劉文勇GRE寫作Argument題庫 Day 157

Day 157 Five years ago Fish Emporium started advertising in the magazine Exotic Pets Monthly

The following appeared in a memo from the marketing director of Top Dog Pet Stores.

“Five years ago Fish Emporium started advertising in the magazine Exotic Pets Monthly. Their stores saw sales increase by 15 percent after their ads began appearing in the magazine. The three Fish Emporium stores in Gulf City saw an even greater increase than that. Because Top Dog Pet Stores is based in Gulf City, it seems clear that we should start placing our own ads in Exotic Pets Monthly. If we do so, we will be sure to reverse the recent trend of declining sales and start making a profitsagain.”

Write a response in which you examine the stated and/or unstated assumptions of the argument. Be sure to explain how the argument depends on these assumptions and what the implications are for the argument if the assumptions prove unwarranted.

五問：

（1）“Five years ago Fish Emporium started advertising in the magazine Exotic Pets Monthly. Their stores saw sales increase by 15 percent after their ads began appearing in the magazine. The three Fish Emporium stores in Gulf City saw an even greater increase than that. Because Top Dog Pet Stores is based in Gulf City”是事實，“it seems clear that we should start placing our own ads in Exotic Pets Monthly”是結論，值得反駁嗎？

（2）文中以五年前的情況與現(xiàn)在進行比對是正確的做法嗎？隨著時間的變化，是否可能產生經濟情況的變化？數(shù)字與比例一定是等價的嗎？銷售總額增長 15%意味著每一個店鋪的銷售額都是增長的嗎？

（3）Fish Emporium stores的營業(yè)額增長一定是由于他們投放了廣告嗎？兩件事情同時出現(xiàn)一定意味著二者之間是因果關系嗎？是否還有其他因素？例如：商品種類增多、打折促銷活動等。

（4）在 Gulf City的三家店鋪出現(xiàn)營業(yè)額大幅增長的現(xiàn)象，與廣告投放的關系明確嗎？在 Gulf City以外的店鋪出現(xiàn)了什么樣的變化？這種變化與雜志上投放的廣告關系大嗎？是否可能存在這樣的情況，即當?shù)氐匿N量增長是由于養(yǎng)魚戶的增加而非廣告的引導？如果類似的可能性真的存在，我們能否簡單照搬 Fish Emporium公司的經驗？

（5）我們公司最近的銷售額下降是由于什么原因，是缺乏廣告推廣還是產品本身的問題？獲取利潤除了增加銷售額外還要降低成本，做廣告是否會增加成本、產生副作用？