為什么巨型集裝箱運(yùn)輸突然統(tǒng)治了海運(yùn)業(yè)

On Monday, December 8, the newly-christened CSCLGlobe left port in Shanghai en route to Europe on itsmaiden voyage. Capable of carrying 19,100 twenty-foot shipping containers—19,100 TEU, as they say inthe industry—the Globe, constructed by HyundaiHeavy Industries and owned by the state-run ChinaShipping Company, is now the world’s largestcontainer ship by volume. It is also among thelargest ships in operation by raw size, at 400 meterslong and 59 meters wide. If you cut the antennatower off the Empire State Building, it would be 20meters shorter than the Globe is long.

12月8日周一，這艘全新的中海集運(yùn)“環(huán)球號(hào)”離開上海港駛往歐洲，開始了它的首航。“環(huán)球號(hào)”可裝載1.91萬(wàn)個(gè)20英尺標(biāo)準(zhǔn)集裝箱(或業(yè)內(nèi)所稱的1.91萬(wàn)TEU)，由韓國(guó)現(xiàn)代重工集團(tuán)建造，隸屬于中國(guó)海運(yùn)集團(tuán)總公司，是目前全球容量最大的集裝箱船只，長(zhǎng)400米，寬59米，單是其尺寸就已躋身目前世界最大的運(yùn)營(yíng)船舶之列。如果不計(jì)算紐約帝國(guó)大廈樓頂?shù)奶炀€塔，那么該船的長(zhǎng)度比帝國(guó)大廈的高度還要多出20米。

 

 

But the CSCL Globe is more than just a really, really big ship. Its massive size reflects equallymassive changes that have reshaped the ocean shipping industry over the past decade ascarriers build ever-bigger ships to capture economies of scale in fuel and crew costs. Thecapital-intensive strategy is squeezing out smaller players and triggering consolidation acrossan industry that has long resisted it, while putting new demands on global shippinginfrastructure.

但中海集運(yùn)“環(huán)球號(hào)”絕不僅僅是一艘巨輪而已。其巨大的尺寸同樣反映出過去十年間航運(yùn)界發(fā)生的巨大變化。為了實(shí)現(xiàn)燃油和人工方面的規(guī)模效益，航運(yùn)公司建造的船只越來越大，而這一變化重塑了整個(gè)行業(yè)。這種資本密集型戰(zhàn)略正在把小競(jìng)爭(zhēng)者擠出市場(chǎng)，也在促使此前長(zhǎng)期抵觸整合的航運(yùn)界開始了全行業(yè)的整合，同時(shí)也對(duì)全球海運(yùn)基礎(chǔ)設(shè)施提出了新的要求。

So-called megaships have come to dominate container shipping with astonishing rapidityover the past decade. The industry was bowled over in 2003 by the arrival of the then-massive OOCL Shenzhen—but its 8,063 TEU capacity is unremarkable by today’s standards.

過去十年間，巨型船舶以令人驚嘆的發(fā)展速度開始引領(lǐng)集裝箱船運(yùn)市場(chǎng)。2003年，深圳東方海外的巨型集裝箱船曾經(jīng)征服了當(dāng)時(shí)的市場(chǎng)，但以今天的標(biāo)準(zhǔn)來看，其8063標(biāo)箱的容量已不足為奇。

The shift to larger ships was pushed along by the global financial crisis and rising fuel costs.After rates for container shipping hit record highs in the 1990s and early 2000s, pricescollapsed along with global trade in 2008 and 2009. Orders to shipbuilders around the worldwere cancelled in droves.

全球金融危機(jī)和不斷攀升的燃油價(jià)格也是船只尺寸變大的推手。集裝箱船的運(yùn)價(jià)在90年代至21世紀(jì)早期達(dá)到歷史高點(diǎn)后，于2008至2009年間隨著全球貿(mào)易的萎縮出現(xiàn)暴跌，各地造船廠的訂單都被陸續(xù)取消。

When orders picked up again, they were almost all for megaships. Hyundai Heavy Industries, forinstance, reports that since 2010 it has built 82 ships of more than 10,000 TEU but hasreceived orders for only five ships in the 5,000 TEU range.

隨后，雖然訂單量再次回升，但幾乎所有的訂單都是巨型船舶。比如，韓國(guó)現(xiàn)代重工的報(bào)告表示，自2010年起它們已建造了82艘容量超過1萬(wàn)標(biāo)箱的船只，但只有5筆容量為5000標(biāo)箱的訂單。

These capital-intensive larger ships have, predictably, concentrated in the hands of thelargest carriers. “To play with the big boys now, you have to be putting a huge amount ofmoney out,” says Sam Chambers, editorial director of the trade journal SinoShip. Accordingto a Drewry Maritime Research report from July 2014, MSC operates 696 ships above 10,000TEU, Maersk operates 433, and CMA CGM Group has 363.

可以預(yù)想，這些資本密集型的大船已經(jīng)集中在規(guī)模最大的海運(yùn)公司手中。行業(yè)刊物《中國(guó)船運(yùn)》編輯主任薩姆o錢伯斯說：“要和大佬們玩，你就得花大價(jià)錢” 。德魯里海事研究公司2014年7月的報(bào)告顯示，地中海航運(yùn)運(yùn)營(yíng)的船只當(dāng)中容量超1萬(wàn)標(biāo)箱的有696艘，馬士基有433艘，達(dá)飛有363艘。

The efficiencies of the larger ships are a boon for individual shippers, and for the globalenvironment. They consume as little as 50% of the fuel per container moved as older ships,while also more than halving insurance and staffing costs. A megaship requires the same 20-odd crew as a smaller ship but can carry three times the cargo.

大船效率的提高對(duì)于個(gè)體承運(yùn)人和全球大環(huán)境來說都有益處。其單個(gè)集裝箱運(yùn)輸所耗燃油僅為老船只的50%，保險(xiǎn)和人工成本也降低了一半多。和較小的船只相比，一艘巨型船舶同樣需要20多個(gè)船員，但運(yùn)力卻是小船的三倍。

The effect on the industry as a whole is less sanguine. “In terms of supply and demand, theindustry is blighted by what we describe as structural overcapacity,” says Simon Heaney,Drewry’s senior manager of supply chain research. Large carriers have mitigated thatoversupply to a degree through a practice known as “slow-steaming”—intentionally operatingships at as little as half their normal speed, which both reins in capacity and offers further fuelsavings.

巨型船舶對(duì)整個(gè)行業(yè)的影響則沒有那么樂觀。德魯里供應(yīng)鏈研究高級(jí)經(jīng)理賽門o希尼說：“供求方面，行業(yè)遭遇了我們所說的結(jié)構(gòu)性產(chǎn)能過剩的沖擊”。大的運(yùn)輸公司通過“減速航行”的方式來削弱過度供給造成的影響，即刻意地讓船以正常航速的一半來航行，既控制運(yùn)力，也進(jìn)一步節(jié)省了燃油。

With less access to efficiencies of scale or speed, smaller carriers are losing ground fast.Carriers outside of the global top 10 operate only dozens or, in some cases, zero megaships.Some have been forced into mergers, such as the acquisition of CSAV by Hapag-Lloyd in April.Further consolidation has taken the form of cargo-sharing agreements. By early 2015, theAsia-Europe container trade will be entirely controlled by just four major alliances.

由于難以獲得規(guī)模效益或在速度上做文章，小型運(yùn)輸公司的處境迅速惡化。全球排名前十之外的運(yùn)輸公司僅運(yùn)營(yíng)著幾十艘巨型船，有些甚至連一艘都沒有。其中的一些公司被迫投入他人的懷抱，比如4月份赫伯羅特就并購(gòu)了南美輪船。此外，貨運(yùn)共享協(xié)議也是行業(yè)整合的另一種形式。到2015年初，僅四大海運(yùn)聯(lián)盟就可以完全控制亞歐集裝箱業(yè)務(wù)。

Infrastructure limitations have kept the largest of the megaships confined to those Asia-Europe routes. Ships the size of the CSCL Globe are too large to fit through the Panama Canal,and neither East nor West Coast U.S. ports are equipped to handle them anyway. Theexpansion of the Panama Canal to accommodate megaships is underway, and the HongKong-based investment group HKND is currently exploring the construction of a large canalacross Nicaragua. But the megaships are having ripple effects around the world by pushingolder, smaller ships out of service on Asia-Europe routes, inflating capacity and pushing downprices everywhere.

由于基礎(chǔ)設(shè)施的限制，巨型船舶中尺寸最大的都只能在亞歐航線上運(yùn)營(yíng)。像中海集運(yùn)“環(huán)球號(hào)”這樣尺寸的船已經(jīng)無(wú)法通過巴拿馬運(yùn)河，而以目前的設(shè)施水平，美國(guó)東海岸和西海岸的港口也都無(wú)力接納這樣的船只。巴拿馬運(yùn)河擴(kuò)容工程目前正在進(jìn)行，投資集團(tuán)香港尼加拉瓜運(yùn)河開發(fā)投資有限公司也準(zhǔn)備在尼加拉瓜開發(fā)建造一條運(yùn)河。巨型船舶所產(chǎn)生的漣漪效應(yīng)已波及世界各地，因?yàn)樗仁估洗托〈顺鰜啔W航線的運(yùn)營(yíng)，并造成了運(yùn)力的膨脹和運(yùn)價(jià)的普降。

Industry watchers say the CSCL Globe is unlikely to retain its world’s-biggest title for long.Sam Chambers of SinoShip expects to see a 20,000 TEU ship ordered by early 2015, and shipsof up to 24,000 TEU would be viable with current Asia-Europe infrastructure. That wouldmean continued chronic overcapacity, and even more pressure on smaller shippers worldwide.

行業(yè)觀察者說，中海集運(yùn)“環(huán)球號(hào)”世界第一的稱號(hào)可能不會(huì)長(zhǎng)久?！吨袊?guó)海運(yùn)》雜志的薩姆o錢伯斯預(yù)計(jì)，2015年初可能會(huì)出現(xiàn)2萬(wàn)標(biāo)箱的船只訂單，以目前亞歐航線基礎(chǔ)設(shè)施情況來看，未來制造2.4萬(wàn)標(biāo)箱的船只也是可行的。而這意味著，產(chǎn)能過剩的局面將會(huì)長(zhǎng)時(shí)間持續(xù)，同時(shí)也會(huì)為全球的小型運(yùn)輸公司帶來更大的壓力。(財(cái)富中文網(wǎng))