為什么說俄羅斯經(jīng)濟(jì)不會(huì)崩盤
俄羅斯盧布雖然在上周三強(qiáng)勁反彈，但之前幾天的暴跌，已經(jīng)讓坊間充滿“俄羅斯大難臨頭”的言論;甚至有人預(yù)言，今天的俄羅斯將重蹈蘇聯(lián)的覆轍。
Don’t believe it. Russia is not the United States, andthe effects of a rapidly declining currency over thereare much less dramatic than they would be in theU.S.
別信這些話。俄羅斯并非美國，貨幣迅速貶值對俄羅斯的影響，遠(yuǎn)不會(huì)像在美國那樣嚴(yán)重。
One important thing to remember is that the fall of the ruble has accompanied a precipitousdecline in the per barrel price of oil. But the two are not as intimately connected as might besupposed. Yes, Russia has a resource-based economy that is hurt by oil weakness. However,oil is traded nearly everywhere in U.S. dollars, which are presently enjoying considerablestrength.
重點(diǎn)是，在盧布匯率下跌的同時(shí)，石油價(jià)格也在驟降。但兩者之間的聯(lián)系也許不像人們所想的那么緊密。的確，油價(jià)下跌對俄羅斯以自然資源為基礎(chǔ)的經(jīng)濟(jì)產(chǎn)生了不利影響。然而，幾乎所有的石油交易都是以美元進(jìn)行的，而目前美元?jiǎng)t相當(dāng)堅(jiān)挺。
This means that Russian oil producers can sell their product in these strong dollars but paytheir expenses in devalued rubles. Thus, they can make capital improvements, invest in newcapacity, or do further explorations for less than it would have cost before the ruble’s valuewas halved against the dollar. The sector remains healthy, and able to continue contributingthe lion’s share of governmental tax revenues.
也就是說，俄羅斯石油生產(chǎn)企業(yè)在出售產(chǎn)品時(shí)，可以用強(qiáng)勁的美元進(jìn)行結(jié)算，而生產(chǎn)費(fèi)用則用貶值的盧布來支付。由于盧布兌美元的比價(jià)已經(jīng)下降了將近50%，石油企業(yè)可以改善自身的資本狀況，或者用更低的成本進(jìn)行新產(chǎn)能投資，或者繼續(xù)進(jìn)行勘探。俄羅斯石油行業(yè)依然很健康，并且能夠繼續(xù)為政府貢獻(xiàn)大部分稅收。
Nor is ruble volatility going to affect the ability of most Russian companies to service theirdebt. Most of the dollar-denominated corporate debt that has to be rolled over in the comingmonths was borrowed by state companies, which have a steady stream of foreign currencyrevenues from oil and gas exports.
盧布的震蕩也不會(huì)影響大多數(shù)俄羅斯企業(yè)的償債能力。未來幾個(gè)月中，大多數(shù)需要展期的美元債務(wù)由俄羅斯國有企業(yè)持有，而石油和天然氣出口為這些企業(yè)提供了穩(wěn)定的外匯來源。
Russian consumers will be hurt, of course, due to the higher costs of imported goods, as wellas the squeeze inflation puts on their incomes. But, by the same token, exports becomemuch more attractive to foreign buyers. A cheaper ruble boosts the profit outlook for allRussian companies involved in international trade. Additionally, when the present currencyweakness is added to the ban on food imports from the European Union, the two couldeventually lead to an import-substitution boom in Russia.
當(dāng)然，由于進(jìn)口商品價(jià)格上升，以及通脹對收入的擠壓，俄羅斯的消費(fèi)者將蒙受損失。但出于同樣的原因，俄羅斯出口產(chǎn)品將對外國買家更具吸引力。盧布貶值提升了所有參與國際貿(mào)易的俄羅斯公司的盈利前景。
In any event, don’t expect any deprivations to inspire riots in the streets of Moscow. RussianPresident Vladimir Putin’s popularity has soared since the beginning of the Ukraine crisis. Thepeople trust him. They’ll tighten their belts and there will be no widespread revolt against hispolicies.
不管經(jīng)濟(jì)困境如何，都不太可能引發(fā)莫斯科的街頭騷亂。烏克蘭危機(jī)爆發(fā)以來，俄羅斯總統(tǒng)普京的支持率不斷飆升。俄羅斯人信任他。他們會(huì)勒緊褲帶，而普京的政策則不會(huì)遭到廣泛的反對。
Further, the high price of oil during the commodity supercycle, coupled with a high realexchange rate, led to a serious decline in the Russia’s manufacturing and agricultural sectorsover the past 15 years. This correlation—termed by economists “Dutch disease”—lowered theRussian manufacturing sector’s share of its economy to 8% from 21% in 2000.
進(jìn)一步來看，過去15年中，受處于大宗商品超級周期的高油價(jià)的影響，再加上盧布匯率處于高點(diǎn)，俄羅斯的制造業(yè)和農(nóng)業(yè)均出現(xiàn)了嚴(yán)重滑坡。這種被經(jīng)濟(jì)學(xué)家稱為“荷蘭病”( 指一國經(jīng)濟(jì)中某一初級產(chǎn)品部門異常繁榮而導(dǎo)致其他部門的衰落的現(xiàn)象——譯注)的狀況，讓制造業(yè)在俄羅斯經(jīng)濟(jì)中的比重從2000年的21%降到了現(xiàn)在的8%。
The longer the ruble remains weak, however, the less Dutch disease will rule the day. A lowercurrency means investment in Russian manufacturing and agriculture will make good economicsense again. Both should be given a real fillip.
話說回來，盧布保持低迷的時(shí)間越長，“荷蘭病”的影響就會(huì)越小。盧布貶值意味著俄羅斯制造業(yè)和農(nóng)業(yè)的投資將帶來較好的經(jīng)濟(jì)效益，這兩個(gè)領(lǐng)域都將反彈。
Low oil prices are also good for Russia’s big customers, especially China, with which Putin hasbeen forging ever-stronger ties. If, as expected, Russia and China agree to transactions inrubles and/or yuan, that will push them even closer together and further undermine thedollar’s worldwide hegemony. Putin always thinks decades ahead, and any short-term loss ofenergy revenues will be far offset by the long-term gains of his economic alliances.
低油價(jià)還對俄羅斯的大客戶們有利，特別是中國，而普京也一直在加強(qiáng)中俄之間的聯(lián)系。如果兩國以盧布或人民幣進(jìn)行貿(mào)易結(jié)算如預(yù)期那樣達(dá)成協(xié)議，中俄就會(huì)走的更近，同時(shí)也將進(jìn)一步削弱美元在全球的統(tǒng)治地位。普京一直著眼長遠(yuǎn)，他建立經(jīng)濟(jì)同盟所帶來的長期收益將遠(yuǎn)遠(yuǎn)超過能源收入方面的短期損失。
In the most recent development, the Russian central bank has reacted by raising interest ratesto 17%. On the one hand, this is meant to curb inflation. On the other, it’s an directresponse to the short selling speculators who’ve been attacking the ruble. They now have topay additional premiums, so the risk/reward ratio has gone up. Speculators are going to bemuch warier going forward.
俄羅斯央行的最新應(yīng)對措施是把利率提高到17%。一方面，這樣做是為了遏制通脹。另一方面，這直接反擊了那些做空盧布的投機(jī)者?，F(xiàn)在，這些投機(jī)者必須支付更高的溢價(jià)，風(fēng)險(xiǎn)/回報(bào)比已經(jīng)上升。今后，投機(jī)者會(huì)更加小心。
The rise in interest rates mirrors how former U.S. Fed Chair Paul Volcker fought inflation in theU.S. in the early ‘80s. It worked for Volcker, as the U.S. stock market embarked on a historicbull run. The Russians —twhose market has been beaten down during the oil/currency crisis—hare expecting a similar result.
俄羅斯提高利率的做法和20世紀(jì)80年代初時(shí)任美聯(lián)儲(chǔ)主席的保羅o沃爾克應(yīng)對通脹的方法如出一轍。沃爾克的措施收效良好，并帶來了美國股市前所未有的大牛市。在石油與貨幣危機(jī)重創(chuàng)俄羅斯股市的情況下，俄羅斯人期盼著同樣的結(jié)果。
Not that the Russian market is anywhere near as important to that country’s economy as theUS’s is to its. Russians don’t play the market like Americans do. There is no Jim Kramerovsky’sMad Money in Russia.
不過，在俄羅斯經(jīng)濟(jì)中，股市的重要性遠(yuǎn)不及美國。俄羅斯人也不像美國人那樣炒股。在俄羅斯可沒有《MadMoney》那樣的投資節(jié)目。
Russia is not some Zimbabwe-to-be. It’s sitting on a surplus of foreign assets and veryhealthy foreign exchange reserves of around $375 billion. Moreover, it has a strong debt-to-GDP ratio of just 13% and a large (and steadily growing) stockpile of gold.
俄羅斯不會(huì)成為津巴布韋。它的經(jīng)常賬戶處于盈余狀態(tài)，外匯儲(chǔ)備保持在大約3750億美元的健康水平。同時(shí)，俄羅斯的債務(wù)占GDP比率很低，只有13%;而黃金儲(chǔ)備充足且保持穩(wěn)定增長。
And there is Russia’s energy relationship with the EU, particularly Germany. Putin showed hisclout when he axed the South Stream pipeline and announced that he would run a pipelinethrough Turkey instead. The cancellation barely lasted long enough to speak it before the EUcaved and offered Putin what he needed to get South Stream back on line. Germany is nevergoing to let Turkey be a gatekeeper of European energy security. With winter arriving, the EU’sdependence on Russian oil and gas will take center stage, and the union will become astabilizing influence on Russia once again.
俄羅斯和歐盟在能源方面也有聯(lián)系，特別是和德國。普京曾強(qiáng)硬的取消了與歐盟合作的南流(SouthStream)天然氣管道項(xiàng)目，并宣稱將取道土耳其另建一條管道。話音未落，歐盟方面就做出讓步滿足了普京的要求，以確保這個(gè)項(xiàng)目重新上馬。德國永遠(yuǎn)也不會(huì)讓土耳其在歐洲能源安全方面發(fā)揮“守門員”的作用。隨著冬季臨近，歐盟對俄羅斯油氣的依賴將成為主導(dǎo)因素，而歐盟將再次為穩(wěn)定俄羅斯局勢而施加影響。
In short, while the current situation is not working in Russia’s favor, the country is far fromdown for the count. It will arrest the ruble’s slide and keep pumping oil. Its economy willcontract but not crumble. The harsh reality is that American shale fields have much more tofear from plummeting oil prices than the Russians (or the Saudis), since their costs ofproduction are much higher. Many US shale wells will become uneconomic if oil falls muchfurther. And it they start shutting down, it’ll be disastrous for the American economy, sincethe growth of the shale industry has underpinned 100% of US economic growth for the pastseveral years.
簡而言之，盡管當(dāng)前情況不利，但俄羅斯遠(yuǎn)未倒下。它將止住盧布的下滑勢頭并繼續(xù)開采石油。俄羅斯經(jīng)濟(jì)將萎縮，但不會(huì)崩盤。而嚴(yán)峻的現(xiàn)實(shí)是，面對油價(jià)直線下降，生產(chǎn)成本居高的美國頁巖油氣公司要擔(dān)心的東西遠(yuǎn)遠(yuǎn)超過俄羅斯(或者沙特)。如果油價(jià)繼續(xù)大幅度下跌，美國的許多頁巖油井將難以為繼。而如果這些油井開始停產(chǎn)，美國經(jīng)濟(jì)就會(huì)面臨災(zāi)難，因?yàn)檫@幾年美國經(jīng)濟(jì)的增長全靠頁巖油氣行業(yè)支撐。
Those waving their arms about the ruble might do better to look at countries facing realcurrency crises, like oil-dependent Venezuela and Nigeria, as well as Ukraine. That’s where theserious trouble is going to come.
對盧布貶值大驚小怪的人也許更應(yīng)該看看那些真正面臨貨幣危機(jī)的國家，比如高度依賴石油的委內(nèi)瑞拉和尼日利亞，還有烏克蘭。這些才是將要出現(xiàn)大麻煩的地方。(財(cái)富中文網(wǎng))
