演講MP3+雙語(yǔ)文稿:合成生物將如何毀滅人類——是時(shí)候正視這個(gè)威脅了

00:00

00:00

MP3下載

https://online2.tingclass.net/lesson/shi0529/10000/10387/tedyp13.mp3

https://image.tingclass.net/statics/js/2012

聽(tīng)力課堂TED音頻欄目主要包括TED演講的音頻MP3及中英雙語(yǔ)文稿，供各位英語(yǔ)愛(ài)好者學(xué)習(xí)使用。本文主要內(nèi)容為演講MP3+雙語(yǔ)文稿:合成生物將如何毀滅人類——是時(shí)候正視這個(gè)威脅了，希望你會(huì)喜歡！

【Rob Reid】合成生物將如何毀滅人類——是時(shí)候正視這個(gè)威脅了

【演講人】Rob Reid

【演講主題】《合成生物將如何毀滅人類——是時(shí)候正視這個(gè)威脅了》

翻譯者：psjmz mz校對(duì)者：Yolanda Zhang

00:04

So, there's about seven and a half billion of us.The World Health Organization tells us that 300 million of us are depressed,and about 800,000 people take their lives every year.A tiny subset of them choose a profoundly nihilistic route,which is they die in the act of killing as many people as possible.These are some famous recent examples.And here's a less famous one. It happened about nine weeks ago.If you don't remember it,it's because there's a lot of this going on. just last year counted 323 mass shootingsin my home country, the United States.Not all of those shooters were suicidal,not all of them were maximizing their death tolls,but many, many were.

現(xiàn)在地球上大約有75億人口。世界衛(wèi)生組織告訴我們這其中有3000萬(wàn)人身患抑郁癥，每年大約有80萬(wàn)人選擇結(jié)束自己的生命。他們中的一小部分選擇了一種深刻的虛無(wú)主義路線，那就是他們選擇通過(guò)殺死盡可能多的人的方式死去。這里有一些最近比較著名的例子。同時(shí)也有一個(gè)不那么出名的。這件事發(fā)生在大約九個(gè)星期前。如果你不記得了，是因?yàn)橛刑噙@樣的事情在發(fā)生。維基百科僅去年就統(tǒng)計(jì)了323起大規(guī)模槍擊事件，發(fā)生在我的故鄉(xiāng)，美國(guó)。并不是所有的那些槍擊犯都想自殺，并不是所有人都在最大化死亡人數(shù)，但是很多、很多人是。

00:49

An important question becomes: What limits do these people have?Take the Vegas shooter.He slaughtered 58 people.Did he stop there because he'd had enough?No, and we know this because he shot and injured another 422 peoplewho he surely would have preferred to kill.We have no reason to think he would have stopped at 4,200.In fact, with somebody this nihilistic, he may well have gladly killed us all.We don't know.What we do know is this:when suicidal murderers really go all in,technology is the force multiplier.

一個(gè)重要的問(wèn)題變成了：這些人有上限嗎？以拉斯維加斯槍擊案為例。他屠殺了58人。他在那里停下來(lái)是因?yàn)樗麣蛄藛?？不是的，我們知道這一點(diǎn)是因?yàn)樗麚魝肆硗?22人，而這些人他肯定更愿意選擇殺死他們。我們沒(méi)有理由去認(rèn)為他可能會(huì)在4200人時(shí)停下來(lái)。事實(shí)上，對(duì)某些虛無(wú)主義的人來(lái)說(shuō)，他可能會(huì)非常樂(lè)意把我們都?xì)⒘?。我們不知道。我們知道的是：?dāng)自殺式兇手真的全部都要?dú)⑷藭r(shí)，技術(shù)則是力量倍增器。

01:26

Here's an example.Several years back, there was a rash of 10 mass school attacks in Chinacarried out with things like knives and hammers and cleavers,because guns are really hard to get there.By macabre coincidence, this last attack occurredjust hours before the massacre in Newtown, Connecticut.But that one American attack killed roughly the same number of victimsas the 10 Chinese attacks combined.So we can fairly say, knife: terrible; gun: way worse.And airplane: massively worse,as pilot Andreas Lubitz showed when he forced 149 peopleto join him in his suicide,smashing a plane into the French Alps.

這里有一個(gè)例子?；氐綆啄昵埃袊?guó)發(fā)生了十起不顧后果的校園攻擊，這些攻擊使用的是像刀、鐵錘和劈刀等工具，因?yàn)樵谥袊?guó)槍是很難獲取的?？膳碌那珊鲜?，這最后一次襲擊發(fā)生的時(shí)間正好是康涅狄格州紐鎮(zhèn)大屠殺的幾個(gè)小時(shí)前。但是那一次美國(guó)式襲擊受害人數(shù)量大約是十次中國(guó)襲擊的總和。所以我們可以說(shuō)，刀：可怕；槍：更糟糕。飛機(jī)：相當(dāng)糟糕，飛行員Andreas Lubitz展示過(guò)他強(qiáng)迫149個(gè)人加入他的自殺行為，將飛機(jī)撞上了法國(guó)阿爾卑斯山脈。

02:11

And there are other examples of this.And I'm afraid there are far more deadly weapons in our near future than airplanes,ones not made of metal.So let's consider the apocalyptic dynamics that will ensueif suicidal mass murder hitches a ride on a rapidly advancing fieldthat for the most part holds boundless promise for society.Somewhere out there in the world, there's a tiny group of peoplewho would attempt, however ineptly,to kill us all if they could just figure out how.The Vegas shooter may or may not have been one of them,but with seven and a half billion of us,this is a nonzero population.There's plenty of suicidal nihilists out there.We've already seen that.There's people with severe mood disorders that they can't even control.There are people who have just suffered deranging traumas, etc. etc.As for the corollary group,its size was simply zero forever until the Cold War,when suddenly, the leaders of two global alliancesattained the ability to blow up the world.

這有一些其它這樣的例子。我很擔(dān)心在不久的未來(lái)將會(huì)有比飛機(jī)更加致命的武器出現(xiàn)，沒(méi)有一個(gè)是金屬制造。所以我們可以認(rèn)為如果大規(guī)模自殺式謀殺搭上了社會(huì)快速發(fā)展的便車，那么世界末日的動(dòng)力將隨之而來(lái)，而這個(gè)領(lǐng)域在很大程度上能為社會(huì)帶來(lái)無(wú)限的希望。在這個(gè)世界上的某個(gè)地方，有那么一小部分人，如果他們知道方法，會(huì)嘗試把我們都?xì)⒐?。拉斯維加斯的槍手可能是，也可能不是這其中的一員，但是我們有75億的人口，這是個(gè)非零的總體。這世界上有很多自殺虛無(wú)主義者。我們已經(jīng)見(jiàn)到過(guò)了。同樣也有很多人有著他們自己也無(wú)法控制的嚴(yán)重的情緒障礙。也有人經(jīng)受著精神錯(cuò)亂的創(chuàng)傷，等等。至于推論群體，它的規(guī)模在冷戰(zhàn)之前一直是零。突然之間，兩個(gè)全球性聯(lián)盟的領(lǐng)導(dǎo)人獲得了炸毀世界的能力。

03:18

The number of people with actual doomsday buttonshas stayed fairly stable since then.But I'm afraid it's about to grow,and not just to three.This is going off the charts.I mean, it's going to look like a tech business plan.

從那之后，實(shí)際擁有世界末日按鈕的人數(shù)一直保持著穩(wěn)定。但是恐怕這個(gè)數(shù)字將會(huì)增長(zhǎng)，而且并不止三個(gè)，已經(jīng)多到圖表快要裝不下了。我的意思是，它看起來(lái)像一個(gè)技術(shù)企業(yè)計(jì)劃。

03:32

（Laughter）

03:36

And the reason is,we're in the era of exponential technologies,which routinely take eternal impossibilitiesand make them the actual superpowers of one or two living geniusesand -- this is the big part --then diffuse those powers to more or less everybody.

而原因則是，我們處在技術(shù)爆炸的時(shí)代，常規(guī)來(lái)說(shuō)就是將永恒的不可能變成一兩個(gè)現(xiàn)有天才的實(shí)實(shí)在在的超能力，并且——這是很重要的一部分——然后這些能力多多少少會(huì)擴(kuò)散到每一個(gè)人。

03:56

Now, here's a benign example.If you wanted to play checkers with a computer in 1952,you literally had to be that guy,then commandeer one of the world's 19 copies of that computer,then used your Nobel-adjacent brain to teach it checkers.That was the bar.Today, you just need to know someone who knows someone who owns a telephone,because computing is an exponential technology.

這里有一個(gè)很好的例子。如果你想在1952年用電腦玩跳棋，你必須得是那個(gè)家伙，然后霸占世界上19臺(tái)電腦的其中一臺(tái)，用你媲美諾貝爾獎(jiǎng)的大腦教它下跳棋。那就是當(dāng)時(shí)的門檻。今天你只需要認(rèn)識(shí)一個(gè)知道誰(shuí)有電話的人，因?yàn)橛?jì)算機(jī)是指數(shù)級(jí)增長(zhǎng)的技術(shù)。

04:25

So is synthetic biology,which I'll now refer to as "synbio."And in 2011, a couple of researchers did something every bit as ingeniousand unprecedented as the checkers trickwith H5N1 flu.This is a strain that kills up to 60 percent of the people it infects,more than Ebola.But it is so uncontagiousthat it's killed fewer than 50 people since 2015.So these researchers edited H5N1's genomeand made it every bit as deadly, but also wildly contagious.The news arm of one of the world's top two scientific journalssaid if this thing got out, it would likely cause a pandemicwith perhaps millions of deaths.And Dr. Paul Keim saidhe could not think of an organism as scary as this,which is the last thing I personally want to hearfrom the Chairman of the National Science Advisory Board on Biosecurity.And by the way, Dr. Keim also said this -合成生物學(xué)也是如此，今天我會(huì)稱之為"synbio"。2011年，一群研究者用H5N1病毒做了件就像跳棋一樣非常巧妙和史無(wú)前例的事情。H5N1這種病毒能殺死60%的感染者，致死率超過(guò)埃博拉病毒。但它的傳染性很弱，自2015年以來(lái)只造成了不到50人死亡。于是這些研究者編輯了H5N1的基因并使其更致命，但也具有更廣泛的傳染性。世界兩大科學(xué)期刊之一的新聞部門表示，如果這個(gè)東西被泄露出去，很可能會(huì)大面積傳染，導(dǎo)致數(shù)百萬(wàn)人的死亡。Paul Keim博士說(shuō)，他想不出還有什么生物體這么可怕，這是我個(gè)人最不想從國(guó)家生物安全科學(xué)咨詢委員會(huì)主席那里聽(tīng)到的。順便說(shuō)一句，Keim博士還提到：

05:29

["I don't think anthrax is scary at all compared to this."]

【“跟這些相比， 我不認(rèn)為炭疽熱可怕?！?/p>

05:32

And he's also one of these.

他還是這群人中的一員：

05:34

[Anthrax expert] （Laughter）

他還是這群人中的一員：

05:35

Now, the good news about the 2011 biohackis that the people who did it didn't mean us any harm.They're virologists.They believed they were advancing science.The bad news is that technology does not freeze in place,and over the next few decades,their feat will become trivially easy.In fact, it's already way easier, because as we learned yesterday morning,just two years after they did their work,the CRISPR system was harnessed for genome editing.This was a radical breakthroughthat makes gene editing massively easier --so easy that CRISPR is now taught in high schools.And this stuff is moving quicker than computing.That slow, stodgy white line up there?That's Moore's law.That shows us how quickly computing is getting cheaper.That steep, crazy-fun green line,that shows us how quickly genetic sequencing is getting cheaper.Now, gene editing and synthesis and sequencing,they're different disciplines, but they're tightly related.And they're all moving in these headlong rates.And the keys to the kingdom are these tiny, tiny data files.That is an excerpt of H5N1's genome.The whole thing can fit on just a few pages.And yeah, don't worry, you can Google this as soon as you get home.It's all over the internet, right?And the part that made it contagiouscould well fit on a single Post-it note.And once a genius makes a data file,any idiot can copy it,distribute it worldwideor print it.And I don't just mean print it on this,but soon enough, on this.

好消息是2011年的生物黑客對(duì)我們并無(wú)惡意。他們是病毒學(xué)家。他們相信他們?cè)谕苿?dòng)科技發(fā)展。壞消息是科技不會(huì)凍結(jié)在一個(gè)地方，在接下來(lái)的幾十年里，他們的壯舉將會(huì)變得非常簡(jiǎn)單。事實(shí)上，現(xiàn)在已經(jīng)非常容易了，因?yàn)槲覀冏蛱煸缟狭私獾?，僅在他們利用CRISPR系統(tǒng)進(jìn)行基因組編輯的兩年后。就有巨大的突破使得基因編輯變得非常容易——簡(jiǎn)單到以至于高中就開始教授CRISPR了。這個(gè)東西發(fā)展的速度比計(jì)算機(jī)還快。那條緩慢的，笨重的白色線條是摩爾定律。這展示了計(jì)算機(jī)是如何變便宜的。那條陡峭有趣的綠線，則展示了基因測(cè)序如何變得越來(lái)越便宜。基因編輯，合成和測(cè)序，它們是不同的學(xué)科，但又緊密關(guān)聯(lián)，都在快速發(fā)展。通向王國(guó)的鑰匙是這些很小很小的數(shù)據(jù)文件。這是H5N1基因代碼的片段。只需要幾張紙就能裝下全部的信息。不要擔(dān)心，你回到家后就可以谷歌搜索它了。它在網(wǎng)上全都可以找到。而使它具有傳染性的部分字母用一張便利貼就能寫下。一旦一個(gè)天才生成了一個(gè)數(shù)據(jù)文件，任何白癡都能復(fù)制它，在全球分發(fā)或打印出來(lái)。我說(shuō)的不是這樣的打印，而是不久之后，像這樣。

07:17

So let's imagine a scenario.Let's say it's 2026, to pick an arbitrary year,and a brilliant virologist, hoping to advance scienceand better understand pandemics,designs a new bug.It's as contagious as chicken pox,it's as deadly as Ebola,and it incubates for months and months before causing an outbreak,so the whole world can be infected before the first sign of trouble.Then, her university gets hacked.And of course, this is not science fiction.In fact, just one recent US indictmentdocuments the hacking of over 300 universities.So that file with the bug's genome on it spreads to the internet's dark corners.And once a file is out there, it never comes back --just ask anybody who runs a movie studio or a music label.So now maybe in 2026,it would take a true genius like our virologistto make the actual living critter,but 15 years later,it may just take a DNA printer you can find at any high school.And if not?Give it a couple of decades.

讓我們想象一個(gè)場(chǎng)景。比如說(shuō)在2026年，任意選擇一年，一個(gè)天才的病毒學(xué)家，抱著推動(dòng)科學(xué)進(jìn)步的希望也為了更好的理解流行病，設(shè)計(jì)了一個(gè)新的臭蟲。它和水痘一樣具有傳染性，它和埃博拉一樣致命，并且會(huì)在病毒爆發(fā)前潛伏好幾個(gè)月，所以整個(gè)世界在問(wèn)題征兆出現(xiàn)之前都被感染了。然后，她的大學(xué)實(shí)驗(yàn)室被黑了。當(dāng)然，這并非科幻故事。事實(shí)上，僅最近一份美國(guó)起訴書就記錄了對(duì)300多所大學(xué)的黑客攻擊。于是包含那個(gè)臭蟲基因的文件被傳播到互聯(lián)網(wǎng)的黑暗角落。并且一旦文件散播出去了，它就再也回不來(lái)了——只需去問(wèn)問(wèn)做過(guò)電影和唱片公司的人。所以可能是在2026年，只有像我們的病毒學(xué)家這樣的天才才能制造出活生生的生物，但15年之后，也許一臺(tái)你能在任何一所高中找到的DNA打印機(jī)就能做到。假如還沒(méi)有？那就再給幾十年的時(shí)間。

08:26

So, a quick aside:Remember this slide here?Turn your attention to these two words.If somebody tries this and is only 0.1 percent effective,eight million people die.That's 2,500 9/11s.Civilization would survive,but it would be permanently disfigured.So this means we need to be concerned about anybodywho has the faintest shot on goal,not just geniuses.So today, there's a tiny handful of geniuseswho probably could make a doomsday bugthat's .1-percent effective and maybe even a little bit more.They tend to be stable and successful and so not part of this group.So I guess I'm sorta kinda barely OK-ish with that.But what about after technology improvesand diffusesand thousands of life science grad students are enabled?Are every single one of them going to be perfectly stable?Or how about a few years after that,where every stress-ridden premed is fully enabled?At some point in that time frame,these circles are going to intersect,because we're now starting to talk about hundreds of thousands of peoplethroughout the world.And they recently included that guy who dressed up like the Jokerand shot 12 people to death at a Batman premiere.That was a neuroscience PhD studentwith an NIH grant.

順便提一下：記得這張幻燈片嗎？把你的注意力放在這兩個(gè)詞上。如果有人這樣做，并且只有0.1%奏效了，800萬(wàn)人會(huì)死亡。那是911事件的2500倍。文明可能會(huì)幸存下來(lái)，但它將永久毀容。所以這意味著我們需要關(guān)注任何一個(gè)能夠直達(dá)目標(biāo)的人，而不僅僅是天才。所以今天，只有一小撮的天才能夠制造末日害蟲，還是0.1%的效率或者更高。他們傾向于穩(wěn)定和成功，所以不屬于這個(gè)群體。所以我會(huì)勉強(qiáng)感覺(jué)還好。但在技術(shù)進(jìn)步，和擴(kuò)散之后，并且成千上萬(wàn)的生命科學(xué)院的學(xué)生也參與其中了呢？他們每一個(gè)人都情緒穩(wěn)定嗎？或者再過(guò)幾年后，每一個(gè)壓力重重的預(yù)科醫(yī)學(xué)生也武裝上了呢？在那個(gè)時(shí)間段的某個(gè)時(shí)間點(diǎn)，這些圓就會(huì)相交，因?yàn)楝F(xiàn)在我們談?wù)摰氖侨澜绯汕先f(wàn)的人。最近還包括了那個(gè)穿得像小丑，在蝙蝠俠首映式上射殺12人的人。他還是個(gè)獲得了國(guó)家衛(wèi)生研究院資助的神經(jīng)科學(xué)博士生。

09:57

OK, plot twist:I think we can actually survive this one if we start focusing on it now.And I say this, having spent countless hoursinterviewing global leaders in synbioand also researching their work for science podcasts I create.I have come to fear their work, in case I haven't gotten that out there yet –

好了，情節(jié)曲折：我認(rèn)為我們?nèi)绻F(xiàn)在就開始關(guān)注這個(gè)問(wèn)題，實(shí)際上可以挺過(guò)這次危機(jī)。我這樣說(shuō)，是基于花了無(wú)數(shù)的時(shí)間采訪全球合成生物領(lǐng)域的領(lǐng)袖，同時(shí)也為我制作的科學(xué)播客研究他們的工作。我開始害怕他們的工作了，我可能還沒(méi)有表達(dá)出這個(gè)意思——

10:19

（Laughter）

10:20

but more than that, to revere its potential.This stuff will cure cancer, heal our environmentand stop our cruel treatment of other creatures.So how do we get all this without, you know, annihilating ourselves?

但更重要的是，要重視他們的潛力。這些東西將可以治療癌癥，恢復(fù)我們的環(huán)境，并停止我們對(duì)其他生物的殘忍對(duì)待。那么我們?nèi)绾卧诓粴缱约旱那闆r下實(shí)現(xiàn)？

10:36

First thing: like it or not, synbio is here,so let's embrace the technology.If we do a tech ban,that would only hand the wheel to bad actors.Unlike nuclear programs,biology can be practiced invisibly.Massive Soviet cheating on bioweapons treatiesmade that very clear, as does every illegal drug lab in the world.

首先，不管喜歡與否，合成生物已經(jīng)出現(xiàn)了，那么讓我們擁抱這個(gè)科技。如果我們做科技封鎖，只能把方向盤送給壞人。跟核項(xiàng)目不同，生物學(xué)可以在不可見(jiàn)的情況下進(jìn)行。蘇聯(lián)在生物武器條約上的大規(guī)模欺騙，以及世界上所有的非法藥物實(shí)驗(yàn)室，都清楚地表明了這一點(diǎn)。

11:00

Secondly, enlist the experts.Let's sign them up and make more of them.For every million and one bioengineers we have,at least a million of them are going to be on our side.I mean, Al Capone would be on our side in this one.The bar to being a good guy is just so low.And massive numerical advantages do matter,even when a single bad guy can inflict grievous harm,because among many other things,they allow us to exploit the hell out of this:we have years and hopefully decades to prepare and prevent.The first person to try something awful -- and there will be somebody --may not even be born yet.

第二，贏得專家。讓我們把他們召集起來(lái)。對(duì)于100萬(wàn)零1個(gè)生物工程師，至少有100萬(wàn)人要站在我們這邊。艾爾·卡彭會(huì)站在我們這邊。成為好人的門檻是如此之低。數(shù)量上的巨大優(yōu)勢(shì)確實(shí)很重要，即便當(dāng)一個(gè)壞人也能造成巨大的傷害時(shí)，因?yàn)樵谄渌芏嗍虑橹校麄冏屛覀兝眠@一切：我們有幾年甚至幾十年的時(shí)間來(lái)準(zhǔn)備和預(yù)防。有第一個(gè)人嘗試糟糕的事情——就會(huì)有另一個(gè)人——現(xiàn)在可能還沒(méi)有出生。

11:39

Next, this needs to be an effort that spans society,and all of you need to be a part of it,because we cannot ask a tiny group of expertsto be responsible for both containing and exploiting synthetic biology,because we already tried that with the financial system,and our stewards became massively corruptedas they figured out how they could cut corners,inflict massive, massive risks on the rest of usand privatize the gains,becoming repulsively wealthywhile they stuck us with the $22 trillion bill.

接下來(lái)，這需要跨社會(huì)的努力，你們所有人都應(yīng)該參與進(jìn)來(lái)，因?yàn)槲覀儾荒芤笠恍∪簩＜覍?duì)合成生物學(xué)的開發(fā)和利用負(fù)責(zé)，畢竟我們已經(jīng)在金融系統(tǒng)中試過(guò)了，我們的管家會(huì)變得非常腐敗，一旦他們知道如何偷工減料，給我們其他人帶來(lái)巨大的風(fēng)險(xiǎn)，并獲取私利，他們會(huì)在變得極端富有的同時(shí)，給我們留下22萬(wàn)億美元的債務(wù)。

12:14

And more recently –

還有最近——

12:16

（Applause）

12:18

Are you the ones who have gotten the thank-you letters?I'm still waiting for mine.I just figured they were too busy to be grateful.

你們誰(shuí)收到了感謝信了嗎？我還在等我的。我想他們一定太忙而忘記感謝了。

12:25

And much more recently,online privacy started looming as a huge issue,and we basically outsourced it.And once again:privatized gains, socialized losses.Is anybody else sick of this pattern?

最近，在線隱私開始成為一個(gè)大問(wèn)題，我們基本上是把它外包出去。并且再一次：私人得益，社會(huì)受損。有人討厭這種模式嗎？

12:39

（Applause）

12:44

So we need a more inclusive way to safeguard our prosperity,our privacyand soon, our lives.So how do we do all of this?

所以我們需要更包容的方法來(lái)保護(hù)我們的繁榮，我們的隱私，并且很快，我們的生命。那么我們?cè)撛趺醋瞿兀?/p>

12:56

Well, when bodies fight pathogens,they use ingenious immune systems,which are very complex and multilayered.Why don't we build one of these for the whole damn ecosystem?There's a year of TED Talks that could be given on this first critical layer.So these are just a couple of many great ideas that are out there.

當(dāng)身體對(duì)抗病原體時(shí)，它們使用巧妙的免疫系統(tǒng)，免疫系統(tǒng)相當(dāng)復(fù)雜，層次豐富。我們?yōu)槭裁床粸檎麄€(gè)該死的生態(tài)系統(tǒng)構(gòu)建一個(gè)？?jī)H僅討論第一個(gè)關(guān)鍵層面就足以舉辦整整一年的TED演講。所以這些只是一些很好的想法。

13:13

Some R and D musclecould take the very primitive pathogen sensors that we currently haveand put them on a very steep price performance curvethat would quickly become ingeniousand networkedand gradually as widespread as smoke detectors and even smartphones.On a very related note:vaccines have all kinds of problemswhen it comes to manufacturing and distribution,and once they're made, they can't adapt to new threats or mutations.We need an agile biomanufacturing baseextending into every single pharmacy and maybe even our homes.Printer technology for vaccines and medicines is within reachif we prioritize it.

一些研發(fā)人員可以利用我們目前擁有的非常原始的病原體傳感器，將它們置于一個(gè)非常陡峭的價(jià)格性能曲線上，這個(gè)曲線很快就會(huì)變得巧妙而網(wǎng)絡(luò)化，并像煙霧探測(cè)器，甚至智能手機(jī)那樣逐漸普及。一個(gè)非常相關(guān)的事項(xiàng)：疫苗在生產(chǎn)和銷售方面存在各種問(wèn)題，一旦生產(chǎn)了，它們就不能適應(yīng)新的威脅或突變。我們需要一個(gè)靈活的生物制造基地，延伸到每一個(gè)藥店，甚至我們的家庭。如果我們以此為先，疫苗和藥物打印技術(shù)就會(huì)變得觸手可及。

13:56

Next, mental health.Many people who commit suicidal mass murdersuffer from crippling, treatment-resistant depression or PTSD.We need noble researchers like Rick Doblin working on this,but we also need the selfish jerks who are way more numerousto appreciate the fact that acute suffering will soon endanger all of us,not just those afflicted.Those jerks will then join us and Al Caponein fighting this condition.Third, each and every one of us can be and should be a white blood cellin this immune system.Suicidal mass murderers can be despicable, yes,but they're also terribly broken and sad people,and those of us who aren't need to do what we canto make sure nobody goes unloved.

下一個(gè)，心理健康。很多有自殺式謀殺行為的人懷有嚴(yán)重的難以治療的抑郁癥或創(chuàng)傷后應(yīng)激障礙。我們需要像里克·多布林這樣的高尚研究者來(lái)研究這個(gè)問(wèn)題，但我們也需要讓更多自私的傻瓜認(rèn)識(shí)到，劇烈的痛苦將很快危及我們所有人，不僅只是那些遭受過(guò)的人。那些傻瓜會(huì)加入我們和艾爾·卡彭的戰(zhàn)斗來(lái)對(duì)抗這種狀態(tài)。第三，我們每個(gè)人能夠且應(yīng)該成為這個(gè)免疫系統(tǒng)的白細(xì)胞。自殺式大規(guī)模謀殺是可鄙的，但他們也是陷入絕望無(wú)法自拔的人，他們是那種不需要盡我們所能去確保沒(méi)有人愛(ài)的人。

14:48

（Applause）

14:53

Next, we need to make fighting these dangerscore to the discipline of synthetic biology.There are companies out there that at least claimthey let their engineers spend 20 percent of their timedoing whatever they want.What if those who hire bioengineersand become themgive 20 percent of their time to building defenses for the common good?Not a bad idea, right?

下一點(diǎn)，我們需要把對(duì)抗這些危險(xiǎn)置于合成生物的中心。外面有些公司至少聲稱他們讓他們的工程師花20%的時(shí)間做任何想做的事情。如果這些雇傭生物工程師并成為工程師的人把他們20%的時(shí)間用在為共同利益進(jìn)行防御上會(huì)怎樣？不是個(gè)糟糕的主意吧？

15:17

（Applause）

15:18

Then, finally: this won't be any fun.But we need to let our minds go to some very, very dark places,and thank you for letting me take you there this evening.We survived the Cold Warbecause every one of us understood and respected the danger,in part, because we had spent decadestelling ourselves terrifying ghost storieswith names like "Dr. Strangelove"and "War Games."This is no time to remain calm.This is one of those rare times when it's incredibly productiveto freak the hell out –

最后：這可不好玩。我們需要把智慧放到非常，非常黑暗的地方，謝謝大家傾聽(tīng)我的介紹。我們挺過(guò)了冷戰(zhàn)，因?yàn)槲覀兠總€(gè)人都理解和重視危險(xiǎn)，部分是因?yàn)槲覀兓藥资陼r(shí)間為自己講述可怕的鬼故事，諸如“奇愛(ài)博士”和“戰(zhàn)爭(zhēng)游戲”?，F(xiàn)在不是保持冷靜的時(shí)候。這是一個(gè)難得的時(shí)刻，把自己嚇壞是非常有效的——

15:51

（Laughter）

15:54

to come up with some ghost storiesand use our fear as fuel to fight this danger.

去想一些鬼故事，并使用我們的恐懼作為能量來(lái)對(duì)抗這個(gè)危險(xiǎn)。

16:02

Because, all these terrible scenarios I've painted --they are not destiny.They're optional.The danger is still kind of distant.And that means it will only befall usif we allow it to.

因?yàn)?，我所描述的所有恐怖?chǎng)景——它們不是宿命。它們是可選的。我們離危險(xiǎn)仍然有些距離。這意味著只有我們?cè)试S，它才會(huì)降臨到我們身上。

16:20

Let's not.

別讓它發(fā)生。

16:21

Thank you very much for listening.

謝謝大家的傾聽(tīng)。

16:23

（Applause）

（鼓掌）