演講MP3+雙語文稿:在不可預(yù)知的世界中，我們能做些什么

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聽力課堂TED音頻欄目主要包括TED演講的音頻MP3及中英雙語文稿，供各位英語愛好者學(xué)習(xí)使用。本文主要內(nèi)容為演講MP3+雙語文稿:在不可預(yù)知的世界中，我們能做些什么，希望你會(huì)喜歡！

【演講人及介紹】Margaret Heffernan

作家，企業(yè)家瑪格麗特·赫弗南（Margaret Heffernan）是五家企業(yè)的前首席執(zhí)行官，她探索了導(dǎo)致組織和經(jīng)理誤入歧途的過分人性化的思維模式。

【演講主題】不可預(yù)知的世界里需要哪些人類技能

【演講文稿-中英文】

翻譯者 Carol Wang 校對(duì) Yanyan Hong

00:12

Recently, the leadership team of anAmerican supermarket chain decided that their business needed to get a lot moreefficient. So they embraced their digital transformation with zeal. Out wentthe teams supervising meat, veg, bakery, and in came an algorithmic taskallocator. Now, instead of people working together, each employee went, clockedin, got assigned a task, did it, came back for more. This was scientificmanagement on steroids, standardizing and allocating work. It was superefficient.

最近，一個(gè)美國(guó)連鎖超市的領(lǐng)導(dǎo)團(tuán)隊(duì)決定，他們的業(yè)務(wù)需大幅提高效率，所以，他們熱情地接受了數(shù)字化轉(zhuǎn)型，原先的團(tuán)隊(duì)對(duì)肉類、蔬菜、烘焙的管理，而今被一個(gè)任務(wù)分配算法取而代之?，F(xiàn)在，大家不再是一起工作，而是每個(gè)員工到公司打卡、領(lǐng)任務(wù)，完成任務(wù)后，再回來領(lǐng)更多任務(wù)。這類似于對(duì)類固醇的科學(xué)管理，將工作標(biāo)準(zhǔn)化后進(jìn)行工作分配，它非常高效。

00:50

Well, not quite, because the task allocatordidn't know when a customer was going to drop a box of eggs, couldn't predictwhen some crazy kid was going to knock over a display, or when the local highschool decided that everybody needed to bring in coconuts the next day.

不過也不完全是，因?yàn)槿蝿?wù)分配器不知道客戶何時(shí)會(huì)把一盒雞蛋掉到地上，也無法預(yù)測(cè)哪個(gè)皮孩子會(huì)在何時(shí)撞翻展示架，或者哪天當(dāng)?shù)馗咧袝?huì)決定第二天讓每人帶椰子去學(xué)校。

01:07

(Laughter)

（笑聲）

01:08

Efficiency works really well when you canpredict exactly what you're going to need. But when the anomalous or unexpectedcomes along -- kids, customers, coconuts -- well, then efficiency is no longeryour friend.

當(dāng)你能準(zhǔn)確預(yù)測(cè)出自己會(huì)需要什么時(shí)，效率非常重要。但是，當(dāng)異?；蛞馔獬霈F(xiàn)時(shí)——如孩子、顧客、椰子——那么效率就不再是你的朋友了。

01:24

This has become a really crucial issue,this ability to deal with the unexpected, because the unexpected is becomingthe norm. It's why experts and forecasters are reluctant to predict anythingmore than 400 days out. Why? Because over the last 20 or 30 years, much of theworld has gone from being complicated to being complex -- which means that yes,there are patterns, but they don't repeat themselves regularly. It means thatvery small changes can make a disproportionate impact. And it means thatexpertise won't always suffice, because the system just keeps changing toofast.

這種處理意外的能力就變得非常關(guān)鍵了，因?yàn)橐馔馇闆r會(huì)成為常態(tài)。這就是為什么專家和預(yù)測(cè)人員不愿意預(yù)測(cè)任何超過 400 天的事情。為什么？因?yàn)樵谶^去的 20 或 30 年里，世界上的許多地方已經(jīng)從繁雜變?yōu)閺?fù)雜——這意味著，模式雖然存在，但它們不會(huì)經(jīng)常重復(fù)。這意味著，非常小的變化可能會(huì)產(chǎn)生巨大影響；專業(yè)知識(shí)也許總是不夠，因?yàn)橄到y(tǒng)變化太快。

02:08

So what that means is that there's a hugeamount in the world that kind of defies forecasting now. It's why the Bank ofEngland will say yes, there will be another crash, but we don't know why orwhen. We know that climate change is real, but we can't predict where forestfires will break out, and we don't know which factories are going to flood.It's why companies are blindsided when plastic straws and bags and bottledwater go from staples to rejects overnight, and baffled when a change in socialmores turns stars into pariahs and colleagues into outcasts: ineradicableuncertainty. In an environment that defies so much forecasting, efficiencywon't just not help us, it specifically undermines and erodes our capacity toadapt and respond.

也就是說，世界上有大量的東西現(xiàn)在無法預(yù)測(cè)。這就是為什么英格蘭銀行會(huì)說，“是的，會(huì)有另一次崩盤，但我們不知道為什么或何時(shí)發(fā)生?！蔽覀冎罋夂蜃兓钦鎸?shí)的，但我們無法預(yù)測(cè)哪里會(huì)有森林火災(zāi)，也不知道哪些工廠會(huì)發(fā)生洪澇。這就是為什么當(dāng)一夜之間，塑料吸管、塑料袋和瓶裝水從生活必需品變成人人喊打的產(chǎn)品，制造公司卻會(huì)感到不知所措；當(dāng)社會(huì)動(dòng)蕩的變化將明星變成棄兒、同事變成被驅(qū)逐的人時(shí)，他們會(huì)感到困惑：不可避免的不確定性。在令眾多預(yù)測(cè)無效的環(huán)境中，效率不僅無法幫助我們，反倒會(huì)破壞和削弱我們的適應(yīng)和應(yīng)對(duì)能力。

03:16

So if efficiency is no longer our guidingprinciple, how should we address the future? What kind of thinking is reallygoing to help us? What sort of talents must we be sure to defend? I think that,where in the past we used to think a lot about just in time management, now wehave to start thinking about just in case, preparing for events that aregenerally certain but specifically remain ambiguous.

因此，如果效率不再是指導(dǎo)原則，那么，我們?cè)撊绾螒?yīng)對(duì)未來呢？什么樣的思考才能真正幫到我們呢？我們必須要捍衛(wèi)什么樣的才能？過去我們經(jīng)常思考“及時(shí)管理”，現(xiàn)在，我認(rèn)為我們必須開始考慮“以防萬一”，為一般情況下雖然很確定，但仍不能完全掌握的情況做準(zhǔn)備。

03:45

One example of this is the Coalition forEpidemic Preparedness, CEPI. We know there will be more epidemics in future,but we don't know where or when or what. So we can't plan. But we can prepare.So CEPI's developing multiple vaccines for multiple diseases, knowing that theycan't predict which vaccines are going to work or which diseases will breakout. So some of those vaccines will never be used. That's inefficient. But it'srobust, because it provides more options, and it means that we don't depend ona single technological solution. Epidemic responsiveness also depends hugely onpeople who know and trust each other. But those relationships take time todevelop, time that is always in short supply when an epidemic breaks out. SoCEPI is developing relationships, friendships, alliances now knowing that someof those may never be used. That's inefficient, a waste of time, perhaps, butit's robust.

其中一個(gè)例子是流行病預(yù)防聯(lián)盟，即 CEPI。我們知道將來會(huì)有更多流行病，但不知何地、何時(shí)、是哪種流行病。所以我們根本無法計(jì)劃，但我們可為此準(zhǔn)備。因此，CEPI 正針對(duì)多種疾病開發(fā)疫苗，他們知道，無法預(yù)測(cè)哪種疫苗會(huì)起作用、或者說，哪種疾病會(huì)爆發(fā)。因此，一些疫苗將永遠(yuǎn)用不到。這樣做的效率很低，但它很強(qiáng)大，因?yàn)樗峁┝烁噙x擇，這意味著我們不再依賴于單一的技術(shù)解決方案。對(duì)流行病的響應(yīng)能力很大程度上取決于相互了解和信任的人。但建立這些關(guān)系需要時(shí)間，當(dāng)流行病爆發(fā)時(shí)，時(shí)間總不夠用。因此，CEPI 眼下正在建立關(guān)系、友誼、聯(lián)盟，深諳其中一些可能永遠(yuǎn)用不到。這可能效率低、浪費(fèi)時(shí)間，但這種做法十分穩(wěn)妥。

04:59

You can see robust thinking in financialservices, too. In the past, banks used to hold much less capital than they'rerequired to today, because holding so little capital, being too efficient withit, is what made the banks so fragile in the first place. Now, holding morecapital looks and is inefficient. But it's robust, because it protects thefinancial system against surprises.

在金融服務(wù)中，你也能看到穩(wěn)健性思維。在過去，通常銀行持有的資本遠(yuǎn)遠(yuǎn)少于今天所需的資本，因?yàn)槌钟腥绱松俚馁Y本、過于高效的做法 會(huì)首先使銀行變得很脆弱?，F(xiàn)在，持有更多資本 看起來效率低，也確實(shí)效率低。但它很穩(wěn)健，因?yàn)樗梢?保護(hù)金融系統(tǒng)免受意外。

05:29

Countries that are really serious aboutclimate change know that they have to adopt multiple solutions, multiple formsof renewable energy, not just one. The countries that are most advanced havebeen working for years now, changing their water and food supply and healthcaresystems, because they recognize that by the time they have certain prediction,that information may very well come too late.

對(duì)氣候變化非常認(rèn)真的國(guó)家知道，他們必須采用多種解決方案、多種形式的可再生能源，而不僅僅是一種。最先進(jìn)的國(guó)家多年來一直致力于改變水和食品供應(yīng)和醫(yī)療保健系統(tǒng)，因?yàn)樗麄冋J(rèn)識(shí)到，就算他們預(yù)測(cè)到了，到那時(shí)候再搜集這些信息可能就太晚了。

05:57

You can take the same approach to tradewars, and many countries do. Instead of depending on a single huge tradingpartner, they try to be everybody's friends, because they know they can'tpredict which markets might suddenly become unstable. It's time-consuming andexpensive, negotiating all these deals, but it's robust because it makes theirwhole economy better defended against shocks. It's particularly a strategyadopted by small countries that know they'll never have the market muscle tocall the shots, so it's just better to have too many friends. But if you'restuck in one of these organizations that's still kind of captured by theefficiency myth, how do you start to change it? Try some experiments.

同樣的方式也可以用來應(yīng)對(duì)貿(mào)易戰(zhàn)，許多國(guó)家也是這樣做的。與其依賴一個(gè)強(qiáng)有力的貿(mào)易伙伴，不如試圖成為每個(gè)人的朋友，因?yàn)樗麄冎罒o法預(yù)測(cè)，哪些市場(chǎng)可能會(huì)突然變得不穩(wěn)定。所有這些交易的談判耗時(shí)又昂貴，但它很穩(wěn)定，因?yàn)樗拐麄€(gè)經(jīng)濟(jì)體能更好地抵御沖擊。小國(guó)家尤其喜歡采用這樣的策略，他們知道靠自己的市場(chǎng)力量永遠(yuǎn)不可能做主，所以擁有朋友越多越好。但如果你陷入其中一個(gè)依然崇尚效率神話的組織里，你又如何開始改變呢？嘗試一些實(shí)驗(yàn)吧。

06:50

In the Netherlands, home care nursing usedto be run pretty much like the supermarket: standardized and prescribed work tothe minute: nine minutes on Monday, seven minutes on Wednesday, eight minuteson Friday. The nurses hated it. So one of them, Jos de Blok, proposed anexperiment. Since every patient is different, and we don't quite know exactlywhat they'll need, why don't we just leave it to the nurses to decide?

過去在荷蘭，家庭護(hù)理業(yè)的運(yùn)作非常像超市：標(biāo)準(zhǔn)化和規(guī)定的工作量化到分鐘： 周一 9 分鐘、周三 7 分鐘、 周五 8 分鐘。護(hù)士們討厭這些，所以其中叫喬斯·德·勃洛克 （Jos de Blok）的人 提議做一個(gè)實(shí)驗(yàn)。由于每個(gè)患者都不同，我們并不確切知道他們需要什么，為何不讓護(hù)士來決定呢？

07:21

Sound reckless?

聽起來很魯莽嗎？

07:22

(Laughter)

（笑聲）

07:24

(Applause)

（掌聲）

07:26

In his experiment, Jos found the patientsgot better in half the time, and costs fell by 30 percent. When I asked Joswhat had surprised him about his experiment, he just kind of laughed and hesaid, "Well, I had no idea it could be so easy to find such a hugeimprovement, because this isn't the kind of thing you can know or predictsitting at a desk or staring at a computer screen." So now this form ofnursing has proliferated across the Netherlands and around the world. But inevery new country it still starts with experiments, because each place isslightly and unpredictably different.

在實(shí)驗(yàn)中，喬斯發(fā)現(xiàn)，只需原來一半的時(shí)間，患者反而恢復(fù)得更好了，成本還下降了30％。當(dāng)我問喬斯，實(shí)驗(yàn)的哪個(gè)部分讓他感到驚訝時(shí)，他只是笑了笑，說道：“我沒想到 這么容易就做出了如此巨大的改進(jìn)，因?yàn)檫@不是你坐在辦公桌前 或盯著電腦屏幕 就能了解或預(yù)知的事情?！?“所以，現(xiàn)在這種形式的護(hù)理 已在荷蘭和世界各地蔓延開來。但在每個(gè)新的國(guó)家，它仍然從實(shí)驗(yàn)開始，因?yàn)槊總€(gè)地方都有所不同，而且無法提前預(yù)測(cè)。

08:11

Of course, not all experiments work. Jostried a similar approach to the fire service and found it didn't work becausethe service is just too centralized. Failed experiments look inefficient, butthey're often the only way you can figure out how the real world works. So nowhe's trying teachers. Experiments like that require creativity and not a littlebravery.

當(dāng)然，并非所有實(shí)驗(yàn)都有效。喬斯嘗試了類似的消防服務(wù)方法，發(fā)現(xiàn)它沒什么用，因?yàn)榉?wù)過于集中。失敗的實(shí)驗(yàn)看起來效率低下，但它們往往是弄清現(xiàn)實(shí)世界如何運(yùn)作的唯一方法。所以，現(xiàn)在他正在教育行業(yè)嘗試。像這樣的實(shí)驗(yàn)需要?jiǎng)?chuàng)造力，而不是單單一點(diǎn)勇氣就可以的。

08:41

In England -- I was about to say in the UK,but in England --

在英格蘭——我正準(zhǔn)備說在英國(guó)呢，其實(shí)是在英格蘭——

08:46

(Laughter)

（笑聲）

08:48

(Applause)

（掌聲）

08:53

In England, the leading rugby team, or oneof the leading rugby teams, is Saracens. The manager and the coach thererealized that all the physical training they do and the data-drivenconditioning that they do has become generic; really, all the teams do exactlythe same thing. So they risked an experiment. They took the whole team away,even in match season, on ski trips and to look at social projects in Chicago.This was expensive, it was time-consuming, and it could be a little riskyputting a whole bunch of rugby players on a ski slope, right?

在英格蘭，領(lǐng)先的橄欖球隊(duì)，或領(lǐng)先的橄欖球隊(duì)之一是撒拉遜人 （Saracens）。球隊(duì)的經(jīng)理和教練意識(shí)到，他們做的全部體能訓(xùn)練 和數(shù)據(jù)驅(qū)動(dòng)訓(xùn)練 已變得通用化； 實(shí)際上，所有球隊(duì)都做同樣的事情，所以，他們冒險(xiǎn)做了一個(gè)實(shí)驗(yàn)。即使還在賽季中，他們依然帶領(lǐng)整個(gè)團(tuán)隊(duì)去滑雪，并觀察芝加哥的社交項(xiàng)目。這些活動(dòng)費(fèi)用很高，又耗費(fèi)時(shí)間，讓全隊(duì)的橄欖球運(yùn)動(dòng)員待在滑雪坡上，可能還是有點(diǎn)冒險(xiǎn)的吧？

09:32

(Laughter)

（笑聲）

09:33

But what they found was that the playerscame back with renewed bonds of loyalty and solidarity. And now when they're onthe pitch under incredible pressure, they manifest what the manager calls"poise" -- an unflinching, unwavering dedication to each other. Theiropponents are in awe of this, but still too in thrall to efficiency to try it.

但他們發(fā)現(xiàn)，回來之后，球員們更加忠誠、團(tuán)隊(duì)關(guān)系更堅(jiān)固了。而現(xiàn)在，當(dāng)他們?cè)谇驁?chǎng)上面臨令人難以置信的壓力時(shí)，他們能做到經(jīng)理所說的“鎮(zhèn)靜”——一種彼此間堅(jiān)定不移、毫不動(dòng)搖的奉獻(xiàn)精神。他們的對(duì)手對(duì)此感到敬畏，但又太被效率所束縛而不敢嘗試這種方式。

10:05

At a London tech company, Verve, the CEOmeasures just about everything that moves, but she couldn't find anything thatmade any difference to the company's productivity. So she devised an experimentthat she calls "Love Week": a whole week where each employee has tolook for really clever, helpful, imaginative things that a counterpart does,call it out and celebrate it. It takes a huge amount of time and effort; lotsof people would call it distracting. But it really energizes the business andmakes the whole company more productive.

倫敦有一家名叫沃吾 （Verve）的科技公司，他們的首席執(zhí)行官 量化了一切工作量，但她找不到 對(duì)公司生產(chǎn)力產(chǎn)生關(guān)鍵影響的東西。因此，她設(shè)計(jì)了一個(gè) 她稱之為“愛之周”的實(shí)驗(yàn)： 整整一周，每個(gè)員工 必須尋找隊(duì)友所做的非常聰明、 有益、富有想象力的事情，說出來，并贊美它。這需要大量的時(shí)間和精力；很多人會(huì)稱它分散注意力。但它確實(shí)為企業(yè)注入了活力，使整個(gè)公司的生產(chǎn)力大幅提高。

10:44

Preparedness, coalition-building,imagination, experiments, bravery -- in an unpredictable age, these aretremendous sources of resilience and strength. They aren't efficient, but theygive us limitless capacity for adaptation, variation and invention. And theless we know about the future, the more we're going to need these tremendoussources of human, messy, unpredictable skills.

準(zhǔn)備就緒、聯(lián)盟建設(shè)、想象力、實(shí)驗(yàn)、 勇氣 —— 在不可預(yù)測(cè)的時(shí)代，這些都是堅(jiān)韌和力量的巨大來源。雖然它們的效率不高，但它們?yōu)槲覀兲峁┝藷o限的適應(yīng)、變化和創(chuàng)新能力。我們對(duì)未來的了解越少，就會(huì)越需要這些人類所擁有的雜亂的、不可預(yù)測(cè)的技能的巨大來源。

11:27

But in our growing dependence ontechnology, we're asset-stripping those skills. Every time we use technology tonudge us through a decision or a choice or to interpret how somebody's feelingor to guide us through a conversation, we outsource to a machine what we could,can do ourselves, and it's an expensive trade-off. The more we let machinesthink for us, the less we can think for ourselves. The more --

但是，隨著對(duì)技術(shù)的日益依賴，我們正在削減這些技能。每次我們使用科技來推動(dòng)做出決定或選擇時(shí)、或者用科技來解讀人的感受、或用科技引導(dǎo)我們完成對(duì)話時(shí)，我們是在將本來應(yīng)該自己做而且能做的事情外包給機(jī)器去完成，這是一項(xiàng)昂貴的交換。讓機(jī)器為我們思考得越多，我們就越不能為自己思考。越多的——

12:06

(Applause)

（掌聲）

12:11

The more time doctors spend staring atdigital medical records, the less time they spend looking at their patients.The more we use parenting apps, the less we know our kids. The more time wespend with people that we're predicted and programmed to like, the less we canconnect with people who are different from ourselves. And the less compassionwe need, the less compassion we have.

醫(yī)生看數(shù)字醫(yī)療記錄的時(shí)間越多，他們用來問診病人的時(shí)間就會(huì)越少。育兒應(yīng)用程序用得越多，我們對(duì)孩子的了解就會(huì)越少。花費(fèi)在預(yù)測(cè)我們會(huì)喜歡，或計(jì)劃喜歡的人的時(shí)間越長(zhǎng)，我們就越不會(huì)和與自己不同的人聯(lián)系。我們需要的同情越少，我們的同情心就會(huì)越少。

12:41

What all of these technologies attempt todo is to force-fit a standardized model of a predictable reality onto a worldthat is infinitely surprising. What gets left out? Anything that can't bemeasured -- which is just about everything that counts.

所有這些科技都在試圖用可預(yù)測(cè)現(xiàn)實(shí)的標(biāo)準(zhǔn)化模型去強(qiáng)制適應(yīng)一個(gè)給你無限驚喜的世界。我們遺漏了什么？我們遺漏了所有無法衡量的東西—— 幾乎都是非常重要的東西。

13:05

(Applause)

（掌聲）

13:14

Our growing dependence on technology risksus becoming less skilled, more vulnerable to the deep and growing complexity ofthe real world.

我們對(duì)科技的日益依賴使我們面臨自身技能變差的風(fēng)險(xiǎn)，使我們更容易受到深層和日益復(fù)雜的現(xiàn)實(shí)世界的影響。

13:29

Now, as I was thinking about the extremesof stress and turbulence that we know we will have to confront, I went and Italked to a number of chief executives whose own businesses had gone throughexistential crises, when they teetered on the brink of collapse. These werefrank, gut-wrenching conversations. Many men wept just remembering. So I askedthem: "What kept you going through this?"

當(dāng)我想到我們必須面對(duì)的極端壓力和動(dòng)蕩時(shí)，我曾找過一些首席執(zhí)行官談話，他們自己的企業(yè)都經(jīng)歷過生存危機(jī)，那時(shí)他們?cè)鵀l臨崩潰的邊緣。這些是坦誠而痛苦的對(duì)話，很多男子漢回顧往事都不禁潸然淚下。我問他們：“是什么讓你克服了危機(jī)？”

14:05

And they all had exactly the same answer."It wasn't data or technology," they said. "It was my friendsand my colleagues who kept me going."

他們都有完全相同的答案?！安皇菙?shù)據(jù)或科技，”他們說?！岸俏业呐笥押屯聜冎С种依^續(xù)前進(jìn)?！?/p>

14:17

One added, "It was pretty much theopposite of the gig economy."

其中一位補(bǔ)充說：“這與臨時(shí)工性質(zhì)完全相反?！?/p>

14:24

But then I went and I talked to a group ofyoung, rising executives, and I asked them, "Who are your friends atwork?" And they just looked blank.

后來我又去和一群年輕新晉高管交談，我問他們：“工作中有誰是你朋友嗎？”他們看起來很困惑，

14:33

"There's no time."

“沒時(shí)間交朋友?！?/p>

14:35

"They're too busy."

“他們太忙了?！?/p>

14:37

"It's not efficient."

“交朋友效率低下?！?/p>

14:39

Who, I wondered, is going to give themimagination and stamina and bravery when the storms come?

我想知道的是，當(dāng)暴風(fēng)雨來臨時(shí)，誰去賦予他們想象力、毅力和勇氣呢？

14:51

Anyone who tries to tell you that they knowthe future is just trying to own it, a spurious kind of manifest destiny. Theharder, deeper truth is that the future is uncharted, that we can't map it tillwe get there.

任何試圖告訴你他們知道未來的人，他們只是試圖擁有未來，這是一種虛假的天定命運(yùn)。更難、更深刻的事實(shí)是，未來是未知的，在它來臨前，根本無法知曉。

15:10

But that's OK, because we have so muchimagination -- if we use it. We have deep talents of inventiveness andexploration -- if we apply them. We are brave enough to invent things we'venever seen before. Lose those skills, and we are adrift. But hone and developthem, we can make any future we choose.

但那沒關(guān)系，因?yàn)槲覀冇泻芏嘞胂罅Α绻覀兛先ハ胂蟮脑?。我們有?chuàng)造和探索的深厚才能——如果我們肯應(yīng)用這些才能的話。我們足夠勇敢去發(fā)明以前從未見過的東西，同樣，要是失去這些技能，我們只能隨波逐流。但是，磨練和發(fā)展這些技能，我們就可以創(chuàng)造出我們選擇的任何未來。

15:44

Thank you.

謝謝！

15:45

(Applause)

（掌聲）