THE public always wants to be told.That is what makes tip-giving and tip-taking universal practices.It is proper that brokers should give their customers trading advice through the medium of their market letters as well as by word of mouth.But brokers should not dwell too strongly on actual conditions because the course of the market is always from six to nine months ahead of actual conditions.Today's earnings do not justify brokers in advising their customers to buy stocks unless there is some assurance that six or nine months from today the business outlook will warrant the belief that the same rate of earnings will be maintained.If on looking that far ahead you can see,reasonably clearly,that conditions are developing which will change the present actual power,the argument about stocks being cheap today will disappear.The trader must look far ahead,but the broker is concerned with getting commissions now;hence the inescapable fallacy of the average market letter.Brokers make their living out of commissions from the public and yet they will try to induce the public through their market letters or by word of mouth to buy the same stocks in which they have received selling orders from insiders or manipulators.
It often happens that an insider goes to the head of a brokerage concern and says:“I wish you'd make a market in which to dispose of 50,000 shares of my stock.”
The broker asks for further details.Let us say that the quoted price of that stock is 50.The insider tells him:“I will give you calls on 5000 shares at 45 and 5000 shares every point up for the entire fifty thousand shares.I also will give you a put on 50,000 shares at the market.”
Now,this is pretty easy money for the broker,if he has a large following and of course this is precisely the kind of broker the insider seeks.A house with direct wires to branches and connections in various parts of the country can usually get a large following in a deal of that kind.Remember that in any event the broker is playing absolutely safe by reason of the put.If he can get his public to follow he will be able to dispose of his entire line at a big profit in addition to his regular commissions.
I have in mind the exploits of an“insider”who is well-known in Wall Street.
He will call up the head customers' man of a large brokerage house.At times he goes even further and calls up one of the I junior partners of the firm.He will say something like this:
“Say,old man,I want to show you that I appreciate what you have done for me at various times.I am going to give you a chance to make some real money.We are forming a new company to absorb the assets of one of our companies and we'll take over that stock at a big advance over present quotations.I'm going to send in to you 500 shares of Bantam Shops at $65.The stock is now quoted at 72.”
The grateful insider tells the thing to a dozen of the headmen in various big brokerage houses.Now since these recipients of the insider's bounty are in Wall Street what are they going to do when they get that stock that already shows them a profit?Of course,advise every man and woman they can reach to buy that stock.The kind donor knew this.They will help to create a market in which the kind insider can sell his good things at high prices to the poor public.
There are other devices of stock-selling promoters that should be barred.The Exchanges should not allow trading in listed stocks that are offered outside to the public on the partial payment plan.To have the price officially quoted gives a sort of sanction to any stock.Moreover,the official evidence of a free market,and at times the difference in prices,is all the inducement needed.
Another common selling device that costs the unthinking public many millions of dollars and sends nobody to jail because it is perfectly legal,is that of increasing the capital stock exclusively by reason of market exigencies.The process does not really amount to much more than changing the color of the stock certificates.
The juggling whereby 2 or 4 or even 10 shares of new stock are given in exchange for one of the old,is usually prompted by a desire to make the old merchandise more easily vendible.The old price was $t per pound package and hard to move.At 25 cents for a quarter-pound box it might go better;and perhaps at 27 or 30 cents.
Why does not the public ask why the stock is made easy to buy?It is a case of the Wall Street philanthropist operating again,but the wise trader bewares of the Greeks bearing gifts.It is all the warning needed.The public disregards it and loses millions of dollars annually.
The law punishes whoever originates or circulates rumors calculated to affect adversely the credit or business of individuals or corporations,that is,that tend to depress the values of securities by influencing the public to sell.Originally,the chief intention may have been to reduce the danger of panic by punishing anyone who doubted aloud the solvency of banks in times of stress.But of course,it serves also to protect the public against selling stocks below their real value.In other words the law of the land punishes the disseminator of bearish items of that nature.
How is the public protected against the danger of buying stocks above their real value?Who punishes the distributor of unjustified bullish news items?Nobody;and yet,the public loses more money buying stocks on anonymous inside advice when they are too high than it does selling out stocks below their value as a consequence of bearish advice during socalled“raids.”
If a law were passed that would punish bull liars as the law now punishes bear liars,I believe the public would save millions.
Naturally,promoters,manipulators and other beneficiaries of anonymous optimism will tell you that anyone who trades on rumors and unsigned statements has only himself to blame for his losses.One might as well argue that any one who is silly enough to be a drug addict is not entitled to protection.
The Stock Exchange should help.It is vitally interested in protecting the public against unfair practices.If a man in position to know wishes to make the public accept his statements of fact or even his opinions,let him sign his name.Signing bullish items would not necessarily make them true.But it would make the“insiders”and“directors”more careful.
The public ought always to keep in mind the elementals of stock trading.When a stock is going up no elaborate explanation is needed as to why it is going up.It takes continuous buying to make a stock keep on going up.As long as it does so,with only small and natural reactions from time to time,it is a pretty safe proposition to trail along with it.But if after a long steady rise a stock turns and gradually begins to go down,with only occasional small rallies,it is obvious that the line of least resistance has changed from upward to downward.Such being the case why should any one ask for explanations?There are probably very good reasons why it should go down,but these reasons are known only to a few people who either keep those reasons to themselves,or else actually tell the public that the stock is cheap.The nature of the game as it is played is such that the public should realise that the truth cannot be told by the few who know.
Many of the so-called statements attributed to“insiders”or officials have no basis in fact.Sometimes the insiders are not even asked to make a statement,anonymous or signed.These stories are invented by somebody or other who has a large interest in the market.At a certain stage of an advance in the market-price of a security the big insiders are not averse to getting the help of the professional element to trade in that,stock.But while the insider might tell the big plunger the right time to buy,you can bet he will never tell when is the time to sell.That puts the big professional in the same position as the public,only he has to have a market big enough for him to get out on.Then is when you get the most misleading“information.”O(jiān)f course,there are certain insiders who cannot be trusted at any stage of the game.As a rule the men who are at the head of big corporations may act in the market upon their inside knowledge,but they don't actually tell lies.They merely say nothing,for they have discovered that there are times when silence is golden.
I have said many times and cannot say it too often that the experience of years as a stock operator has convinced me that no man can consistently and continuously beat the stock market though he may make money in individual stocks on certain occasions.No matter how experienced a trader is the possibility of his making losing plays is always present because speculation cannot be made 100 per cent safe.Wall Street professionals know that acting on“inside”tips will break a man more quickly than famine,pestilence,crop failures,political readjustments or what might be called normal accidents.There is no asphalt boulevard to success in Wall Street or anywhere else.Why additionally block traffic?
THE END
人們都喜歡從別人口中得到消息,這就是內(nèi)幕消息能這么普遍地被傳播與接受的原因。經(jīng)紀(jì)商通過(guò)自己的市場(chǎng)通訊雜志和口耳相傳,給顧客有關(guān)交易的建議很適當(dāng)。可也不該對(duì)實(shí)際情況討論得過(guò)于詳盡,因?yàn)閷?shí)際情況比股市走向要滯后六到九個(gè)月。今天,公司的盈余沒(méi)有為經(jīng)紀(jì)商提供足夠充分的理由,讓他去建議股民們購(gòu)買這只股票,除非對(duì)六到九個(gè)月后的情況有把握,對(duì)業(yè)務(wù)的預(yù)估能保證維持住同樣的獲利率。假若你能清晰地看到這么長(zhǎng)時(shí)間以后的事,能夠看明白股市未來(lái)走向跟目前實(shí)際狀況不同,那現(xiàn)在關(guān)于討論股價(jià)便宜的說(shuō)法就不會(huì)存在了。交易者要高瞻遠(yuǎn)矚,可經(jīng)紀(jì)商們關(guān)心的只是賺眼前的手續(xù)費(fèi),所以那些普通證券商發(fā)行的雜志里,有很多避不開的誤斷。證券商賺的錢是來(lái)自大眾手里的手續(xù)費(fèi),他們也想盡辦法用手中的雜志誘導(dǎo)股民,讓他們買那些內(nèi)線和作手賣出的股票。
我們會(huì)經(jīng)??吹?,公司內(nèi)線人士會(huì)去拜訪證券公司的老板,然后說(shuō):“我希望你能搭建一個(gè)市場(chǎng),替我賣出5萬(wàn)股。”
證券商讓他說(shuō)得更加詳細(xì)些。比如這只股票的報(bào)價(jià)是50美元,內(nèi)線人士對(duì)證券商說(shuō):“我向你提供5000股買進(jìn)選擇權(quán),每股45美元;每升高2個(gè)點(diǎn),就給你5000股,總共給你5萬(wàn)股。此外,我也按照市價(jià)給你5萬(wàn)股的賣出選擇權(quán)?!?/p>
只要證券商有很多跟隨的粉絲,那這樣的錢對(duì)他來(lái)說(shuō)就非常容易賺,公司內(nèi)線人士需要的就是粉絲。如果哪家證券商有聯(lián)通分公司和全美國(guó)各地交易所的直撥電話,遇到這樣的股市交易,就會(huì)找到特別多的追隨粉絲。你要記住,不管怎么樣,因?yàn)橛匈u出選擇權(quán),這家證券交易商做的是絕對(duì)有把握的事情。假若他能拉一批跟進(jìn)的人,也就可以賣出他全部的持股,賺取一大筆利潤(rùn),還有基本的手續(xù)費(fèi)。
我想到了華爾街一位著名“內(nèi)鬼”所干的一番成就。
他會(huì)拜訪一家大型證券交易公司的資深營(yíng)業(yè)員,甚至在有的時(shí)候,他會(huì)進(jìn)一步去與公司某個(gè)小股東見(jiàn)面。他說(shuō)的差不多都是這樣的話:“你看哈,老伙計(jì),你們幫了我好多次忙,我非常感謝。我要向你們提供一個(gè)能正兒八經(jīng)賺到錢的機(jī)會(huì)。我們正在組建一家能夠吸納我們一家關(guān)系公司資產(chǎn)的新公司。我們會(huì)拉抬這只股票,股價(jià)會(huì)在現(xiàn)價(jià)的基礎(chǔ)上有很大的漲幅。我準(zhǔn)備以每股65美元轉(zhuǎn)給你們500股班塔姆商店的股票。這只股票目前的價(jià)格是72美元?!?/p>
內(nèi)線人士懷著莫大的感激之情,把這個(gè)好消息講給好幾家證券交易公司的幾十位資深營(yíng)業(yè)員們聽。得到了內(nèi)線人士所提供的禮物的那些人都在華爾街謀生,當(dāng)他們獲得了一部分有錢可賺的股票后,會(huì)做什么呢?他會(huì)對(duì)自己能找到的每個(gè)人提出建議,讓他們買這只股。那些好心的送禮內(nèi)線人很清楚這個(gè)。這些人就這樣幫助內(nèi)線人士,搭建了一個(gè)市場(chǎng),讓他們能用高價(jià)把手里的股票賣給可憐的股民們。
有一些對(duì)外出售股票的方式需要被禁止。證交所應(yīng)該制止那些掛牌上市的股票按照分期付款的辦法出售給普通股民。有正式的報(bào)價(jià)會(huì)對(duì)每一只股票都產(chǎn)生約束。此外,進(jìn)入自由市場(chǎng)的正式證據(jù)和有時(shí)的價(jià)格差距,就是一只股票所需的全部誘餌。
還有一種出售股票的方法也比較常見(jiàn),能給不善于思考的股民們帶來(lái)成千上百萬(wàn)的損失,可卻沒(méi)有使任何一個(gè)操作者被抓。因?yàn)檫@種操作是合法的,以市場(chǎng)需求為基礎(chǔ),增加股本。這種程序并沒(méi)有完全改變股票的顏色。
用老股票換新股票,不管是1股換2股、4股,還是10股,這樣做的目的往往是想讓舊股票變得容易出售而已。1磅包裝的東西用1美元很難賣出去,換成1/4磅包裝的用25美分就可能會(huì)賣出去,甚至還有可能賣到27美分或者30美分呢。
為什么人們不探究股票要變得容易出售的原因?這也是華爾街上慈善事業(yè)的做法,可明智的交易人員需要謹(jǐn)慎地對(duì)付這種特洛伊木馬似的東西。人們需要的所有警告就是這個(gè)??伤麄儾还苓@些,所以每年都會(huì)賠掉數(shù)百萬(wàn)美元。
意圖制造各種謠言并傳播出去,對(duì)個(gè)人或公司的業(yè)務(wù)和名譽(yù)造成傷害,就會(huì)受到法律制裁。也就是說(shuō),故意慫恿大眾拋出股票,打壓它的價(jià)值,就會(huì)受到懲罰。這種做法本來(lái)的意圖可能是在股市不太好的時(shí)候,處罰那些對(duì)銀行的規(guī)范程度明確表示懷疑的人,以此削弱擠兌消除恐慌帶來(lái)的危險(xiǎn)。而這樣也對(duì)股民們不按照比股票價(jià)值低的價(jià)格賣出股票給予了保護(hù)。意思是,美國(guó)法律會(huì)懲罰那些傳播利空謠言的人。
怎么樣才能保護(hù)好股民,讓他們不要以比股票價(jià)值高的價(jià)格去買股票呢?誰(shuí)來(lái)懲處那些傳播利多謠言的人?無(wú)人負(fù)責(zé)啊??晒擅駛?cè)诠蓛r(jià)過(guò)高的時(shí)候,依靠不愿意透露姓名的公司內(nèi)線人士的消息來(lái)買股票,為此蒙受的損失,要比在所謂摜壓情形下,因?yàn)槔障⒍凑毡裙善眱r(jià)值低的價(jià)格賣出時(shí)受到的損失要大。
假如能夠通過(guò)法律,像懲罰一些撒謊的空頭一樣,對(duì)欺騙股民的多頭進(jìn)行懲罰的話,我相信股民們會(huì)省下幾百萬(wàn)。
當(dāng)然了,那些作手、股票承銷商,以及不報(bào)出姓名而只給出樂(lè)觀看法并因此拿到好處的人會(huì)對(duì)你說(shuō),不管誰(shuí)依靠謠言和不知名的建議去交易賠了錢,都怪你自己。這樣的話,那你也可以說(shuō),不管誰(shuí)笨得吸毒成癮,都沒(méi)有受保護(hù)的資格。
證交所應(yīng)該幫忙保護(hù)股民們不受那些不公正的行為的損害。哪個(gè)知曉內(nèi)情的人,如果想讓股民們聽從他的建議,或接受他的說(shuō)法,那就請(qǐng)他簽字畫押來(lái)負(fù)好責(zé)任。在利多的消息上簽字負(fù)責(zé)任,并不能讓消息由假變真,可卻能讓所謂的內(nèi)線人士和董事謹(jǐn)慎些。
股民們?cè)撚肋h(yuǎn)記住交易股票的要點(diǎn)。當(dāng)股票上漲的時(shí)候,沒(méi)必要花心力去搞清楚其中的原因。一直買進(jìn),它就會(huì)一直上漲。只要它一直漲價(jià),偶爾有個(gè)很正常的小幅度回調(diào),你順著股票的漲勢(shì)操作,基本上都很安全??晒蓛r(jià)若在長(zhǎng)時(shí)間平穩(wěn)上漲以后,慢慢轉(zhuǎn)成了下跌形勢(shì),偶爾有點(diǎn)兒反彈,那就很明顯了,是股票的最小阻力線開始變?yōu)橄蛳伦吡恕_@就是實(shí)情,還為何要去找原因呢?或許股價(jià)下跌的原因非常充分,可卻只有不多的幾個(gè)人明白。而他們要么不會(huì)對(duì)你說(shuō),要么把話反過(guò)來(lái)說(shuō)。這就是交易游戲的本質(zhì),大家都該清楚,知道內(nèi)情的那幾個(gè)人是不會(huì)告訴你真相的。
不管一些所謂內(nèi)線人士或董事在給出很多說(shuō)法的時(shí)候是否也報(bào)出了自己的姓名,他們都沒(méi)有什么依據(jù)。甚至有時(shí)候沒(méi)人讓內(nèi)線站出來(lái)說(shuō)話,那些說(shuō)法都只是在股市上擁有重大利益的一些人胡亂制造的謠言。在某只股票價(jià)格上漲的某個(gè)階段,很多手里有股票的內(nèi)線為了讓股票變得容易交易,是不會(huì)拒絕專業(yè)人員的幫忙的。內(nèi)線人士或許會(huì)向玩得大的人說(shuō)明該什么時(shí)候買,但卻不會(huì)告訴他什么時(shí)候賣。這樣的話,那些大作手就和普通股民在同一地位的起跑線上,不過(guò)他需要的是一個(gè)特別大的市場(chǎng)空間,以便能夠拋售。此時(shí),對(duì)股民們最能造成誤導(dǎo)的消息就會(huì)出現(xiàn)。其實(shí),在這個(gè)游戲的任何時(shí)候,你都不能相信一些所謂的內(nèi)線人士。一般情況下,大公司的某個(gè)老板或許會(huì)根據(jù)內(nèi)幕消息去股市交易。他們實(shí)際上也沒(méi)撒謊,就是沒(méi)說(shuō)話,他們知道有時(shí)需要閉口不談。
我不止一次地說(shuō)過(guò),再多說(shuō)一次也不算唆。根據(jù)我?guī)资甑慕灰捉?jīng)驗(yàn),我相信沒(méi)有誰(shuí)能夠從頭至尾地在股市中當(dāng)贏家。不過(guò),他可能會(huì)在某種條件下的某些股票上獲利。無(wú)論一個(gè)炒股的人經(jīng)驗(yàn)多么豐富,都存在著因?yàn)槌鲥e(cuò)而賠錢的可能。股票投機(jī)并不是百分百安全的事情。華爾街上的專家們很清楚,依照內(nèi)幕消息采取行動(dòng),比饑荒、瘟疫、災(zāi)荒、政治變動(dòng)以及那些普通的意外事故,更能讓人迅速破產(chǎn)。在華爾街,在其他的任何一個(gè)地方,都沒(méi)有一條柏油馬路通向成功。既然這樣,那為什么還要去做堵塞交通的事情呢?
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