特朗普能被政治精英馴服嗎？

Remember when Donald Trump said, “I alone can fix it?” It turns out he will need help. Here is the good news. Mr Trump’s advisers are distancing the president-elect from some of his most outlandish promises — making Mexico pay for the border wall, for example. The reason: Mr Trump’s team is already dominated by the special interests whose same grip he promised to end. Having vowed a hostile takeover, the populist outsider is surrounding himself with insiders. Washington is rolling out the red carpet for Mr Trump. There is not a pitchfork in sight.

還記得唐納德•特朗普(Donald Trump)曾說過“我一個人就能搞定”嗎?事實證明，他也需要幫助。現(xiàn)在有了好消息。特朗普的顧問們正在讓這位候任總統(tǒng)遠離他最荒誕的一些承諾——例如，讓墨西哥為修建邊境隔離墻負擔費用。原因是特朗普的團隊已經被特殊利益集團把持，而后者對政治的主宰正是他承諾要終結的。這位曾發(fā)誓進行敵意接管的、信奉民粹主義的局外人周圍已全是局內人。華盛頓正在為特朗普展開紅地毯。沒人舉著干草叉等他。

There are two dangers facing any populist who manages to get elected. The first is the impossibility of carrying out most of their promises. Mr Trump is a populist on stilts. He vowed to make America great again, “drain the swamp” of corruption, and resurrect the forgotten blue-collar American. He cannot satisfy such expectations. The second is that populist outsiders lack governing experience. They must therefore rely on those who do — people who can write laws, draw up regulations, issue executive orders and so on. These are the types who prefer things the way they are. Less than a week after his stunning victory, Mr Trump has already acknowledged both realities.

任何成功當選的民粹主義者都面臨兩大風險。首先，他們的大多數(shù)競選承諾都不可能兌現(xiàn)。特朗普是一個言行夸張的民粹主義者。他誓言要讓美國再次變得偉大，根除腐敗，讓被遺忘的藍領美國工人重新崛起。他無法滿足人們的這些期待。第二，信奉民粹主義的局外者缺乏執(zhí)政經驗。因此，他們必須依賴有執(zhí)政經驗的人士——能夠起草法律、制定法規(guī)、發(fā)布行政命令等等的人。這些人都更傾向于循規(guī)蹈矩。取得令人震驚的勝利不到一周，特朗普就已承認了這兩大現(xiàn)實。

Beware a populist mugged by reality. When the public realises their champion lacks magical powers, they suffer buyer’s remorse. At this point he must find methods of rekindling their support. In Mr Trump’s case, this would be a very worrisome prospect. For the time being, however, we are on phase one of the populist manual.

要當心一個被現(xiàn)實碾壓的民粹主義者。當公眾意識到自己擁護的得勝者沒有魔力時，他們便會陷入“買家懊悔”(buyer’s remorse)之中。到那時，他必須找到能重新燃起他們的支持的方法。對特朗普而言，前景將非常令人擔憂。然而，目前我們還處于民粹主義的第一階段。

Mr Trump’s transition team will be run by Mike Pence, the vice-president-elect, and one of Washington’s most experienced operators. Mr Pence is already being seen as a powerful — even prime ministerial — deputy in the mould of Dick Cheney in George W Bush’s first term. He will oversee the roughly 4,000 jobs to be filled. Some of these appointees, such as Rudy Giuliani, Ben Carson and possibly Sarah Palin, fit the Trumpian mindset. Most, however, will be experienced Washington hands.

特朗普的交接團隊將由當選副總統(tǒng)邁克•彭斯(Mike Pence)帶領，后者是華盛頓最有經驗的“老司機”之一。彭斯早已被視為一位實權、甚至總理式的副總統(tǒng)，類似迪克•切尼(Dick Cheney)在喬治•W•布什(George W Bush)第一任期的角色。他將負責填補約4000個崗位。其中一些被任命者，如魯?shù)?bull;朱利安尼(Rudy Giuliani)、本•卡森(Ben Carson)、或許還有薩拉•佩林(Sarah Palin)，符合特朗普式的思維。然而，大多數(shù)被任命者都將是華盛頓經驗豐富的老手。

The seeds of Mr Trump’s backlash are already being sown. As a small government conservative, Mr Pence’s worldview sits uneasily with Mr Trump’s populist nationalism — as is true of most of the Republican Party in Congress.

特朗普遭遇反彈的種子早已播下。作為一個小政府保守主義者，彭斯的世界觀與特朗普的民粹民族主義格格不入——國會中大多數(shù)共和黨人士也是如此。

But their fiscal visions overlap. Mr Trump wants to sharply reduce income and corporate taxes. He also wants to abolish the inheritance tax, which only the wealthiest Americans pay. These are the likeliest pieces of his agenda to go through. They will only deepen the income inequality that helped sweep Mr Trump to power. So would repeal of Obamacare, which has brought 20m Americans into the insurance net — another goal on which Republicans and Mr Trump agree.

但是他們在財政方面的觀點有相同之處。特朗普希望大幅削減所得稅和企業(yè)稅。他還想廢除只有最富有的美國人才繳納的遺產稅。這些是他議程上最有可能推進的部分。但這樣做只會加劇收入不均，而正是這種不均幫助特朗普登上了權力寶座。還有廢除已將2000萬美國人納入了保險網絡的“奧巴馬醫(yī)改”(Obamacare)——這是共和黨和特朗普的另一個一致目標。

It is too soon to know how each of these bills will be framed. But they will not do much for the “forgotten American”. Mr Trump’s tax cuts may stimulate growth. But they would greatly enrich the wealthiest Americans without providing much relief to others. Billionaires, such as Mr Trump, would be the biggest winners.

要知道這些法案將如何一一出臺還為時尚早。但是它們不會為“被遺忘的美國人”帶來多少好處。特朗普的減稅計劃或許能刺激經濟增長。但這樣做將大大增加最富有的美國人的財富，卻無法為其他人提供多少救助。特朗普之類的億萬富翁將成為最大的贏家。

Then there are Mr Trump’s amorphous business interests. Here we are in uncharted territory. Mr Trump will put control of his empire under a “blind trust” that will be run by three of his children, Ivanka, Eric and Donald Junior. There is patently nothing blind about this. All three have also taken leading positions on Mr Pence’s team that is busy staffing their father’s administration — the same one that will take regulatory, tax and enforcement decisions that will affect Trump Inc’s bottom line. Such conflicts of interest will not go unnoticed Mr Mr Trump’s opponents. He already faces 75 pending civil law suits, with the first courtroom drama opening in two weeks.

還有特朗普五花八門的商業(yè)利益。這是我們未知的領域。特朗普將把自己帝國的控制權置于一項“保密信托”(blind trust)之下，該信托將由他的三個子女——伊萬卡(Ivanka)、埃里克(Eric)和小唐納德(Donald Jr)——負責。這里顯然不存在任何保密。三人也都在彭斯忙于為他們父親的政府招兵買馬的團隊中擔任領導職務，而特朗普政府作出的監(jiān)管、稅收和執(zhí)法決策也將影響“特朗普公司”(Trump Inc)的最終盈虧。這樣的利益沖突不會不被特朗普的對手注意到。他已面臨75項待決的民事訴訟案，第一場庭審大戲將于兩周后開幕。

The spectre of a rapid public souring on Mr Trump will put a question mark over everything he does. How quickly the backlash comes may depend on whether he was serious in promising a big infrastructure bill. If well crafted, it could boost middle America. Most Republicans have strongly opposed similar proposals in the past.

迅速失去民心這一揮之不去的前景將給特朗普做的一切都打上問號。反彈何時出現(xiàn)可能取決于他是否認真兌現(xiàn)大型基礎設施法案。如果起草得當?shù)脑?，該法案可能提振美國中產階級。大多數(shù)共和黨人過去都曾強烈反對類似的提議。

It also depends on whether Mr Trump keeps his promise to preserve entitlements, such as Medicare and Social Security, which most Republicans want to cut. Much of Mr Trump’s base relies on government assistance to make ends meet.

何時出現(xiàn)反彈還取決于特朗普能否信守承諾，維持一些基本福利，如多數(shù)共和黨人希望削減的聯(lián)邦醫(yī)療保險計劃(Medicare)和社會保障計劃(Social Security)。特朗普選民基礎中的許多人依賴政府援助來維持生計。

Mr Pence’s mediating role with Capitol Hill will be critical. Will Mr Trump submit to the orthodox conservative agenda? Or will he try to bend Washington to his will?

彭斯與國會溝通的角色將至關重要。特朗普會屈服于正統(tǒng)保守的議程嗎?或者，他會嘗試讓華盛頓屈從自己的意志嗎?

The answer is some of both. Congress will almost certainly embrace a big tax cut. Passing spending bills will be far harder. Mr Trump is obsessed with his poll numbers. When they fall, he will begin to strain on the leash.

答案是兩者都有。國會幾乎肯定會支持大幅減稅計劃。但通過開支法案將困難得多。特朗普癡迷于自己的支持率。當支持率下降時，他將開始在壓力下奮力一搏。

His Trumpian inner circle will be ready with another agenda. On Saturday, Marine Le Pen, the far right French presidential hopeful, accepted an invitation from Stephen Bannon, head of Mr Trump’s campaign, “to work together”. Mr Bannon, who is tipped as Mr Trump’s White House chief of staff, is a radically different figure to Mr Pence. It was Mr Bannon who framed Mr Trump’s hardline (Le Pen-iste?) election campaign.

特朗普的核心圈將為另一項議程做好準備。上周六，有望贏得法國總統(tǒng)大選的極右翼人士馬琳•勒龐(Marine Le Pen)接受了特朗普競選活動負責人斯蒂芬•班農(Stephen Bannon)“進行合作”的邀請。被認為將出任特朗普白宮幕僚長的班農是一個與彭斯截然不同的人物。正是班農為特朗普制定了奉行強硬路線(勒龐式?)的競選策略。

The US and the world should dig in for an unending struggle between the tamed Mr Trump and his dangerous alter ego. Mr Trump, alone, cannot fix it.

美國和世界應對被馴服的特朗普與其危險的另一面之間無休止的斗爭嚴陣以待。特朗普一個人無法搞定。