VOA慢速英語：氣候變化引發(fā)削減消費爭論

Degrowth economics is the idea that the planet cannot survive endless economic growth. That idea goes against modern economics, where growth is widely considered the best way for nations to build wealth.
去增長經(jīng)濟學認為地球無法在無休止的經(jīng)濟增長中生存。這種觀點與現(xiàn)代經(jīng)濟學背道而馳，在現(xiàn)代經(jīng)濟學中，增長被廣泛認為是國家積累財富的最佳方式。
 
But the theory is becoming more accepted. Climate change continues to worsen and supply shortages are giving people a taste of a world with limited resources. The problems have led some economic experts to consider what a degrowth world might look like.
但這一理論正在被越來越多的人接受。氣候變化繼續(xù)惡化，供應短缺正在讓人們體驗資源有限的世界。這些問題讓一些經(jīng)濟專家開始思考一個去增長的世界會是什么樣子。
 
More talks on degrowth
關于去增長的討論
 
The U.N. climate science agency this year called for cuts in consumer demand, a major degrowth idea. In April, the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change declared that cuts to consumer demand were needed to reduce carbon emissions. Efforts to reduce carbon emissions were previously centered on increasing the use of clean fuel technology.
聯(lián)合國氣候科學機構今年呼吁削減消費者需求，這是一個主要的去增長的理念。4 月，政府間氣候變化專門委員會宣布，需要削減消費者需求以減少碳排放。減少碳排放的努力以前集中在增加清潔燃料技術的使用上。
 
The term has also started to appear in investment notes.
該術語也開始出現(xiàn)在投資筆記中。
 
"It is a provocative term," said Aniket Shah. He is with the investment banking company Jefferies. "But it's not about going to a low-income country saying, 'You can't grow anymore'," he said. "It's saying: We need to look at the entire system and see how do we over time decrease total consumption and production in aggregate."
“這是一個具有挑釁性的詞，”阿尼克特·沙阿說。他在投資銀行公司杰富瑞工作。“但這并不是要對一個低收入國家說，‘你不能再成長了’，”他說。“它的意思是：我們需要審視整個系統(tǒng)，看看我們?nèi)绾坞S著時間的推移減少總消費量和總產(chǎn)量。”
 
The World Economic Forum, the organization that runs the Davos economic meeting, published a degrowth article in June. The article suggested that "it might mean people in rich countries changing their diets, living in smaller houses and driving and traveling less."
6 月，舉辦達沃斯經(jīng)濟會議的組織世界經(jīng)濟論壇發(fā)表了一篇去增長的文章。文章指出“這可能意味著讓富裕國家的人們改變飲食習慣，住更小的房子，減少開車和旅行。”
 
For Jefferies' Shah, those kinds of behavioral changes could make degrowth investments more popular.
對于在杰富瑞工作的沙阿來說，這些行為變化可能會使去增長投資更受歡迎。
 
He said that the online meeting service Zoom, for example, is a company that could be considered degrowth.
他說，例如，在線會議服務公司Zoom就可以被視為去增長的公司。
 
"...I can certainly see how a world that uses more web-conferencing ... means less travel, which is a very high-carbon-intensive way of transportation," said Shah.
“......由此可以看到一個使用更多網(wǎng)絡會議的世界......意味著更少的旅行，旅行可是一種非常高碳密集的交通方式。”沙阿說。
 
Different economic measurements
不同的經(jīng)濟衡量標準
 
Some countries have tried to measure economic outcomes differently than just growth. The small Asian nation of Bhutan famously created a "gross national happiness" measurement. Japan is looking into creating a "green GDP" measurement. GDP, short for Gross Domestic Product, means the value of goods and services produced in a country.
有些國家試圖以不同的方式衡量經(jīng)濟成果，而不僅僅是增長。亞洲小國不丹創(chuàng)造了“國民幸?？傊?rdquo;衡量標準。日本正在研究建立“綠色GDP”衡量標準。GDP是??國內(nèi)生產(chǎn)總值的縮寫，是指一個國家生產(chǎn)的商品和服務的價值。
 
But still, economic policy and markets are mostly driven by increasing consumption and production.
但是，經(jīng)濟政策和市場主要是由不斷增長的消費和生產(chǎn)驅(qū)動的。
 
Tim Jackson is an economist who has long criticized that model. He said the pandemic and the Ukraine war both challenged consumption with other concerns, like health or global political goals.
蒂姆杰克遜作為長期以來批判這種模式的經(jīng)濟學家。他表示，疫情和戰(zhàn)爭都在其他問題上對消費構成挑戰(zhàn)，例如健康或全球政治目標。
 
At the same time, some countries could enter a state where their economies show little if any growth. This could be caused by many things like an aging population, limited international trade, or a lack of economic reforms.
與此同時，一些國家可能會進入一種經(jīng)濟微增長的狀態(tài)。這可能由多種因素造成，例如人口老齡化、國際貿(mào)易有限或缺乏經(jīng)濟改革。
 
Japan is a country that has experienced this. Experts also see it as a risk for Germany unless it quickly reforms its economic model.
日本就是一個經(jīng)歷過這種情況的國家。專家們還認為，除非德國迅速改革其經(jīng)濟模式，否則這對德國來說也是一種風險。
 
"Particularly in the advanced economies we are moving into a situation where to all intents and purposes, we're pretty much not looking at continued growth already," said Jackson. "If we haven't got an economics that will deal with that .. then we've got very little chance of managing it successfully."
杰克遜說：“尤其是在發(fā)達經(jīng)濟體，我們正步入這樣一種局面：無論出于何種意圖和目的，我們基本上已經(jīng)看不到持續(xù)增長的跡象了。如果我們沒有一套可以解決這個問題的經(jīng)濟學……那么，我們成功管理它的可能性微乎其微。”
 
I'm Dan Novak.
丹·諾瓦克報道。