The following was written as a part of an application for a small-business loan by a group of developers in the city of Monroe.
“A jazz music club in Monroe would be a tremendously profitable enterprise. Currently, the nearest jazz club is 65 miles away; thus, the proposed new jazz club in Monroe, the C-Note, would have the local market all to itself. Plus, jazz is extremely popular in Monroe: over 100,000 people attended Monroe's annual jazz festival last summer; several well-known jazz musicians live in Monroe; and the highest-rated radio program in Monroe is ‘Jazz Nightly’, which airs every weeknight at 7 P.M. Finally, a nationwide study indicates that the typical jazz fan spends close to $1,000 per year on jazz entertainment.”
Write a response in which you discuss what specific evidence is needed to evaluate the argument and explain how the evidence would weaken or strengthen the argument.
五問(wèn):
(1)“Currently, the nearest jazz club is 65 miles away”和“over 100,000 people attended Monroe's annual jazz festival last summer; several well-known jazz musicians live in Monroe; and the highest-rated radio program in Monroe is ‘Jazz Nightly’, which airs every weeknight at 7 P.M. Finally, a nationwide study indicates that the typical jazz fan spends close to $1,000 per year on jazz entertainment”是事實(shí), “A jazz music club in Monroe would be a tremendously profitable enterprise”是結(jié)論,值得反駁嗎?
(2)當(dāng)前最近的爵士俱樂(lè)部在 65英里遠(yuǎn),這是為什么?是否有這樣的可能性,就是當(dāng)?shù)厝瞬⒉幌矚g,或者并沒(méi)有孕育出能讓爵士酒吧生存下去的市場(chǎng)?另外,原文有沒(méi)有給出足夠的信息來(lái)評(píng)判 65英里對(duì)于當(dāng)?shù)厝藖?lái)說(shuō)是否足夠遠(yuǎn)?當(dāng)?shù)厝鄙?jazz club就意味著新開(kāi)的 C-Note一定會(huì)受歡迎嗎?其他因素,例如價(jià)格、服務(wù)水平等,都會(huì)影響人們的決定。
(3)有超過(guò)十萬(wàn)人參加當(dāng)?shù)孛磕暌欢鹊木羰恳魳?lè)節(jié),是否就意味著他們一定很喜歡爵士樂(lè)?這些人一定是當(dāng)?shù)厝藛??一些著名的爵士?lè)手住在當(dāng)?shù)?,這會(huì)增加還是減少當(dāng)?shù)厝巳ゾ羰烤瓢傻母怕剩?/p>
(4)當(dāng)?shù)刈钍軞g迎的廣播節(jié)目與爵士樂(lè)相關(guān),是否就意味著這里的人們一定很喜歡爵士樂(lè)?還有其他哪些因素會(huì)影響一個(gè)廣播節(jié)目受歡迎的程度?比如,節(jié)目的播出時(shí)間就極其重要。
(5)原文最后給出了一個(gè)全國(guó)范圍的調(diào)查,但這個(gè)調(diào)查結(jié)果一定適用于當(dāng)?shù)貑??集體特點(diǎn)一定適用于個(gè)體嗎?樂(lè)迷每年花費(fèi)的 1 000美元一定是用在 jazz club上嗎?這筆錢(qián)也可能用于買(mǎi)唱片、買(mǎi)演唱會(huì)門(mén)票等。另外,有市場(chǎng)就一定會(huì)盈利嗎?酒吧的運(yùn)營(yíng)、管理等都會(huì)對(duì)盈利與否造成影響。
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