英國“金融城”地位不保？

倫敦“金融城”輝煌不再？此時投資需謹(jǐn)慎！

FT地產(chǎn)記者朱迪斯·埃文斯：

The gherkin, the cheesegrater, the walkie-talkie, the square mile in the capital known as the City of London is becoming as famous for the nicknames given to its skyscrapers as it is for the trading and business deals that take place there.

“小黃瓜”“起司刨”“對講機(jī)”，在倫敦市中心一英里見方的金融城里，這些摩天大樓的昵稱，已經(jīng)和這里的海量交易一樣出名。

And more are on the way.Three new tall buildings are under construction and several more have been given planning permission.If they all go ahead, that's millions of square feet of new office space in a small section of the city.But will there be enough demands to fill them?

還會有更多的摩天大樓出現(xiàn)在這里，三座新的大樓正在建造中，還有幾座已經(jīng)獲得規(guī)劃許可。如果她們?nèi)可像R，將給金融城內(nèi)這片狹小地帶新增幾百萬平方英尺的辦公空間。但是真的有那么多需求么？

FT保險業(yè)記者奧利弗·拉爾夫：

The answer, traditionally, would have been the insurance industry which is based in this part of the City.And they're here, because the Lloyd's of London is here.Lloyd's generates annual premium about 27 billion pounds.It is also one of the last bastions of the face-to-face trading in the city.So the people that trade here need to have their offices nearby.

按傳統(tǒng)來看，能回答這個問題的是保險業(yè)。這個行業(yè)大多在這一片金融城辦公。他們選擇這里，是因為（英國最大的保險交易場）勞合社在這里。勞合社每年保費(fèi)收入大約270億英鎊。它也是倫敦僅存的仍實行面對面交易的金融市場之一。在這里進(jìn)行交易的人們需要把辦公室設(shè)在附近。

Do insurance companies want a lot of new and potentially expensive office space? Time is tough for the insurers operating in and around Lloyd's.Prices have been falling for years.Price for some sorts of special reinsurance has fallen for 30% since 2011.Low interest rates also hurt profits.And the industry is going a way of automation as insurance tries to cut cost by using technology.Some analysts think the headcount of European insurance will fall by 25% between 2015 and 2025.

但是保險公司真的需要很多新的、租金可能非常高的辦公空間么？保險業(yè)正面臨艱難的年景，保險產(chǎn)品的價格已經(jīng)連續(xù)好幾年下跌，一些特殊種類的再保險的價格自2011年以來已經(jīng)下跌30%，低利率環(huán)境也在侵蝕保險業(yè)的利潤。這個行業(yè)還在迅速地實現(xiàn)自動化，通過技術(shù)手段來降低成本。一些分析師預(yù)測，歐洲保險業(yè)雇員的人數(shù)在2015至2025年間將減少25%。

朱迪斯·埃文斯：

On the other hand, insurance coming to the end of their leases may be looking for newer, more flexible office space.Mergers and acquisitions mean newly-created groups are trying to consolidate multiple sites into one building.Figures suggest that recently insurers have wanted less space rather than more.According to Deloitte, leasing to the industry has fallen sharply since 2014, from almost 450,000 square feet to less than 120,000 （square feet） last year.At the Gherkin building behind me, the reinsurance of Swiss Re is looking to sublet several floors of the building to another company.

與此同時，保險公司在辦公室租約到期后，可能會尋找新的、更靈活的辦公場地。在經(jīng)歷一輪并購和重組后，一些新成立的公司將把多個辦公室合并成一個。數(shù)據(jù)顯示，保險公司近年來對辦公空間的需求在減少，而不是增加。根據(jù)德勤的數(shù)據(jù)顯示，保險業(yè)租用的辦公樓空間三年來大幅下降，從2014年的45萬平方英尺（約）降到2016年的12萬平方英尺。在我身后的“小黃瓜”里，瑞士再保險公司正在考慮把幾層辦公樓轉(zhuǎn)租給另一家公司。

奧利弗·拉爾夫：

A lot of financial services businesses at top rate here in the City of London, might have to open new bases elsewhere in the EU after Brexit.In the insurance world, that might not mean moving a lot of people, but in other parts of the financial services businesses, it will do.Add it all together, it will cause a big drop in demand for office space in the City of London.Is this really the right time to be pouring billions of pounds into new offices?

（英國脫歐讓事情更加復(fù)雜）在金融城租用著最昂貴辦公樓的金融機(jī)構(gòu)，在脫歐之后可能需要在歐洲其他地方新設(shè)辦公室。對保險業(yè)來說，可能影響不是很大。但是其他金融機(jī)構(gòu)可能需要把很多雇員派往歐洲大陸。這些因素疊加起來，會使得金融業(yè)對倫敦金融城辦公空間的需求大幅度減少。現(xiàn)在真的是投入幾十億英鎊建設(shè)辦公樓的最佳時機(jī)么？

朱迪斯·埃文斯：

Developers and City of London planners are also putting their hopes on other industries moving here.Amazon, for example, now has an office in EC3.And planners want to attract more technology companies.Across London, take up of new office space by technology and media companies has exceeded banking and financial services since the 2008 crisis.There is also the growing phenomenon of financial technology, with start-ups helping insurers use social media data, for example.But many of those companies prefer offices in fashionable areas like Shoreditch outside the City boundary.

地產(chǎn)商和金融城規(guī)劃者只能寄希望于其它行業(yè)入駐，比如亞馬遜現(xiàn)在在市中心的EC3區(qū)設(shè)有辦公室。規(guī)劃者希望能吸引到更多的科技公司前來辦公。在倫敦城區(qū)各處，科技和媒體公司在2008金融危機(jī)之后新租用的辦公空間規(guī)模已經(jīng)超過銀行業(yè)和金融業(yè)。金融科技類公司更如雨后春筍般出現(xiàn)，比如幫助保險公司更好利用社交媒體數(shù)據(jù)的初創(chuàng)公司。但是許多初創(chuàng)公司喜歡在更時尚的地區(qū)辦公，比如金融城之外的肖迪奇。

奧利弗·拉爾夫：

The sculpted skyscraper which has 386,000 square foot of space is due for completion later this year.It has already secured three insurers for later tenants.But other skyscrapers planned for the area don't yet have construction timetables.The question is whether the demand for office space will be strong enough to convince the developers to push the button and start work.

我身后這幢建造中的摩天大樓在今年內(nèi)完工時，將提供38.6萬平方英尺辦公面積，已經(jīng)有三家保險公司確定入駐。但是其他規(guī)劃中的摩天大樓還沒有建成時間表，問題在于對辦公空間的需求能否充足到說服地產(chǎn)商按下破土動工的按鈕。

詞匯總結(jié)

skyscraper[?ska?skre?p?（r）]

n.摩天大樓，超高層大樓;特別高的東西

The gherkin, the cheesegrater, the walkie-talkie, the square mile in the capital known as the City of London is becoming as famous for the nicknames given to its skyscrapers as it is for the trading and business deals that take place there.

“小黃瓜”“起司刨”“對講機(jī)”，在倫敦市中心一英里見方的金融城里，這些摩天大樓的昵稱，已經(jīng)和這里的海量交易一樣出名。

premium[?pri:mi?m]

n.保險費(fèi);額外費(fèi)用;附加費(fèi)

adj.優(yōu)質(zhì)的;高昂的

Lloyd's generates annual premium about 27 billion pounds.

勞合社每年保費(fèi)收入大約270億英鎊。

headcount[?hedka?nt]

n.點人頭數(shù)總?cè)藬?shù)，職員總數(shù)

Some analysts think the headcount of European insurance will fall by 25% between 2015 and 2025.

一些分析師預(yù)測，歐洲保險業(yè)雇員的人數(shù)在2015至2025年間將減少25%。