IEA：油價(jià)上漲可能扼殺經(jīng)濟(jì)復(fù)蘇

The world economy cannot sustain any further rise in the oil price, the International Energy Agency's chief economist warned as oil prices hit a record high for the year.

在油價(jià)升至今年新高之際，國(guó)際能源機(jī)構(gòu)(IEA)首席經(jīng)濟(jì)學(xué)家法提赫•比羅爾(Fatih Birol)警告稱(chēng)，世界經(jīng)濟(jì)無(wú)法承受油價(jià)的進(jìn)一步上漲。

Fatih Birol told the Financial Times that prices higher than about $70 could damp a world economic recovery.

比羅爾向英國(guó)《金融時(shí)報(bào)》表示，若油價(jià)高于70美元，便有可能阻礙全球經(jīng)濟(jì)復(fù)蘇。

“If we go one step further, if we see prices go much higher than that, we may see it slow down and strangle economic recovery,” he said of oil prices on Friday, when the European benchmark was around $70.

“如果我們?cè)偾斑M(jìn)一步，如果油價(jià)遠(yuǎn)遠(yuǎn)高出70美元，就有可能減緩甚至扼殺全球經(jīng)濟(jì)復(fù)蘇。”上周五他對(duì)油價(jià)作出上述評(píng)價(jià)，當(dāng)時(shí)歐洲的基準(zhǔn)油價(jià)在70美元上下。

European oil yesterday reached a high for the year of $73.87, spurred by manufacturing data from China and construction data from the US.

受中國(guó)制造業(yè)數(shù)據(jù)和美國(guó)建筑業(yè)數(shù)據(jù)的刺激，昨天歐洲油價(jià)創(chuàng)下今年新高，達(dá)73.87美元。

Fears have been raised over recent months that the inflationary effect of higher energy prices could impact the monetary measures taken by western governments to get their economies out of recession.

近幾個(gè)月來(lái)，人們開(kāi)始擔(dān)心，能源價(jià)格走高的通脹效應(yīng)，可能對(duì)西方各國(guó)政府為擺脫經(jīng)濟(jì)衰退而出臺(tái)的貨幣政策措施造成沖擊。

Nicolas Sarkozy, French president, and Gordon Brown, UK prime minister, called for better scrutiny of energy markets at the G8 meeting last month in Italy, and the US commodities regulator began hearings last week that are likely to result in more limits on oil futures trade. UK regulators are also considering whether energy futures markets are adequately controlled.

上月在意大利舉行的八國(guó)集團(tuán)(G8)會(huì)議上，法國(guó)總統(tǒng)尼古拉•薩科齊(Nicolas Sarkozy)和英國(guó)首相戈登•布朗(Gordon Brown)呼吁對(duì)能源交易市場(chǎng)實(shí)施更加嚴(yán)密的監(jiān)督。美國(guó)大宗商品交易監(jiān)管機(jī)構(gòu)上周開(kāi)始舉行聽(tīng)證會(huì)，可能對(duì)石油期貨交易設(shè)置更多限制。英國(guó)監(jiān)管機(jī)構(gòu)也正在考慮，能源期貨市場(chǎng)是否受到足夠的管控。

However, Mr Birol said that efforts to curb oil speculation were “a good step”, but were not going to significantly reduce prices.

然而，比羅爾表示，雖然限制油價(jià)投機(jī)行為的努力是“一個(gè)好的舉措”，但不會(huì)顯著壓低油價(jià)。

Mr Birol said poorer countries such as those in sub-Saharan Africa would be particularly hurt by higher energy prices. “They will go through a . . . vicious circle of debt as they did a few years ago in order to finance their oil imports,” he said.

比羅爾稱(chēng)，較貧窮的國(guó)家，如撒哈拉以南非洲國(guó)家，受到高油價(jià)的影響會(huì)尤其嚴(yán)重。“他們會(huì)像幾年前一樣，為了負(fù)擔(dān)石油進(jìn)口而經(jīng)歷一種……債務(wù)的惡性循環(huán)，”他說(shuō)。

The real problem, he said, was declining investment in oil production, which if anything had worsened in recent months.

據(jù)他稱(chēng)，真正的問(wèn)題在于對(duì)石油生產(chǎn)的投資縮減，特別是最近幾個(gè)月這種趨勢(shì)有所惡化。

“If there is a continuation of declining investment in the upstream sector, in a few years' time we may have major difficulties.”

“如果上游部門(mén)的投資繼續(xù)縮減，再過(guò)幾年我們可能會(huì)遭遇重大難題。”

He said Chinese demand would be an important determinant of oil prices, and the worldwide supply and demand balance could become very tight if other countries began to grow in 2011 or 2012.

比羅爾表示，中國(guó)需求將是油價(jià)的一個(gè)重要決定因素，而且如果其它國(guó)家在2011年或2012年開(kāi)始增長(zhǎng)，全球供需平衡將變得非常緊張。

譯者/管婧