(mào)易數(shù)據(jù)(近年被月度就業(yè)報告取代)可能再次讓看漲美元的人緊張。

Populism and strong currencies are rarely seen together for long.

民粹主義和強勢貨幣很少會長時間共存。

The trade deficit will be blamed on others of course: currency manipulators, global outsourcing, the carry trade. Mexico, the first casualty of the new world order, is already feeling this pinch: its net exports to the US an irredeemable liability in a world unhinged from formal multilateral duties. The recent falls in its currency and stock market are ready reminders of what America First means, soon to be followed by “China First”, “Japan First”, “France First” and so on.

當(dāng)然，貿(mào)易赤字的罪責(zé)將推給其他替罪羊：匯率操縱國、全球代工體系、套利交易。作為世界新秩序的首個受害者，墨西哥已經(jīng)感受到壓力：在脫離了正式多邊關(guān)稅協(xié)定的世界，墨西哥對美國的凈出口成了沒有可取之處的累贅。墨西哥最近的匯率下跌和股市走低提醒了人們“美國優(yōu)先”意味著什么，之后還很快會出現(xiàn)“中國優(yōu)先”，“日本優(yōu)先”，“法國優(yōu)先”等等。

And so the immediate outlook for risk assets is favourable. The market action of recent days is a reasonable assessment of what lies ahead. Fiscal policy will be highly stimulative, drawing down on the global savings glut, pushing up growth and real interest rates everywhere.

因此，風(fēng)險資產(chǎn)的近期前景較為良好。最近幾天的市場動態(tài)是對下一階段局面的合理評估。財政政策將具有高度刺激性，拉低全球儲蓄率，推高世界各地的增長率和實際利率。

It will feel good for a while, and then the financial strains will emerge, and Dr Doom can make his untimely entrance.

人們在短期內(nèi)將會感覺良好，之后將出現(xiàn)金融緊張，“末日博士”可能會不合時宜地重返舞臺。