除了圍棋已經(jīng)下不過AI，面臨科技威脅，這五個行業(yè)也岌岌可危

07 除了圍棋已經(jīng)下不過AI，面臨科技威脅，這五個行業(yè)也岌岌可危

2016年，技術(shù)和“分享經(jīng)濟(jì)”初創(chuàng)企業(yè)進(jìn)一步?jīng)_擊傳統(tǒng)行業(yè)——從優(yōu)步(Uber)和其他叫車應(yīng)用沖擊出租車市場，到Airbnb提供多種替代傳統(tǒng)酒店住宿的選擇。可是，哪些行業(yè)將面臨下一階段的數(shù)字化和自動化挑戰(zhàn)呢？英國《金融時報》記者們展望未來5到10年，哪5個行業(yè)將會縮水，甚至徹底消失。

1.實體旅行社

擾亂因素：在線旅游平臺（Online travel platforms）

如今，訂酒店、訂門票，手指動一動就能完成；自助游在年輕人當(dāng)中也更加流行。傳統(tǒng)實體旅行社該何去何從？

Tui is the world's largest tour operator, running high-street travel agencies under the Thomson and First Choice brands, writes Murad Ahmed.But its chief executive Fritz Joussen says the “end game” is to morph into a different kind of business — less reliant on selling package holidays and more focused on owning and operating hotels and cruise ships.

據(jù)英國《金融時報》穆拉德·艾哈邁德(Murad Ahmed)報道，途易(Tui)是世界最大旅游公司，以Thomson和First Choice等品牌經(jīng)營實體旅行社。但其首席執(zhí)行官弗里茨·茹森(Fritz Joussen)表示，“終局”是轉(zhuǎn)變商業(yè)模式——減少對度假套餐銷售的依賴，更著重?fù)碛泻瓦\營酒店和游輪。

Henry Hartveldt, founder of Atmosphere Research, says travel agencies will not wither away completely, but do need to change.“The ones that survive will be true experts,” he says.“They could be used to book a significant trip — a honeymoon, a significant family getaway, or a complex journey like planning a safari.

亨利·哈特費爾特(Henry Hartveldt)表示，旅行社不會完全消亡，但的確需要改變。“那些能夠存活下來的旅行社將是真正的專家，”他說：“人們可以通過它們來預(yù)訂一次特別的行程，如蜜月旅行或特別的家庭度假，或者籌劃游獵之旅這樣的復(fù)雜行程?！?/p>

“They will have found a niche and use digital tools to make sure people know who they are, as well as help their clients book… The question for the travel agency is do they need a retail storefront? To be honest, most don't.”

它們將發(fā)掘出一個小眾市場，并且在幫助客戶預(yù)訂的同時，也利用數(shù)字工具來確保人們了解它們的存在……對旅行社來說，問題是它們是否需要零售門店？老實說，大部分旅行社并不需要?！?/p>

2.小型零部件生產(chǎn)商和分銷商

擾亂因素：3D打印機(jī)（3D printers）

常去音樂會的人都知道，比起取票或者希望票能夠按時寄到，現(xiàn)場打印門票更容易。企業(yè)將很快意識到，同樣的道理也適用于零部件、設(shè)備和電子產(chǎn)品。

Bosch Rexroth, the drive and control unit of the private German electronics group, projects that in five to 10 years up to 40 per cent of the manufacturing equipment it uses could be printed instead of purchased.

私有的德國電子集團(tuán)博世(Bosch)旗下的傳動和控制公司博世力士樂(Bosch Rexroth)預(yù)測，在5到10年后，該公司可能打印，而非購買多達(dá)40%的制造設(shè)備。

In a demonstration of the latest methods this year, HP printed a lightweight quarter-pound chain link in less than 30 minutes — then attached it to a hoist and lifted up a car.

2016年，在對最新方法的展示中，惠普(HP)在不到30分鐘的時間里打印出一個重四分之一磅的輕質(zhì)鏈條，然后將這個鏈條連接到一臺卷揚機(jī)上，吊起一輛汽車。

Dr Hoevel says equipment manufacturing could become up to 60 per cent cheaper than conventional methods used today.

赫費爾博士表示，使用3D打印技術(shù)，設(shè)備的制造成本可能比使用今天的常規(guī)辦法低廉至多60%。

3.汽車保險公司

擾亂因素：無人駕駛汽車（Driverless cars）

想象一下這樣的未來：一列列的無人駕駛汽車安靜和小心地在城市和鄉(xiāng)村行駛，無縫接送乘客，道路上的車輛更少，這些車輛發(fā)生的碰撞事故也更少。

For some, this is utopia.For the world's insurers it may be just the opposite.Motor insurance is one of the mainstays of the industry.It generates about $260bn in annual premiums for major global insurers and $17bn in profits, according to research from Morgan Stanley and Boston Consulting Group.They estimate that the motor insurance industry has a market value of about $200bn.

對一些人來說，這樣的場景猶如烏托邦一樣美好。但對全世界的保險公司而言可能恰恰相反。汽車保險是保險業(yè)的支柱之一。根據(jù)摩根士丹利(Morgan Stanley)和波士頓咨詢集團(tuán)(BCG)的研究，汽車保險每年為全球各大保險公司帶來約2600億美元的保費收入，170億美元的利潤。它們估計，汽車保險業(yè)的市場價值達(dá)到約2000億美元。

New technology, the analysts say, puts a big chunk of that under threat in a variety of ways.First, fewer cars and fewer accidents mean less demand for insurance.In mature economies the market size could shrink by more than 80 per cent by 2040.Second, the insurance that is needed will be bought by companies such as car manufacturers, rather than by consumers.And as carmakers and tech companies get better at collecting and using data, they may be in a stronger position to sell insurance than the insurance industry itself.

分析師們表示，新技術(shù)以多種方式讓汽車保險市場的很大一塊遭受威脅。首先，上路的汽車更少，汽車的事故也更少，這意味著對汽車保險的需求減少了。到2040年，在成熟的經(jīng)濟(jì)體，汽車保險市場的規(guī)?？赡芸s水逾80%。第二，所需要的保險將會由汽車制造商等企業(yè)購買，而不是由消費者購買。而隨著汽車制造商和科技企業(yè)改進(jìn)數(shù)據(jù)的收集和應(yīng)用，在銷售保險上，它們可能處于比保險行業(yè)本身更有利的地位。

Some insurers are starting to react to the changing landscape.In the UK, Axa has joined a number of government-backed groups that are looking at how best to introduce driverless technology.In Japan, Mitsui Sumitomo and Tokio Marine, two of the biggest insurance groups, are examining new types of insurance products that might be needed.

一些保險公司開始對風(fēng)云變幻的市場格局做出反應(yīng)。在英國，安盛(Axa)加入一些得到政府支持的組織的行列，探索如何最好地引入無人駕駛技術(shù)。在日本，最大的兩家保險公司三井住友(Mitsui Sumitomo)和東京海上(Tokio Marine)正在考察市場可能需求的新型保險產(chǎn)品。

4.理財顧問

擾亂因素：“機(jī)器人顧問”網(wǎng)站(robo-adviser websites)

傳統(tǒng)理財產(chǎn)業(yè)監(jiān)管更加嚴(yán)格，成本更高，自動化“機(jī)器人顧問”網(wǎng)站成為投資者新寵。

Traditional financial advisers have encountered a blizzard of regulation in recent years and now face being usurped by algorithms.

近年遭遇一場監(jiān)管風(fēng)暴的傳統(tǒng)理財顧問，現(xiàn)在又面臨被算法排擠的窘境。

New rules introduced in 2013 fundamentally altered advisers' business model, banning fund houses from paying them commission and increasing the minimum level of qualifications advisers should have.

2013年出臺的新規(guī)從根本上改變了理財顧問的商業(yè)模式，新規(guī)禁止基金公司向他們支付傭金，并抬高了理財顧問的資格門檻。

The commission ban, which removed advisers' main source of income, forced those remaining in the business to either raise fees charged to retail investors or increase the minimum investment sum they would offer advice on.

傭金禁令切斷了理財顧問的主要收入來源，迫使剩余從業(yè)者要么上調(diào)對散戶投資者的收費，要么上調(diào)他們愿意提供咨詢的最低投資額門檻。

Suddenly unable to afford their adviser, swaths of investors began to turn to one of the new breed of “robo-advisers”, which emerged in 2012.

大批投資者突然間負(fù)擔(dān)不起他們的顧問，開始轉(zhuǎn)向2012年興起的新事物——“機(jī)器人顧問”。

5.汽車修理廠

擾亂因素：電動汽車（Electric vehicles）

電動汽車除了更加環(huán)保之外，故障也很少出現(xiàn)。是否意味著汽車修理廠即將倒閉？

Electric cars are often marketed to consumers on the basis that they are cleaner and cheaper to run than petrol or diesel rivals, writes Peter Campbell.

彼得·坎貝爾(Peter Campbell)寫道，電動汽車向消費者推銷的主要賣點，往往是它們運行起來比汽油車或柴油車更環(huán)保、成本更低。

But because they contain virtually no moving parts — other than the wheels — battery cars boast another advantage: there is almost nothing to go wrong under the bonnet.

但由于電動汽車除車輪以外幾乎沒有活動部件，它們還有一大優(yōu)點可夸口：其發(fā)動機(jī)罩下幾乎沒有什么部件會發(fā)生故障。

While that may be good news for motorists, it spells trouble for the thousands of garages that make a living servicing and fixing petrol or diesel cars.

這對駕駛者來說可能是個好消息，卻給成千上萬依靠保養(yǎng)汽油車或柴油車謀生的汽車修理廠帶來麻煩。

The aftersales sector is not only a huge source of jobs within the industry, it is also one of the most profitable parts of the motor sector.

售后服務(wù)部門不僅是汽車業(yè)一個巨大的就業(yè)來源，也是該行業(yè)最賺錢的領(lǐng)域之一。

詞匯總結(jié)

morph [m??f]

v.在屏幕上變換圖像；改變

But its chief executive Fritz Joussen says the“end game” is to morph into a different kind of business.

但其首席執(zhí)行官弗里茨·茹森(Fritz Joussen)表示，“終局”是轉(zhuǎn)變商業(yè)模式。

utopia [ju:'t?upi?]

n.烏托邦（理想中最美好的社會）；理想國

For some, this is utopia.

對一些人來說，這樣的場景猶如烏托邦一樣美好。

premium ['pri?m??m]

n.額外費用；獎金；保險費;(商)溢價

adj.高價的；優(yōu)質(zhì)的

It generates about $260bn in annual premiums for major global insurers and $17bn in profits

汽車保險每年為全球各大保險公司帶來約2600億美元的保費收入

financial adviser

財務(wù)咨詢師；財政顧問

Traditional financial advisers have encountered a blizzard of regulation in recent years and now face being usurped by algorithms.

近年遭遇一場監(jiān)管風(fēng)暴的傳統(tǒng)理財顧問，現(xiàn)在又面臨被算法排擠的窘境。

diesel ['di?z(?)l]

n.柴油機(jī)；柴油

Electric cars are often marketed to consumers on the basis that they are cleaner and cheaper to run than petrol or diesel rivals.

電動汽車向消費者推銷的主要賣點，往往是它們運行起來比汽油車或柴油車更環(huán)保、成本更低。