The following recommendation appeared in a memo from the mayor of the town of Hopewell.
“Two years ago, the nearby town of Ocean View built a new municipal golf course and resort hotel. During the past two years, tourism in Ocean View has increased, new businesses have opened there, and Ocean View's tax revenues have risen by 30 percent. Therefore, the best way to improve Hopewell's economy—and generate additional tax revenues—is to build a golf course and resort hotel similar to those in Ocean View.”
Write a response in which you examine the stated and/or unstated assumptions of the argument. Be sure to explain how the argument depends on these assumptions and what the implications are for the argument if the assumptions prove unwarranted.
五問:
(1)最后一句話“Therefore, the best way to improve Hopewell's economy—and generate additional tax revenues— is to build a golf course and resort hotel similar to those in Ocean View”是結論,其余部分是事實,值得反駁嗎?
(2)本題屬于典型的類比題,大家應該嘗試回顧我們的基礎理論:到底什么樣的類比才是好的類比? Ocean View與Hopewell兩個地方需要有哪些相同的特質一致,我們才能說兩個地方應該采取相同的發(fā)展策略?比如:具備建高爾夫球場的空間環(huán)境和消費水平,本身是旅游城市等。
(3)本題中還包含了時間軸論證的特質:兩年前 Ocean View所執(zhí)行的策略一定適合兩年后的 Hopewell嗎?時間的變化是否可能導致很多因素的變化?你能羅列一兩個這樣的因素嗎?比如:經(jīng)濟狀況、人們消費水平等。
(4)原文將 Ocean View所取得的成就全部都歸結于“ build a golf course and resort hotel”,你認為合適嗎?這個結果一定是由“ build a golf course and resort hotel”帶來的嗎?一定是唯一的原因嗎?一定是最重要的原因嗎?是否可能是當?shù)仄渌a(chǎn)業(yè),如高科技產(chǎn)業(yè)的發(fā)展促進了經(jīng)濟增長?是否可能因果倒置:高爾夫球場和度假酒店的建成其實是旅游經(jīng)濟發(fā)展的結果?另外,在沒有具體稅收數(shù)額的情況下,給出百分比有參考意義嗎?
(5)“improve Hopewell's economy”的方式可能有很多,在未經(jīng)對比的情況下,我們能簡單地下結論說“最好的”是什么嗎?有沒有可能影視娛樂產(chǎn)業(yè)才是最能促進當?shù)亟?jīng)濟發(fā)展的方式呢?